T-bills may move $BTC more than the Fed

Market maker Keyrock argues that U.S. Treasury bill (T-bill) issuance is a key liquidity indicator that can influence "digital gold" more directly than central bank balance sheets.

Quick takeaways:

A 1% change in global liquidity could translate into about +7.6% BTC move in the next quarter (per their research).

Since 2021, the correlation between T-bill issuance and BTC price is reported to be around ~80%, with an ~8-month lead.

They expect the liquidity impact to show up more fully late 2026 / early 2027.

Institutional capital + spot ETFs may have reduced #bitcoin liquidity sensitivity ~23%, but the link still matters.#WhenWillCLARITYActPass