đŠ The Market Has Fully Priced In a 100% Chance of a Fed Rate Cut Next Week
But the cut itself isnât the story â
the signal behind it is.
When the market prices in a move at 100%, it means expectations have replaced uncertainty.
So the real surprise isnât if the Fed cutsâŠ
Itâs what happens after.
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đĄ Rate cuts are easy to predict.
Liquidity shifts are not.
Because rate cuts â liquidity injections.
The real story lives in:
âą System reserves
âą Repo markets
âą Credit spreads
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In past cycles, policy led liquidity.
Today, liquidity leads policy.
Markets move first.
The Fed follows signals they donât want to see.
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đ For traders, this setup means:
âą Price in early before the move
âą Fade the post-cut rally
âą Track real liquidity metrics:
ON RRP, TGA, and bank reserves.
đ Flow matters more than the Fed.
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25bps vs 50bps doesnât change direction â
it changes the tone.
âą 25bps = âWeâre cautious.â
âą 50bps = âWeâre behind.â
The message drives momentum.
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When everyone expects the cut,
the market shifts focus to what comes next â liquidity.
Policy sets the narrative.
Liquidity sets the trend.
And this time,
traders are one step ahead of the Fed.
$BNB #BinanceSquare #CryptoMarkets #VietCryptoNews #bitcoin #FedWatch2025
