📰 Daily Market Update:
Retail traders are capitulating with heavy losses.
📊 Bitcoin STH Realized / Market Cap
What is STH Net Realized PNL?
This metric measures the actual realized profit or loss of Short-Term Holders when they sell or spend their BTC, by comparing sell prices with their original acquisition cost.
📈 Positive values → buying in profit (Greed)
📉 Negative values → selling at a loss (capitulation)
🔬 Key Observation
📉 The chart shows a sharp drop in STH Net Realized PNL to -$4.65B on Feb 5, coinciding with Bitcoin trading below $69,000.
This is the largest realized loss event since:
📅 April 17, 2025: -$2.16B
📅 August 5, 2024: -$2.93B
⏲️ Historically, similar deep negative readings aligned with major short-term holder capitulation, which later preceded strong price recoveries:
🚀 +94% rally after August 2024
🚀 +56% rally after April 2025
📊 [BTC] Binance Retail Traders Daily Buy/Sell Amount
This chart tracks short-term Bitcoin holder behavior by monitoring BTC flows to and from Binance, allowing us to observe emotional shifts among retail participants.
📈 Daily positive represents buy activity followed by withdrawals.
📉 Daily negative reflects deposits followed by selling activity.
🔬 Key Observation
📉 The chart highlights a large retail sell event on Feb 20, totaling ~13,800 BTC, marking the third major sell-off this month:
📅 Feb 13: Over 12,000 BTC sold
📅 Feb 6: ~27,800 BTC sold right after BTC dropped below $62,000
⏲️ Historically, short-term holders tend to sell near potential local bottoms, especially during periods of fear and emotional stress.
📊 Whales Screener
This model tracks netflows from 100+ whale wallets across BTC, ETH, and stablecoins.
🔬 Key Observation
📅 On Feb 20, the chart highlights:
📉 BTC withdrawals of approximately $365M
📉 ETH withdrawals of around $122M
⚠️ Earlier, on Feb 8, whales pulled $1.25B BTC in a massive withdrawal.
⏲️ Historically, such large withdrawals usually signal accumulation behavior.
Written by Amr Taha