🏩 The Market Has Fully Priced In a 100% Chance of a Fed Rate Cut Next Week

But the cut itself isn’t the story —

the signal behind it is.

When the market prices in a move at 100%, it means expectations have replaced uncertainty.

So the real surprise isn’t if the Fed cuts


It’s what happens after.

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💡 Rate cuts are easy to predict.

Liquidity shifts are not.

Because rate cuts ≠ liquidity injections.

The real story lives in:

‱ System reserves

‱ Repo markets

‱ Credit spreads

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In past cycles, policy led liquidity.

Today, liquidity leads policy.

Markets move first.

The Fed follows signals they don’t want to see.

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📊 For traders, this setup means:

‱ Price in early before the move

‱ Fade the post-cut rally

‱ Track real liquidity metrics:

ON RRP, TGA, and bank reserves.

👉 Flow matters more than the Fed.

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25bps vs 50bps doesn’t change direction —

it changes the tone.

‱ 25bps = “We’re cautious.”

‱ 50bps = “We’re behind.”

The message drives momentum.

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When everyone expects the cut,

the market shifts focus to what comes next — liquidity.

Policy sets the narrative.

Liquidity sets the trend.

And this time,

traders are one step ahead of the Fed.

$BNB #BinanceSquare #CryptoMarkets #VietCryptoNews #bitcoin #FedWatch2025

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