CryptoQuant Quicktake

Following the recent market pullback that pushed Bitcoin and Ethereum toward key technical support levels, on-chain data shows a notable structural response. Binance’s USDT Exchange Reserve on the TRC20 network increased significantly, rising from 385M on December 24 to approximately 5.2B.

Key Takeaways & Market Analysis:

Liquidity Inflow During Support Tests:

The timing of this increase is important. A rise of roughly 4.8B USDT on the largest exchange while major assets approach support levels suggests elevated demand and positioning activity that may help absorb sell pressure.

Retail Participation Indicator:

Large institutional transfers are often associated with the Ethereum (ERC20) network, while TRC20 is commonly used by retail participants due to lower transaction fees. The increase in TRC20 reserves may indicate stronger retail engagement during the correction.

Stablecoin Positioning (“Dry Powder”):

An increase in exchange-held stablecoins typically reflects capital being positioned for potential deployment into BTC, ETH, or other assets. Rather than exiting the market, participants appear to be reallocating into stablecoins while waiting for clearer entry conditions.

Conclusion:

With BTC and ETH near major technical support levels and a substantial increase in TRC20-based USDT reserves, market liquidity conditions have shifted. Elevated stablecoin balances on exchanges can provide downside support and create the potential for renewed buying activity if sentiment improves.

Written by CryptoOnchain

A rapid outflow has been observed in the Bitcoin OTC market. However, it is necessary to monitor the data for a few more days to determine whether this is merely a temporary fluctuation. If the trend proves to be sustained, it could be interpreted as a positive signal for the market.

Previously, when OTC balances saw a slight increase, excessive fear spread through the market, with many anticipating a major downturn.

Now, as Bitcoin has climbed back to the $68K range, overall market sentiment appears to be gradually shifting. Whether this movement is simply short-term volatility or the beginning of a broader trend reversal remains to be confirmed.

Written by CoinNiel

Before the start of this year, and since September 2025, demand had been steadily declining. A persistently uncertain global backdrop, both macroeconomic and geopolitical, led investors, particularly larger market participants, to remain cautious.

However, their behavior appears to have shifted since the beginning of the year.

Stablecoin inflows to Binance originating from whales, defined here as transactions exceeding $1 million, have been rising markedly since December 28.

While the monthly volume of inflows from this investor segment previously stood at approximately $27B on Binance, it has now increased to around $43B.

Whale activity on Binance intensified notably as BTC approached the $60,000 level, a price zone that appears to have been interpreted as an attractive opportunity from a risk reward perspective. Interestingly, this also coincides with a period during which significant realized losses were recorded.

Rising stablecoin inflows to exchanges are generally viewed as a constructive signal, as they suggest a renewed willingness among investors to deploy capital.

This is especially relevant in the case of whale sized transactions, which involve sufficient capital to materially influence short term price dynamics.

That said, this positive momentum will need to persist for BTC to stabilize and potentially re establish a sustained upward trend.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update:

Retail traders are capitulating with heavy losses.

📊 Bitcoin STH Realized / Market Cap

What is STH Net Realized PNL?

This metric measures the actual realized profit or loss of Short-Term Holders when they sell or spend their BTC, by comparing sell prices with their original acquisition cost.

📈 Positive values → buying in profit (Greed)

📉 Negative values → selling at a loss (capitulation)

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The chart shows a sharp drop in STH Net Realized PNL to -$4.65B on Feb 5, coinciding with Bitcoin trading below $69,000.

This is the largest realized loss event since:

📅 April 17, 2025: -$2.16B

📅 August 5, 2024: -$2.93B

⏲️ Historically, similar deep negative readings aligned with major short-term holder capitulation, which later preceded strong price recoveries:

🚀 +94% rally after August 2024

🚀 +56% rally after April 2025

📊 [BTC] Binance Retail Traders Daily Buy/Sell Amount

This chart tracks short-term Bitcoin holder behavior by monitoring BTC flows to and from Binance, allowing us to observe emotional shifts among retail participants.

📈 Daily positive represents buy activity followed by withdrawals.

📉 Daily negative reflects deposits followed by selling activity.

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The chart highlights a large retail sell event on Feb 20, totaling ~13,800 BTC, marking the third major sell-off this month:

📅 Feb 13: Over 12,000 BTC sold

📅 Feb 6: ~27,800 BTC sold right after BTC dropped below $62,000

⏲️ Historically, short-term holders tend to sell near potential local bottoms, especially during periods of fear and emotional stress.

📊 Whales Screener

This model tracks netflows from 100+ whale wallets across BTC, ETH, and stablecoins.

🔬 Key Observation

📅 On Feb 20, the chart highlights:

📉 BTC withdrawals of approximately $365M

📉 ETH withdrawals of around $122M

⚠️ Earlier, on Feb 8, whales pulled $1.25B BTC in a massive withdrawal.

⏲️ Historically, such large withdrawals usually signal accumulation behavior.

Written by Amr Taha

In-depth data, including all metric breakdowns and visual trend analysis, is available in the full infographic. The information below is an executive summary of the on-chain panorama.

Amid $643 million in realized losses (Feb 19, 2026) and 46.08% of the supply at a loss, Bitcoin's capitulation reaches critical levels. But who is really selling? On-chain data reveals the specific groups leading the panic — and the picture is revealing.

WHO IS CAPITULATING

◾ Short-Term Holders (STH) in despair

→ SOPR at 0.98 (systematically realizing losses)

→ MVRV-STH at 0.73 (explicit capitulation)

→ Buyers from the last 6 months who entered near the top

◾ Medium whales distributing aggressively

→ Whales holding 1K~10K BTC lead the selling: -91.58K BTC (30 days)

→ Whales >10K BTC are also distributing: -22.28K BTC (same period)

→ Whale Ratio at 74% confirms imminent selling pressure from these large players

◾ Institutional ETFs accelerating outflows

→ $404 million outflow between Feb 17-19, 2026

→ Institutions reducing BTC exposure during stress

CONCLUSION

Capitulation is led by speculative STHs and distributing medium whales, with ETFs amplifying the selling pressure. While these groups panic sell or take profits, miners, small whales, and retail are quietly accumulating — a classic asset transfer scenario from weak hands to strong hands, typical of transition phases toward accumulation.

Written by GugaOnChain

In a market environment that remains under pressure, with BTC still undergoing a correction, it becomes essential to monitor not only the selling pressure but also the evolution of demand.

Since the beginning of the year, we have started to observe a gradual shift in the dynamic that had been weighing on Bitcoin demand until now. After reaching a low with a monthly cumulative apparent demand of -154,000 BTC on December 18th, demand has progressively improved, recently moving back into positive territory with around +1,200 BTC.

This reversal puts an end to nearly three consecutive months of negative demand, a phase that had largely contributed to the weak price dynamics observed so far.

In this context, apparent demand is calculated as the difference between new BTC issuance and the amount of supply that has remained inactive for more than one year. In other words, it helps estimate whether structural accumulation is sufficient to absorb newly created supply.

With selling pressure decreasing and demand showing signs of improvement, a constructive signal is finally beginning to emerge for Bitcoin, provided that this trend persists in the coming weeks.

Written by Darkfost

Data indicates that Bitcoin is trading near $67,000, while the scarcity index is approximately -0.0037—a reading that leans toward negative territory. This value suggests that the available supply on Binance exceeds the scarcity level, indicating a relative increase in Bitcoin availability on the platform compared with periods when the index is positive.

During periods when the scarcity index moves above zero, it often signals a decline in available supply and an increase in withdrawals to private wallets or long-term storage—conditions historically associated with bullish phases, or at least with periods of building strong price bases. The current negative reading, albeit slight, suggests the market is in a cautious phase, with some investors preferring to keep their coins on the platform, perhaps in preparation for selling or repositioning.

This reading is not a definitive bearish signal on its own, but rather reflects a transitional phase within the market cycle. In previous cycles, periods of low scarcity were often preceded by quiet accumulation before the index gradually returned to positive territory as demand improved.

The current scarcity index value of -0.0037, alongside a price near $66,000, points to a fragile balance between supply and demand. Monitoring any future shift of the index back toward the positive zone could provide an early indication of renewed upward momentum and the beginning of a stronger phase for the Bitcoin market.

Written by Arab Chain

Adjusted SOPR remains below 1, meaning coins are still being sold at a loss. This confirms that the recent drop triggered real distribution and emotional selling. The market has not fully transitioned back into a profit-taking regime yet.

However, Bitcoin continues to trade comfortably above its Realized Price (~$54.8K). Historically, as long as price holds above Realized Price, the broader bull structure remains intact. This is not a bear market configuration — it is a correction inside a macro uptrend.

The key trigger now is clear:

🔼 If aSOPR reclaims and holds above 1 → bullish continuation likely.

🔽 If aSOPR repeatedly rejects at 1 → consolidation or another downside sweep possible.

At the moment, data favors stabilization rather than collapse. The macro floor remains far below current price, limiting structural downside risk.

Base case: recovery phase forming.

Invalidation: sustained weakness below Realized Price.

Written by KriptoCenneti

Against a backdrop of rising uncertainty, investors on Binance appear to be taking precautionary measures by reducing their use of leverage across derivatives markets.

The broader macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has played a major role in sustaining the risk-off sentiment that has weighed on crypto markets in recent weeks, and the situation is not improving.

Donald Trump announced today the implementation of new 10% tariffs on all countries under section 122, after the Supreme Court ruled its tariffs illegal, alongside statements indicating a willingness to carry out limited strikes against Iran. These developments were accompanied by weaker-than-expected Q4 growth figures, coming in at 1.4%, while inflation surprised to the upside with Core PCE reaching 3%.

In such an environment, increasing risk exposure through leverage is generally discouraged. Market participants appear to be responding accordingly, as reflected in the BTC Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance, currently the most widely used platform for BTC futures trading. Notably, the exchange now accounts for more than 31% of total BTC open interest (CME excluded).

Throughout February, this indicator declined from 0.19 to 0.15 and continues to trend downward. Over the same period, approximately 30,000 BTC worth of open interest has been removed from Binance.

This suggests that open interest is falling rapidly as investors close positions amid ongoing price correction, while BTC reserves on the platform remain relatively stable. Such behavior is consistent with broader market dynamics. In periods of heightened uncertainty, reducing exposure becomes essential to limit downside risk.

While deleveraging tends to exert negative pressure on price action in the short term as positions unwind, it can ultimately serve a constructive structural role by resetting market conditions and laying the groundwork for a more sustainable bullish reaction over the longer term.

Written by Darkfost

Despite the US Supreme Court ruling that tariffs imposed under IEEPA are illegal, crypto asset markets have barely moved. The headline is significant, but this is not a “cash hits the market tomorrow” event. Any liquidity impact depends on legal procedures and political implementation.

The Court held that IEEPA does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs. As a result, certain tariffs could be subject to refunds. However, refunds are not automatic, and the process, scope, and timeline remain unclear. Importantly, tariffs under Sections 232 and 301 may still remain in place, meaning tariffs are not disappearing altogether.

Estimated refunds range from roughly $40B to as high as $150–170B, but the final amount depends heavily on claims, procedures, and litigation. Nothing is guaranteed.

Market impact is mixed. If refunds proceed, funds would shift from the Treasury General Account to the private sector, improving corporate cash flow and potentially supporting investment and risk allocation. At the same time, reduced government revenue could intensify fiscal concerns, putting upward pressure on long-term yields.

The accompanying Bitcoin Exchange Netflow chart highlights how macro trade shocks have previously coincided with sharp BTC drawdowns, particularly during tariff escalations and geopolitical tensions. Notably, risk-off periods triggered exchange inflow spikes and price declines, reinforcing Bitcoin’s behavior as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a consistent safe haven.

For crypto assets, the key is flow quality. Watch US 10Y yields, the dollar, ETF flows, stablecoin exchange inflows, and Bitcoin exchange netflows. Headlines matter less than implementation and rates.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

On-chain data reveals a dramatic flush-out in the derivatives market on Binance. The Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has experienced a steep plunge, moving in tandem with Bitcoin’s recent price correction.

On January 29th, while Bitcoin was trading at a high of $84,658, the ELR was highly elevated at 0.1980, signaling an overheated and highly speculative market.

By February 16th, as the price dropped to the $68,858 level, the ELR sharply cascaded down to 0.1414.

Data Interpretation

This massive approximately 28% drop in the Estimated Leverage Ratio highlights key market dynamics:

1. Aggressive Long Squeeze

The swift decline in ELR indicates a severe deleveraging event. The price drop triggered a cascade of liquidations, flushing out over-leveraged long positions and forcing traders to close their contracts.

2. Market Health Reset

While the immediate price action was painful, wiping out excess leverage is fundamentally healthy. It removes the “derivatives bubble” and leaves the market structure much lighter and less susceptible to extreme, sudden volatility.

Conclusion

With the Estimated Leverage Ratio significantly cooled down, the risk of further cascading liquidations is now reduced. The market has been cleansed of high-risk speculative positioning.

For a sustainable upward trend to resume, the market now requires organic buying pressure and genuine demand from the spot market to build a solid foundation.

Written by CryptoOnchain

A closer look at the on-chain data for Binance over the past month reveals a significant divergence between Bitcoin’s price action and the Exchange Stablecoins Ratio.

On January 17th, with Bitcoin trading at a high of roughly $95,108, the ratio stood at 0.00000716.

However, exactly one month later, on February 18th, as Bitcoin’s price plummeted to the $66,423 level, this ratio experienced a sharp upward spike, reaching 0.0000085.

Data Interpretation

The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio is calculated by dividing the exchange’s Bitcoin reserves by its stablecoin reserves. A rapid increase in this metric carries crucial market implications:

1. Depletion of Dry Powder

The surging ratio indicates that the supply of stablecoins (potential buying power) is shrinking relative to the supply of Bitcoin sitting on the exchange.

2. Selling Pressure Outweighing Demand

The strong negative correlation between the rising ratio and the approximately 30% price drop suggests that while investors may have deployed their stablecoins to “buy the dip,” the available liquidity was insufficient to absorb the massive selling pressure.

Conclusion

The market is currently facing a liquidity vacuum on Binance. Purchasing power has been significantly drained. Until we observe a fresh inflow of stablecoins returning to exchange wallets to replenish this “dry powder,” a strong V-shaped recovery remains unlikely.

Traders should exercise caution and prioritize risk management until this ratio begins to cool off, signaling renewed buying capacity.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Old whales have just realized +$208M in profits, marking the seventh event in the past two years where realized profits exceeded $200M for this cohort.

Historically, these spikes have not occurred in isolation. Each prior +$200M event aligned with short-term regime shifts in price action. In most cases, Bitcoin experienced immediate volatility expansion and, more often than not, formed local bottoms shortly after the distribution wave. Only in a minority of cases did these events coincide with local tops.

What makes this metric powerful is precisely the behavioral consistency of this cohort. Old Whales, wallets that have held BTC through multiple cycles, don't sell impulsively.

When they do realize profits at scale, it signals conviction about near-term price exhaustion or strategic repositioning. Their selling pressure, even if temporary, is sufficient to introduce liquidity imbalances that trigger outsized moves.

If history rhymes, this seventh event increases the probability of near-term turbulence, but also raises the odds that we are closer to a local exhaustion point than to the start of a prolonged bearish regime.

Old whales are distributing. The question is not whether they sold, but who is absorbing.

Market participants should monitor price action closely in the coming days. If the pattern holds, a volatility spike or definitive directional resolution is likely imminent.

Written by MorenoDV_

Movements like this in past have preceded major upward price movements in Bitcoin.

Historically, when there has been this level whale activity, Bitcoin price has been trading at market bottom levels.

Written by G a a h

Amid evolving digital asset market conditions, NEXO reached a structural milestone.

In Q3 2025, the platform’s total loan book rose to $2.04 billion, marking a nearly 69% increase year-over-year and lifting the 2025 quarterly average approximately 29% above 2024 levels.

2025 balances have remained consistently anchored near the $2 billion mark, suggesting robust loan demand rather than cyclical spikes. Notably, this growth occurred during a quarter characterized by historically high trading volumes but materially lower volatility, pointing to participation depth rather than stress-driven borrowing.

Conclusion:

Maintaining loan book levels above $2 billion through varying market regimes reflects balance sheet stability and sustained client engagement.

Should liquidity conditions broaden in a renewed expansion cycle, a higher equilibrium level in 2026 would be consistent with the current trajectory.

Written by burakkesmeci

Bitcoin Open Interest (OI), mainly linked to futures markets, represents the total dollar value of open contracts not closed.

On October 7, 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s latest ATH, Open Interest peaked at approximately $47.5 billion

Since then, OI has declined to around $21.6 billion, a contraction of 54.53%

This sharp decline in Open Interest over the past 4.5 months is due to:

Bitcoin’s price decline: the post-ATH correction triggered closures and liquidations of leveraged positions, significantly reducing speculative derivatives activity

Smaller notional contract size: as BTC’s price falls, the dollar value of open positions decreases, even if the number of contracts does not change proportionally

Structural deleveraging: after a phase of euphoria, the market enters a purge process where excess risk and leverage are removed

This OI compression suggests a cleansing of the speculative excess that dominated at the all-time high. Historically, such decompression reduces market fragility and lowers the probability of short-term liquidation cascades

Structurally, the market is now less leveraged and potentially more stable from a derivatives perspective — clearly visible in the attached chart, where OI contraction is progressive and sustained after the ATH.

Additionally, excessive liquidations tend to become less frequent under these conditions, as they usually occur when there is a strong imbalance in Open Interest toward longs or shorts, especially when total liquidation size is elevated. With OI significantly compressed, the impact of large-scale liquidation events declines.

The key variable going forward is whether Open Interest expands alongside sustained price recovery and spot absorption — signaling structural trend rebuilding — or if OI growth resumes in a premature, highly leveraged manner, increasing market fragility again. The quality of the next OI expansion will determine whether we enter a healthy accumulation phase or a new speculative cycle

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

ADX just pushed into the ~80% zone. This indicator doesn't tell you direction. It tells you how strong the current trend is.

What does that mean? The trend is most likely already exhausted.

📊 What ADX Does

Simple: it measures trend strength. High = strong trend. Extreme = trend likely peaking. It doesn't care if we're going up or down, it just tells you how aggressive the move has been.

Current reading at ~80% is the highest zone. Historically unsustainable.

🔍 The Pattern

Every time ADX has pushed into this extreme zone, the trend that brought it there was already done. Not about to be done. Already done.

Late 2018 capitulation, COVID crash in 2020, FTX-era selling in 2022. Every time ADX screamed this loud, it recoiled. Every time, a new trend followed.

ADX needs to come back down and reload before the next significant trend can emerge. Direction doesn't matter. The indicator is agnostic.

💬 My Take

I keep seeing the bear market debate everywhere. Honestly? I don't care. Bear, bull, those words mean different things to every person in this market. It's not an exact science.

What I care about is this: is the selling pressure exhausting itself? ADX at 80% after a sharp downtrend says yes, probably.

But "probably" and "definitely" are very different words.

The 80-to-60 range on ADX looks small. In a mean reversion environment, that range is where squeezes live. Choppy price action that tests your patience and plays with your mind before the next real move shows up.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

Does this mean reversal? Not necessarily. Mean reversion can grind for weeks. ADX doesn't tell you which direction fires next, and exhaustion doesn't equal bottom. What it tells you is the current trend ran out of fuel.

Current setup: strongest downtrend reading on this chart. Trend strength exhausting.

The indicator reloads. Then it fires again. Which direction, that's the question none of us can answer yet.

Written by RugaResearch

ADX just pushed into the ~80% zone. This indicator doesn't tell you direction. It tells you how strong the current trend is.

What does that mean? The trend is most likely already exhausted.

📊 What ADX Does

Simple: it measures trend strength. High = strong trend. Extreme = trend likely peaking. It doesn't care if we're going up or down, it just tells you how aggressive the move has been.

Current reading at ~80% is the highest zone. Historically unsustainable.

🔍 The Pattern

Every time ADX has pushed into this extreme zone, the trend that brought it there was already done. Not about to be done. Already done.

Late 2018 capitulation, COVID crash in 2020, FTX-era selling in 2022. Every time ADX screamed this loud, it recoiled. Every time, a new trend followed.

ADX needs to come back down and reload before the next significant trend can emerge. Direction doesn't matter. The indicator is agnostic.

💬 My Take

I keep seeing the bear market debate everywhere. Honestly? I don't care. Bear, bull, those words mean different things to every person in this market. It's not an exact science.

What I care about is this: is the selling pressure exhausting itself? ADX at 80% after a sharp downtrend says yes, probably.

But "probably" and "definitely" are very different words.

The 80-to-60 range on ADX looks small. In a mean reversion environment, that range is where squeezes live. Choppy price action that tests your patience and plays with your mind before the next real move shows up.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

Does this mean reversal? Not necessarily. Mean reversion can grind for weeks. ADX doesn't tell you which direction fires next, and exhaustion doesn't equal bottom. What it tells you is the current trend ran out of fuel.

Current setup: strongest downtrend reading on this chart. Trend strength exhausting.

The indicator reloads. Then it fires again. Which direction, that's the question none of us can answer yet.

Written by RugaResearch

That's what's happening now.

2020-2021: +500K BTC added in 12 months - front-running the bull run

2022 bear: -500K BTC - distribution complete

2023-2024: stealth re-accumulation, sub-30K, pre-ETF

2025: 1-year change rolling over hard

Whales are loaded before every major move. They're not loading now.

Price at 97K. Whale accumulation is decelerating. SMA(365) is turning down.

That's not a healthy setup. That's smart money stepping back while retail holds.

Written by IT Tech

Bitcoin is currently trading significantly below the average cost basis of ETFs. This indicates that a large portion of BTC ETF investors are now at a loss.

MVRV has also dropped below 1. This level signals that ETF investors are holding unrealized losses. Under such conditions, selling pressure may continue as loss driven behavior intensifies.

The drawdown has deepened, with both price and MVRV continuing their downward trajectory from the ATH.

In the short term, as long as MVRV remains below 1, psychological pressure is likely to persist. Since ETF investors are in the red, any recovery may remain weak. The realized price around $80K is likely to act as a strong resistance level.

In the medium term, if MVRV stabilizes in the 0.8–0.9 range, it could indicate that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. In that case, price may attempt a mean reversion toward the realized price. However, this scenario would likely result in only a short term rebound.

If MVRV continues to decline, ETF driven selling could trigger a second flush. In that case, downward pressure may persist until the gap between price and realized price narrows. Over the long term, this remains the scenario I expect to unfold.

Written by PelinayPA