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Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Circle (CRCL is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and also is above the 30 day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +3.6%) bolstered by a strategic partnership with Polymarket, which will now use native USDC as the primary settlement asset for its massive prediction market volume.
Institutional confidence saw a notable uptick as Cathie Wood ARK Investment Management LLC Invest actively increased its position, acquiring 218,000 shares valued at $13 million during a broader market dip.
Further support stemmed from the announcement that Bybit EU is launching high-yield campaigns for USDC and EURC, expanding the stablecoin's footprint across regulated European markets.
ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM) $17 billion launch volume signals that stablecoin reserves are rapidly migrating into a regulated, transparent ETF structure, effectively pulling crypto’s monetary base into the U.S. financial system.
This is massive because it institutionalizes stablecoin backing, reduces opacity risk, and could channel hundreds of billions of dollars in digital dollar reserves directly into Treasury markets under the GENIUS framework. Who benefits? -> Circle
Read our full report with 20+ crypto stocks and what drives them: https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-ec9f
Circle (CRCL is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and also is above the 30 day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +3.6%) bolstered by a strategic partnership with Polymarket, which will now use native USDC as the primary settlement asset for its massive prediction market volume.
Institutional confidence saw a notable uptick as Cathie Wood ARK Investment Management LLC Invest actively increased its position, acquiring 218,000 shares valued at $13 million during a broader market dip.
Further support stemmed from the announcement that Bybit EU is launching high-yield campaigns for USDC and EURC, expanding the stablecoin's footprint across regulated European markets.
ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM) $17 billion launch volume signals that stablecoin reserves are rapidly migrating into a regulated, transparent ETF structure, effectively pulling crypto’s monetary base into the U.S. financial system.
This is massive because it institutionalizes stablecoin backing, reduces opacity risk, and could channel hundreds of billions of dollars in digital dollar reserves directly into Treasury markets under the GENIUS framework. Who benefits? -> Circle
Read our full report with 20+ crypto stocks and what drives them: https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-ec9f
$17 Billion on Day One: How IQMM Could Supercharge Stablecoins, and Why Circle Stands to Gain
ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM) $17 billion launch volume signals that stablecoin reserves are rapidly migrating into a regulated, transparent ETF structure, effectively pulling crypto’s monetary base into the U.S. financial system.
This is massive because it institutionalizes stablecoin backing, reduces opacity risk, and could channel hundreds of billions of dollars in digital dollar reserves directly into Treasury markets under the GENIUS framework
IQMM is a first-of-its-kind financial product designed specifically to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the digital asset economy.
The ETF is the first to be purpose-built to meet the requirements of the GENIUS Act of 2025 (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act).
It allows stablecoin issuers to hold their reserves in a regulated, transparent, and highly liquid ETF format rather than managing a complex private portfolio of Treasuries.
Who is the main beneficiary? What will happen next? And where is this $17 billion (likely) coming from? Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/17-billion-on-day-one-how-iqmm-could-supercharge-stablecoins-and-why-circle-stands-to-gain
ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM) $17 billion launch volume signals that stablecoin reserves are rapidly migrating into a regulated, transparent ETF structure, effectively pulling crypto’s monetary base into the U.S. financial system.
This is massive because it institutionalizes stablecoin backing, reduces opacity risk, and could channel hundreds of billions of dollars in digital dollar reserves directly into Treasury markets under the GENIUS framework
IQMM is a first-of-its-kind financial product designed specifically to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the digital asset economy.
The ETF is the first to be purpose-built to meet the requirements of the GENIUS Act of 2025 (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act).
It allows stablecoin issuers to hold their reserves in a regulated, transparent, and highly liquid ETF format rather than managing a complex private portfolio of Treasuries.
Who is the main beneficiary? What will happen next? And where is this $17 billion (likely) coming from? Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/17-billion-on-day-one-how-iqmm-could-supercharge-stablecoins-and-why-circle-stands-to-gain
Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute
Overview: Crypto remains fragile with low liquidity, Bitcoin oversold, token unlocks approaching, and selective altcoin outperformance emerging.
Altcoin Model / Bitcoin Preference: We favor lower-beta Bitcoin exposure as most altcoins lack technical and fundamental support, keeping overall risk low despite selective opportunities like TRX.
Cosmos (ATOM): A major network upgrade boosted sentiment, but ecosystem migration concerns and governance uncertainty weigh on follow-through momentum.
Optimism (OP): Revenue loss from Base’s migration pressured OP, partially offset by buybacks and enterprise integrations.
Bitcoin (BTC): Geopolitical risk, stalled regulation, and ETF outflows continue to suppress sentiment and institutional demand.
Ethereum (ETH): Upgrade optimism and institutional accumulation compete with ETF outflows and ongoing selling pressure.
Solana (SOL): Stalled address growth and exchange inflows weigh on sentiment despite RWA growth and ecosystem expansion.
Ripple (XRP): Institutional stablecoin launches and declining exchange reserves support long-term utility despite ETF outflows.
BNB Chain (BNB): Cautious sentiment persists, though institutional futures access and ecosystem incentives provide structural support.
Tron (TRX): Treasury expansion and growing utility underpin relative resilience, with ETF speculation offering potential liquidity upside.
Jupiter (JUP): Supply-reduction proposals and strategic capital support sentiment despite cautious reaction to postponed rewards.
Full report, including a lot more crypto currency one liners, crypto equities, some macro one liners etc. find it all here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-one-liners-what-s-driving-the-market-in-a-minute-february-20
Overview: Crypto remains fragile with low liquidity, Bitcoin oversold, token unlocks approaching, and selective altcoin outperformance emerging.
Altcoin Model / Bitcoin Preference: We favor lower-beta Bitcoin exposure as most altcoins lack technical and fundamental support, keeping overall risk low despite selective opportunities like TRX.
Cosmos (ATOM): A major network upgrade boosted sentiment, but ecosystem migration concerns and governance uncertainty weigh on follow-through momentum.
Optimism (OP): Revenue loss from Base’s migration pressured OP, partially offset by buybacks and enterprise integrations.
Bitcoin (BTC): Geopolitical risk, stalled regulation, and ETF outflows continue to suppress sentiment and institutional demand.
Ethereum (ETH): Upgrade optimism and institutional accumulation compete with ETF outflows and ongoing selling pressure.
Solana (SOL): Stalled address growth and exchange inflows weigh on sentiment despite RWA growth and ecosystem expansion.
Ripple (XRP): Institutional stablecoin launches and declining exchange reserves support long-term utility despite ETF outflows.
BNB Chain (BNB): Cautious sentiment persists, though institutional futures access and ecosystem incentives provide structural support.
Tron (TRX): Treasury expansion and growing utility underpin relative resilience, with ETF speculation offering potential liquidity upside.
Jupiter (JUP): Supply-reduction proposals and strategic capital support sentiment despite cautious reaction to postponed rewards.
Full report, including a lot more crypto currency one liners, crypto equities, some macro one liners etc. find it all here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-one-liners-what-s-driving-the-market-in-a-minute-february-20
Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Altcoins remain fragile. Bitcoin is oversold. Token unlocks are coming.
But positioning across crypto equities and select alts is quietly shifting.
We break down where risk should stay low, and where asymmetric setups are forming.
A few names are quietly outperforming.
Optimism (OP-USDT is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30-day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of -24.4%) @coinbase Base blockchain is migrating away from the OP Stack.
This decoupling ends a major revenue-sharing partnership that previously contributed over 40% of the Optimism Collective’s lifetime income.
To mitigate the impact, the network has officially launched its first monthly token buyback program, committing 50% of remaining Superchain revenue to purchase OP on the open market.
Positive momentum was also supported by the liquid staking giant ether.fi migrating its entire non-custodial operations to OP Mainnet to take advantage of its enterprise-grade scalability.
Full report with 50+ crypto currencies, your must read guide every week: https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-1d8f
Altcoins remain fragile. Bitcoin is oversold. Token unlocks are coming.
But positioning across crypto equities and select alts is quietly shifting.
We break down where risk should stay low, and where asymmetric setups are forming.
A few names are quietly outperforming.
Optimism (OP-USDT is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30-day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of -24.4%) @coinbase Base blockchain is migrating away from the OP Stack.
This decoupling ends a major revenue-sharing partnership that previously contributed over 40% of the Optimism Collective’s lifetime income.
To mitigate the impact, the network has officially launched its first monthly token buyback program, committing 50% of remaining Superchain revenue to purchase OP on the open market.
Positive momentum was also supported by the liquid staking giant ether.fi migrating its entire non-custodial operations to OP Mainnet to take advantage of its enterprise-grade scalability.
Full report with 50+ crypto currencies, your must read guide every week: https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-1d8f
Coinbase Was the First Target. Now Hedge Fund Sharks Circle a New Crypto Stock as a Short Squeeze Looms
Crypto equities are entering a potentially decisive moment.
Weak earnings, elevated short interest, expiring lock-ups, and shifting regulatory signals are colliding at a time when positioning appears increasingly asymmetric.
While headline fundamentals remain mixed, options markets, insider behavior, and short positioning suggest that the next move may be driven less by earnings themselves and more by how crowded the trade has become.
Hedge funds were aggressive short sellers of Coinbase during the last Bitcoin bear market, but they made a critical mistake near the cycle’s end.
Even as Bitcoin began to recover and Coinbase shares rallied sharply, short interest continued to rise, a late bearish push that ultimately proved costly.
Today, despite its liquidity, competitive pressures, and still sizeable market capitalization, @coinbase is not the primary short target within crypto equities.
Instead, hedge funds have concentrated their bearish positioning elsewhere.
There is another crypto stock where short interest has built up meaningfully, and with several catalysts approaching, those “sharks” may need to reassess quickly, especially if the tide begins to turn against them.
For others, this may present a compelling opportunity to position ahead of the sharks, anticipating that crowded short positioning could unwind quickly.
Investors willing to act before the squeeze begins may benefit most if forced covering accelerates the move higher. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/coinbase-was-the-first-target-now-hedge-fund-sharks-are-circling-a-new-crypto-stock-and-a-sizeable-s
Crypto equities are entering a potentially decisive moment.
Weak earnings, elevated short interest, expiring lock-ups, and shifting regulatory signals are colliding at a time when positioning appears increasingly asymmetric.
While headline fundamentals remain mixed, options markets, insider behavior, and short positioning suggest that the next move may be driven less by earnings themselves and more by how crowded the trade has become.
Hedge funds were aggressive short sellers of Coinbase during the last Bitcoin bear market, but they made a critical mistake near the cycle’s end.
Even as Bitcoin began to recover and Coinbase shares rallied sharply, short interest continued to rise, a late bearish push that ultimately proved costly.
Today, despite its liquidity, competitive pressures, and still sizeable market capitalization, @coinbase is not the primary short target within crypto equities.
Instead, hedge funds have concentrated their bearish positioning elsewhere.
There is another crypto stock where short interest has built up meaningfully, and with several catalysts approaching, those “sharks” may need to reassess quickly, especially if the tide begins to turn against them.
For others, this may present a compelling opportunity to position ahead of the sharks, anticipating that crowded short positioning could unwind quickly.
Investors willing to act before the squeeze begins may benefit most if forced covering accelerates the move higher. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/coinbase-was-the-first-target-now-hedge-fund-sharks-are-circling-a-new-crypto-stock-and-a-sizeable-s
The Institutional Reset: What Bitcoin’s Hidden Positioning Shift Reveals
Despite Bitcoin’s 46% decline, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only $8.5 billion in net outflows, representing a relatively modest reduction compared to total ETF assets.
This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions, as well as long-term institutional investors with low turnover and longer investment horizons.
According to the latest 13F filings for Q4 2025, an estimated 55–75% of IBIT’s $61 billion in assets remains held by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds whose positions are largely hedged or market neutral rather than expressing a directional view on Bitcoin.
Market makers reduced exposure by approximately $1.6–2.4 billion during Q4 2025, as Bitcoin consolidated near $88,000, reflecting declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements.
This report explains the institutional positioning, hedging dynamics, and arbitrage flows that have driven Bitcoin’s recent decline and continue to influence its price behavior during the current consolidation phase.
Our must read report if you want to really understand what is going on: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-institutional-reset-what-bitcoin-s-hidden-positioning-shift-reveals
Despite Bitcoin’s 46% decline, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded only $8.5 billion in net outflows, representing a relatively modest reduction compared to total ETF assets.
This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions, as well as long-term institutional investors with low turnover and longer investment horizons.
According to the latest 13F filings for Q4 2025, an estimated 55–75% of IBIT’s $61 billion in assets remains held by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds whose positions are largely hedged or market neutral rather than expressing a directional view on Bitcoin.
Market makers reduced exposure by approximately $1.6–2.4 billion during Q4 2025, as Bitcoin consolidated near $88,000, reflecting declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements.
This report explains the institutional positioning, hedging dynamics, and arbitrage flows that have driven Bitcoin’s recent decline and continue to influence its price behavior during the current consolidation phase.
Our must read report if you want to really understand what is going on: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-institutional-reset-what-bitcoin-s-hidden-positioning-shift-reveals
A New Dovish Fed Chair and Falling Inflation Should Support Bitcoin. So, Why Isn’t It Rallying?
Many traders view Bitcoin as a hedge against excessive money creation and, at times, as a long-duration asset whose value could rise as inflation declines and real rates fall.
That simplification is often false.
The latest inflation release delivered another downside surprise, with inflation continuing to trend towards the Fed’s target.
Despite supportive macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum and has fallen back below $70,000 after a brief rebound, leaving many traders puzzled.
Recognizing how inflation affects Bitcoin was instrumental in our call for a new Bitcoin bull market at the end of 2022, and it also helped us identify the growing headwinds after September 2025, when Bitcoin entered its current bear market.
Understanding what is really going on will be critical in identifying both the end of the current bear market and the beginning of the next bull cycle.
Many traders have blindly followed some obscure liquidity data points without understanding what the market is really pricing in.
That has been costly for them.
In today’s report, we explain what is driving this dynamic and what it means for Bitcoin’s outlook: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/a-new-dovish-fed-chair-and-falling-inflation-should-support-bitcoin-so-why-isn-t-it-rallying
Many traders view Bitcoin as a hedge against excessive money creation and, at times, as a long-duration asset whose value could rise as inflation declines and real rates fall.
That simplification is often false.
The latest inflation release delivered another downside surprise, with inflation continuing to trend towards the Fed’s target.
Despite supportive macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin has struggled to regain momentum and has fallen back below $70,000 after a brief rebound, leaving many traders puzzled.
Recognizing how inflation affects Bitcoin was instrumental in our call for a new Bitcoin bull market at the end of 2022, and it also helped us identify the growing headwinds after September 2025, when Bitcoin entered its current bear market.
Understanding what is really going on will be critical in identifying both the end of the current bear market and the beginning of the next bull cycle.
Many traders have blindly followed some obscure liquidity data points without understanding what the market is really pricing in.
That has been costly for them.
In today’s report, we explain what is driving this dynamic and what it means for Bitcoin’s outlook: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/a-new-dovish-fed-chair-and-falling-inflation-should-support-bitcoin-so-why-isn-t-it-rallying
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Liquidity Is Quietly Leaving Crypto—Setting Up the Next Major Move
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
Crypto markets are at a critical turning point, with liquidity quietly leaving the system even as volatility and sentiment reach extreme levels.
Traders are unwinding crash hedges, positioning is lighter, and volatility expectations are shifting—conditions that often precede major directional moves.
At the same time, macro conditions are turning more favorable, but crypto has yet to respond, creating a disconnect that rarely persists for long.
This report reveals what derivatives positioning, liquidity flows, and volatility signals suggest about whether the market is stabilizing or preparing for the next major move.
A sharp decline in trading volumes indicates the rebound is losing momentum, and the risk of a gradual decline is higher.
The Crypto market cap stands at $2.35 trillion, down 2.1% from the week before, with an average weekly volume of $100 billion, down 49% from the average.
Weekly Bitcoin volume was $43.3 billion, -47% lower than average, while Ethereum volume was $21.4 billion, -58% lower than average. Ethereum network fees (0.04 Gwei) are in the 4th percentile, indicating low network usage...
.... and a lot more. What it all means for Bitcoin -> Full report.
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-liquidity-is-quietly-leaving-crypto-setting-up-the-next-major-move
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
Crypto markets are at a critical turning point, with liquidity quietly leaving the system even as volatility and sentiment reach extreme levels.
Traders are unwinding crash hedges, positioning is lighter, and volatility expectations are shifting—conditions that often precede major directional moves.
At the same time, macro conditions are turning more favorable, but crypto has yet to respond, creating a disconnect that rarely persists for long.
This report reveals what derivatives positioning, liquidity flows, and volatility signals suggest about whether the market is stabilizing or preparing for the next major move.
A sharp decline in trading volumes indicates the rebound is losing momentum, and the risk of a gradual decline is higher.
The Crypto market cap stands at $2.35 trillion, down 2.1% from the week before, with an average weekly volume of $100 billion, down 49% from the average.
Weekly Bitcoin volume was $43.3 billion, -47% lower than average, while Ethereum volume was $21.4 billion, -58% lower than average. Ethereum network fees (0.04 Gwei) are in the 4th percentile, indicating low network usage...
.... and a lot more. What it all means for Bitcoin -> Full report.
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-liquidity-is-quietly-leaving-crypto-setting-up-the-next-major-move
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Crypto and crypto-related equities are entering a critical inflection point, with inflation falling faster than expected and positioning reaching extreme levels.
Coinbase has quietly rebounded despite disappointing earnings, while several AI-pivoting miners are attracting billions in institutional capital and long-term infrastructure commitments.
Bitcoin has stabilized after forced liquidations and whale accumulation has resumed, but key structural risks remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, falling Treasury yields and shifting rate expectations are beginning to alter the macro backdrop.
To optimize its capital structure and mitigate direct share dilution, MicroStrategy announced a shift toward using perpetual preferred stock rather than common equity for future acquisitions. MSTR remains under pressure, with $4.8 billion in unrealized losses.
The question now is whether this marks the start of a powerful counter-trend rally, or the final setup before Bitcoin moves toward its ultimate cycle low.
Read our full report with 25 crypto stocks: https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-def6
Crypto and crypto-related equities are entering a critical inflection point, with inflation falling faster than expected and positioning reaching extreme levels.
Coinbase has quietly rebounded despite disappointing earnings, while several AI-pivoting miners are attracting billions in institutional capital and long-term infrastructure commitments.
Bitcoin has stabilized after forced liquidations and whale accumulation has resumed, but key structural risks remain unresolved.
Meanwhile, falling Treasury yields and shifting rate expectations are beginning to alter the macro backdrop.
To optimize its capital structure and mitigate direct share dilution, MicroStrategy announced a shift toward using perpetual preferred stock rather than common equity for future acquisitions. MSTR remains under pressure, with $4.8 billion in unrealized losses.
The question now is whether this marks the start of a powerful counter-trend rally, or the final setup before Bitcoin moves toward its ultimate cycle low.
Read our full report with 25 crypto stocks: https://strategy.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-stocks-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-def6
Coinbase and Galaxy Executives Say “Bullish” — Their Actions Tell a Different Story
Coinbase and Galaxy Digital shares have declined by −38% and −19% in 2026, marking one of their weakest starts to a year on record.
This sharp divergence has left shareholders questioning the disconnect between falling equity valuations and executives’ continued emphasis on an increasingly favorable U.S. regulatory and political environment for crypto.
The election of a pro-crypto president, a regulatory-friendly SEC chair, and the passage of landmark legislation such as the GENIUS Act have reinforced the view that the U.S. is positioning itself as the global center of digital asset innovation.
Throughout 2025, U.S. crypto executives publicly reinforced this optimism, emphasizing that these developments were laying the foundation for a prolonged bull market.
But beyond the optimistic messaging on CNBC, are their actions truly aligned with a bullish outlook? Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/coinbase-and-galaxy-executives-say-bullish-their-actions-tell-a-different-story
Coinbase and Galaxy Digital shares have declined by −38% and −19% in 2026, marking one of their weakest starts to a year on record.
This sharp divergence has left shareholders questioning the disconnect between falling equity valuations and executives’ continued emphasis on an increasingly favorable U.S. regulatory and political environment for crypto.
The election of a pro-crypto president, a regulatory-friendly SEC chair, and the passage of landmark legislation such as the GENIUS Act have reinforced the view that the U.S. is positioning itself as the global center of digital asset innovation.
Throughout 2025, U.S. crypto executives publicly reinforced this optimism, emphasizing that these developments were laying the foundation for a prolonged bull market.
But beyond the optimistic messaging on CNBC, are their actions truly aligned with a bullish outlook? Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/coinbase-and-galaxy-executives-say-bullish-their-actions-tell-a-different-story
Did Bitcoin Just Break a Multi-Billion Dollar Hong Kong Hedge Fund? Here’s What’s Really Happening
During Bitcoin corrections, trading activity in BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin ETF tends to surge, with volumes expanding significantly as institutional positioning adjusts.
During the most recent selloff, daily trading volume exceeded $10 billion, underscoring the scale of institutional capital's active repositioning.
Bitcoin’s rapid decline from $90,000 to $60,000 in just two to three weeks caught many traders off guard, both in speed and magnitude.
The sharp increase in ETF trading volume during this period suggests that the move was not driven by retail panic, but rather by large-scale institutional flows, hedging activity, and the unwinding of structured positions.
What is most striking is not the magnitude of the move, but how few market participants can clearly explain the underlying drivers.
Much of the discussion has focused on isolated events rather than a comprehensive analysis of on-chain activity, positioning, and market structure, which provide far deeper insight into what is happening beneath the surface.
Some observers have pointed to record trading volumes in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and the simultaneous spike in implied volatility as evidence that ETF-related flows triggered the correction.
Others have highlighted the role of Asia, and specifically Hong Kong–based hedge funds, noting that volatility in other high-beta assets such as silver has also been concentrated during Asian trading hours.
As we previously noted, nearly all of silver’s gains over recent months occurred during Asian sessions, reinforcing the view that regional positioning and balance sheet deployment have played an outsized role in recent market dynamics.
In the absence of a clear structural framework, this has led to speculation that the potential distress or unwinding of a multi-billion-dollar Hong Kong hedge fund may be the primary cause of Bitcoin’s decline.
However, while these narratives are gaining traction, they risk oversimplifying a far more complex set of structural forces.
Below, we assess the likelihood that the “unwinding” of a specific Hong Kong–based hedge fund is driving the move and, more importantly, what this reveals about the true state of the Bitcoin market and the success of the ETFs.
Let's look at the data and understand what is really going on: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/did-bitcoin-just-break-a-multi-billion-dollar-hong-kong-hedge-fund-here-s-what-s-really-happening
During the most recent selloff, daily trading volume exceeded $10 billion, underscoring the scale of institutional capital's active repositioning.
Bitcoin’s rapid decline from $90,000 to $60,000 in just two to three weeks caught many traders off guard, both in speed and magnitude.
The sharp increase in ETF trading volume during this period suggests that the move was not driven by retail panic, but rather by large-scale institutional flows, hedging activity, and the unwinding of structured positions.
What is most striking is not the magnitude of the move, but how few market participants can clearly explain the underlying drivers.
Much of the discussion has focused on isolated events rather than a comprehensive analysis of on-chain activity, positioning, and market structure, which provide far deeper insight into what is happening beneath the surface.
Some observers have pointed to record trading volumes in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF and the simultaneous spike in implied volatility as evidence that ETF-related flows triggered the correction.
Others have highlighted the role of Asia, and specifically Hong Kong–based hedge funds, noting that volatility in other high-beta assets such as silver has also been concentrated during Asian trading hours.
As we previously noted, nearly all of silver’s gains over recent months occurred during Asian sessions, reinforcing the view that regional positioning and balance sheet deployment have played an outsized role in recent market dynamics.
In the absence of a clear structural framework, this has led to speculation that the potential distress or unwinding of a multi-billion-dollar Hong Kong hedge fund may be the primary cause of Bitcoin’s decline.
However, while these narratives are gaining traction, they risk oversimplifying a far more complex set of structural forces.
Below, we assess the likelihood that the “unwinding” of a specific Hong Kong–based hedge fund is driving the move and, more importantly, what this reveals about the true state of the Bitcoin market and the success of the ETFs.
Let's look at the data and understand what is really going on: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/did-bitcoin-just-break-a-multi-billion-dollar-hong-kong-hedge-fund-here-s-what-s-really-happening
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Is a Final Washout Still Ahead?
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
Many traders are now asking what comes next, and as we review the latest data and positioning trends, it is worth revisiting the conclusion from last week’s report, which already outlined the framework for understanding the current market environment:
“Last week, we cautioned that Bitcoin’s break below $87,000 should be respected.
With Bitcoin down 12% over the past week and Ethereum down 17%, that call proved timely, allowing us to sidestep the bulk of the correction.
Bitcoin is now approaching our $73,000 support level, a zone that capped prices for nearly five months in 2024 before the post-election rally pushed the market decisively higher.
However, current flows suggest sentiment has shifted meaningfully. Stablecoin off-ramps and persistent ETF outflows indicate investors are not yet positioned to buy the dip.
Notably, Circle has seen nearly $10 billion in stablecoin redemptions, pointing to reduced participation from more regulated market participants.
While sentiment and technical indicators are approaching extreme levels, the broader downtrend remains intact.
In the absence of a clear catalyst, there is little urgency to step in.
Positioning dynamics suggest traders remain focused on deleveraging and position unwinds rather than on preparing for a typical snapback rally.”
So the above was from our report last week, and in our report below, we look at the latest data.
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-is-a-final-washout-still-ahead
The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts.
Why this report matters
Many traders are now asking what comes next, and as we review the latest data and positioning trends, it is worth revisiting the conclusion from last week’s report, which already outlined the framework for understanding the current market environment:
“Last week, we cautioned that Bitcoin’s break below $87,000 should be respected.
With Bitcoin down 12% over the past week and Ethereum down 17%, that call proved timely, allowing us to sidestep the bulk of the correction.
Bitcoin is now approaching our $73,000 support level, a zone that capped prices for nearly five months in 2024 before the post-election rally pushed the market decisively higher.
However, current flows suggest sentiment has shifted meaningfully. Stablecoin off-ramps and persistent ETF outflows indicate investors are not yet positioned to buy the dip.
Notably, Circle has seen nearly $10 billion in stablecoin redemptions, pointing to reduced participation from more regulated market participants.
While sentiment and technical indicators are approaching extreme levels, the broader downtrend remains intact.
In the absence of a clear catalyst, there is little urgency to step in.
Positioning dynamics suggest traders remain focused on deleveraging and position unwinds rather than on preparing for a typical snapback rally.”
So the above was from our report last week, and in our report below, we look at the latest data.
https://update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-weekly-crypto-kickoff-is-a-final-washout-still-ahead
Crypto One Liners: What’s Driving the Market in a Minute CRYPTO CURRENCIES
OVERVIEW
Trading volumes during the crash were significantly lower than during the October selloff, indicating thinner liquidity and derivatives-driven activity rather than broad market participation.
Our tactical altcoin model has remained bearish since mid-January, with recent declines reinforcing the elevated risk environment as most altcoins remain structurally weak.
Our trend model remains bearish following Bitcoin’s break below $87,000, and any recovery below $91,000 is likely to remain a countertrend rally.
CRYPTO CURRENCIES
Bitcoin’s sharp decline was driven by ETF outflows, liquidations, and derivatives positioning, with a partial rebound emerging as market conditions stabilized.
Ethereum fell sharply due to institutional outflows, liquidations, and whale selling, highlighting continued structural weakness.
Solana declined amid forced liquidations and security concerns, which significantly weakened investor confidence.
Ripple strengthened its institutional positioning through infrastructure expansion and increased ecosystem utility despite broader market weakness.
BNB faced continued selling pressure driven by security concerns and heightened sensitivity to exchange-related risks.
And a lot more one liners for crypto currencies and crypto equities....
For full list of one liners: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-one-liners-what-s-driving-the-market-in-a-minute-february-8
OVERVIEW
Trading volumes during the crash were significantly lower than during the October selloff, indicating thinner liquidity and derivatives-driven activity rather than broad market participation.
Our tactical altcoin model has remained bearish since mid-January, with recent declines reinforcing the elevated risk environment as most altcoins remain structurally weak.
Our trend model remains bearish following Bitcoin’s break below $87,000, and any recovery below $91,000 is likely to remain a countertrend rally.
CRYPTO CURRENCIES
Bitcoin’s sharp decline was driven by ETF outflows, liquidations, and derivatives positioning, with a partial rebound emerging as market conditions stabilized.
Ethereum fell sharply due to institutional outflows, liquidations, and whale selling, highlighting continued structural weakness.
Solana declined amid forced liquidations and security concerns, which significantly weakened investor confidence.
Ripple strengthened its institutional positioning through infrastructure expansion and increased ecosystem utility despite broader market weakness.
BNB faced continued selling pressure driven by security concerns and heightened sensitivity to exchange-related risks.
And a lot more one liners for crypto currencies and crypto equities....
For full list of one liners: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-one-liners-what-s-driving-the-market-in-a-minute-february-8
Crypto Trends Chart Book: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
In last week's report, we pointed out that Bitcoin was breaking the $83,965 support level and the drivers behind the weakness.
Let's look at the latest drivers.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30 day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of -11.6%) plunged toward $60,000 after heavy ETF outflows and macro uncertainty triggered risk-off selling and liquidity stress across crypto markets.
The selloff intensified as leveraged positions were liquidated and derivatives-related activity accelerated the decline, amplifying volatility and forcing rapid price moves.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair added pressure by raising expectations of tighter monetary policy and reducing investor appetite for risk assets.
Bitcoin rebounded sharply above $70,000 after global equities stabilized and oversold conditions attracted renewed buying.
Read our full report with 50+ crypto coins (see link below) https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-432b
In last week's report, we pointed out that Bitcoin was breaking the $83,965 support level and the drivers behind the weakness.
Let's look at the latest drivers.
Bitcoin (BTC-USD is below the 7-day moving average -> bearish, and is below the 30 day moving average -> bearish, with 1 week change of -11.6%) plunged toward $60,000 after heavy ETF outflows and macro uncertainty triggered risk-off selling and liquidity stress across crypto markets.
The selloff intensified as leveraged positions were liquidated and derivatives-related activity accelerated the decline, amplifying volatility and forcing rapid price moves.
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair added pressure by raising expectations of tighter monetary policy and reducing investor appetite for risk assets.
Bitcoin rebounded sharply above $70,000 after global equities stabilized and oversold conditions attracted renewed buying.
Read our full report with 50+ crypto coins (see link below) https://signal.10xresearch.com/p/crypto-trends-chart-book-understand-what-is-moving-in-the-market-and-why-432b
Bitcoin Crashed on Options. Here’s Why That Changes Everything Going Forward
Bitcoin declined by 28% over the past week, marking one of the sharpest weekly corrections of the current cycle.
Despite total Bitcoin options notional declining by 48% since October 10, 2025, from $52 billion to $27 billion, trading activity remained exceptionally elevated, with Bitcoin options recording their third-most-active day on record.
In our Friday, February 6 report, we noted that “the $60,000–65,000 region represents the next area where prior consolidation and psychological support could slow downside momentum.
Within this framework, the decline from $125,000 to $62,000 can be interpreted as Wave A. While a consolidation phase or short countertrend rally (Wave B) is possible in the near term...”
Just thirty minutes later, Bitcoin bottomed around $60,000, with both the crash and the subsequent rebound largely driven by dynamics within the options market itself.
This underscores why understanding positioning, liquidity gaps, and shifts in implied volatility has become increasingly critical.
Derivatives activity is now exerting a dominant influence on price action, with a significant portion of Bitcoin ETF flows linked not to long-only investment demand, but to facilitating options market-making and volatility trading strategies.
In effect, derivatives positioning is increasingly driving spot price behavior, rather than simply responding to it.
This is a material change from prior liquidations, with some of the effects explained below.
Read our report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-crashed-on-options-here-s-why-that-changes-everything-going-forward
Bitcoin declined by 28% over the past week, marking one of the sharpest weekly corrections of the current cycle.
Despite total Bitcoin options notional declining by 48% since October 10, 2025, from $52 billion to $27 billion, trading activity remained exceptionally elevated, with Bitcoin options recording their third-most-active day on record.
In our Friday, February 6 report, we noted that “the $60,000–65,000 region represents the next area where prior consolidation and psychological support could slow downside momentum.
Within this framework, the decline from $125,000 to $62,000 can be interpreted as Wave A. While a consolidation phase or short countertrend rally (Wave B) is possible in the near term...”
Just thirty minutes later, Bitcoin bottomed around $60,000, with both the crash and the subsequent rebound largely driven by dynamics within the options market itself.
This underscores why understanding positioning, liquidity gaps, and shifts in implied volatility has become increasingly critical.
Derivatives activity is now exerting a dominant influence on price action, with a significant portion of Bitcoin ETF flows linked not to long-only investment demand, but to facilitating options market-making and volatility trading strategies.
In effect, derivatives positioning is increasingly driving spot price behavior, rather than simply responding to it.
This is a material change from prior liquidations, with some of the effects explained below.
Read our report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-crashed-on-options-here-s-why-that-changes-everything-going-forward
The Hidden Shift That Triggered Bitcoin’s Sudden Collapse
Bitcoin’s recent sell-off may have appeared sudden, but the underlying pressure had been building quietly for months.
As early as November, subtle shifts in exchange flows and institutional positioning signaled that key market participants were beginning to reduce exposure, even as prices appeared stable on the surface.
These early warning signs pointed to a fragile market structure that was increasingly vulnerable to external catalysts.
That catalyst arrived at the end of January, when a key policy development triggered a breakdown in price levels that had previously held firm.
What initially looked like a routine correction quickly accelerated, invalidating several technical support zones and reinforcing the view that the current phase is part of a larger, structured cycle rather than a random move lower.
Importantly, the timing and pattern of the selling reveal clues about who is driving the market, and why this phase may not yet be complete.
In our latest report, we break down the positioning dynamics, structural signals, and cycle framework that explain what is happening now, and what typically comes next. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-hidden-shift-that-triggered-bitcoin-s-sudden-collapse
Bitcoin’s recent sell-off may have appeared sudden, but the underlying pressure had been building quietly for months.
As early as November, subtle shifts in exchange flows and institutional positioning signaled that key market participants were beginning to reduce exposure, even as prices appeared stable on the surface.
These early warning signs pointed to a fragile market structure that was increasingly vulnerable to external catalysts.
That catalyst arrived at the end of January, when a key policy development triggered a breakdown in price levels that had previously held firm.
What initially looked like a routine correction quickly accelerated, invalidating several technical support zones and reinforcing the view that the current phase is part of a larger, structured cycle rather than a random move lower.
Importantly, the timing and pattern of the selling reveal clues about who is driving the market, and why this phase may not yet be complete.
In our latest report, we break down the positioning dynamics, structural signals, and cycle framework that explain what is happening now, and what typically comes next. https://update.10xresearch.com/p/the-hidden-shift-that-triggered-bitcoin-s-sudden-collapse
Bitcoin Cycle Low Level Identified — Our Elliott Wave Model Reveals the Exact Time & Zone
Bitcoin has now declined by approximately $50,000 from the level at which we first warned that the market was transitioning into a bear phase (October 22, 2025, here) and that the “ice wall” was breaking (October 30, 2025, see our website).
We also published a YouTube video outlining the key indicators we were monitoring, all of which clearly indicated the onset of a bear market (see link in bio).
This is precisely where monitoring trends on our dashboard, available to Trading Signals subscribers, has proven invaluable, as it has provided clear, real-time confirmation of when and where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies transitioned into sustained bearish downtrends.
While no framework is flawless, our process has successfully identified the cycle low, the subsequent top, and numerous key inflection points in between, underscoring the robustness and reliability of the signals we continue to monitor.
Historically, Bitcoin rarely declines in a straight line, and intermittent relief rallies are common.
However, when belief systems shift and dominant narratives begin to unravel, corrections tend to be swift and disorderly.
As we highlighted at the time, a key vulnerability was extreme overpositioning, which increases the risk that widely watched technical support levels fail to hold as forced liquidations accelerate.
One of the clearest signals was the persistent discount at which Bitcoin traded on Coinbase, indicating sustained selling pressure from US institutional investors.
By our estimates, this institutional overexposure amounted to roughly $30 billion (here), a meaningful imbalance that materially amplified downside risk.
In a detailed analysis sent to more asset-allocation-focused Trading Strategy subscribers, we also examined Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave structure across both the prior and most recent bull cycles.
As one of our Trading Strategy subscribers, who exited near the cycle top after we turned bearish at $112,000–$113,000, recently noted: “Trading Strategy provides a level of confidence in decision-making that is essential for executing with conviction, exactly what hedge fund managers need.”
The last two Bitcoin bull markets exhibited remarkably clean technical formations not only during the advance but also throughout the subsequent decline.
This framework provides a valuable roadmap for identifying where the final phase of the correction may unfold and where a durable cycle low is most likely to form.
See January 26 report which warned about the break of the $87,000 level.
Based on our extensive elliot wave analysis, we have identified the exact time and zone when Bitcoin is likely bottoming out.
If this is correct, it could have major implications for those catching the next bull run. Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-cycle-low-level-identified-our-elliott-wave-model-reveals-the-exact-time-zone
We also published a YouTube video outlining the key indicators we were monitoring, all of which clearly indicated the onset of a bear market (see link in bio).
This is precisely where monitoring trends on our dashboard, available to Trading Signals subscribers, has proven invaluable, as it has provided clear, real-time confirmation of when and where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies transitioned into sustained bearish downtrends.
While no framework is flawless, our process has successfully identified the cycle low, the subsequent top, and numerous key inflection points in between, underscoring the robustness and reliability of the signals we continue to monitor.
Historically, Bitcoin rarely declines in a straight line, and intermittent relief rallies are common.
However, when belief systems shift and dominant narratives begin to unravel, corrections tend to be swift and disorderly.
As we highlighted at the time, a key vulnerability was extreme overpositioning, which increases the risk that widely watched technical support levels fail to hold as forced liquidations accelerate.
One of the clearest signals was the persistent discount at which Bitcoin traded on Coinbase, indicating sustained selling pressure from US institutional investors.
By our estimates, this institutional overexposure amounted to roughly $30 billion (here), a meaningful imbalance that materially amplified downside risk.
In a detailed analysis sent to more asset-allocation-focused Trading Strategy subscribers, we also examined Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave structure across both the prior and most recent bull cycles.
As one of our Trading Strategy subscribers, who exited near the cycle top after we turned bearish at $112,000–$113,000, recently noted: “Trading Strategy provides a level of confidence in decision-making that is essential for executing with conviction, exactly what hedge fund managers need.”
The last two Bitcoin bull markets exhibited remarkably clean technical formations not only during the advance but also throughout the subsequent decline.
This framework provides a valuable roadmap for identifying where the final phase of the correction may unfold and where a durable cycle low is most likely to form.
See January 26 report which warned about the break of the $87,000 level.
Based on our extensive elliot wave analysis, we have identified the exact time and zone when Bitcoin is likely bottoming out.
If this is correct, it could have major implications for those catching the next bull run. Full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-cycle-low-level-identified-our-elliott-wave-model-reveals-the-exact-time-zone
Bitcoin’s $30+ Billion Overhang: Where the Cycle Low Likely Forms
Shortly after the Bahamas FTX conference in early 2022, I presented a scenario arguing that, if Bitcoin followed prior cycle dynamics, prices could decline from around $40,000 to below $20,000, with a potential bottom forming by October 2022.
I was mentally prepared for the correction despite prevailing optimism at the time, particularly as key industry players such as FTX and Binance appeared to have virtually unlimited capital to acquire distressed competitors and to backstop the market.
While extrapolating from only a handful of historical cycles is not statistically robust, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown that cycle analysis, despite its simplicity, can be an effective way to step back and understand how market psychology evolves through distinct phases.
Each cycle introduces new narratives and promoters, often successfully attracting billions and, in this cycle, tens of billions of dollars in capital for single investments.
Ironically, it is the subsequent reassessment of these allocations by investors, and the unwinding of the capital raised, that is now exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
This dynamic closely resembles the forced liquidations of the summer of 2022.
At current levels, the $3.5 billion in paper losses facing MicroStrategy mirrors the scale of the collapse of Three Arrows Capital.
Meanwhile, Bitmine’s staggering $8 billion paper loss draws a sobering (financial) parallel to the losses sustained by FTX users.
While the magnitude of these drawdowns echoes that of the 2022 bear market, history suggests that this cycle will eventually find its floor.
Below, we outline the expected timing of Bitcoin's next cycle low and the price levels likely to accompany it.
See when and where we expect the cycle low (https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-s-30-billion-overhang-where-the-cycle-low-likely-forms
) as also outlined in our December 19, 2025 report "Trading the Reset: Bitcoin’s Path Through the 2026 Cycle Low" https://update.10xresearch.com/p/trading-the-reset-bitcoin-s-path-through-the-2026-cycle-low"
I was mentally prepared for the correction despite prevailing optimism at the time, particularly as key industry players such as FTX and Binance appeared to have virtually unlimited capital to acquire distressed competitors and to backstop the market.
While extrapolating from only a handful of historical cycles is not statistically robust, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown that cycle analysis, despite its simplicity, can be an effective way to step back and understand how market psychology evolves through distinct phases.
Each cycle introduces new narratives and promoters, often successfully attracting billions and, in this cycle, tens of billions of dollars in capital for single investments.
Ironically, it is the subsequent reassessment of these allocations by investors, and the unwinding of the capital raised, that is now exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin.
This dynamic closely resembles the forced liquidations of the summer of 2022.
At current levels, the $3.5 billion in paper losses facing MicroStrategy mirrors the scale of the collapse of Three Arrows Capital.
Meanwhile, Bitmine’s staggering $8 billion paper loss draws a sobering (financial) parallel to the losses sustained by FTX users.
While the magnitude of these drawdowns echoes that of the 2022 bear market, history suggests that this cycle will eventually find its floor.
Below, we outline the expected timing of Bitcoin's next cycle low and the price levels likely to accompany it.
See when and where we expect the cycle low (https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bitcoin-s-30-billion-overhang-where-the-cycle-low-likely-forms
) as also outlined in our December 19, 2025 report "Trading the Reset: Bitcoin’s Path Through the 2026 Cycle Low" https://update.10xresearch.com/p/trading-the-reset-bitcoin-s-path-through-the-2026-cycle-low"
Is the AI / data-center premium for Galaxy Digital actually justified, or already fading? After earnings, Galaxy Digital fell -17%, followed by another -8% the next day.
Is this a buy-the-dip opportunity, or are the shares still overvalued versus peers?
1/ Yesterday, we flagged which crypto stocks investors are rewarding… and which they’re quietly walking away from.
Galaxy sits right in the middle.
2/ Galaxy’s problem isn’t vision, it’s predictability.
Quarterly earnings remain heavily driven by treasury exposure and market volatility, not recurring operating cash flows.
That’s a negative in an environment where investors demand clarity.
3/ The market initially loved the AI/data-center expansion narrative.
It helped justify a valuation premium versus other crypto financials.
But that premium assumes a clean, fast pivot — and execution risk here is high.
4/ History matters.
Mike Novogratz has successfully reinvented himself before:
Sell-side → Buy-side → Crypto.
Another hard pivot is possible, but it’s not guaranteed.
5/ The latest earnings were a wake-up call.
Galaxy reported roughly $400M in losses, reminding investors how exposed results still are to market swings.
AI optionality doesn’t erase earnings volatility overnight.
6/ The stock reaction says it all.
As investors began discounting the AI/data-center valuation, the premium compressed, fast.
The market is no longer paying upfront for potential pivots.
7/ Could Galaxy eventually pivot away from crypto entirely and lean into digital infrastructure?
It’s not impossible.
But until that transition delivers predictable earnings, the stock remains stuck between narratives.
8/ Bottom line:
Galaxy isn’t broken, but it’s not the cleanest AI or crypto equity either.
There are other crypto-adjacent stocks with clearer positioning, stronger operating leverage..
That’s where investors are increasingly looking as we explain in our report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/galaxy-digital-loses-hundreds-of-millions-is-the-17-sell-off-justified-or-a-buying-opportunity
Is this a buy-the-dip opportunity, or are the shares still overvalued versus peers?
1/ Yesterday, we flagged which crypto stocks investors are rewarding… and which they’re quietly walking away from.
Galaxy sits right in the middle.
2/ Galaxy’s problem isn’t vision, it’s predictability.
Quarterly earnings remain heavily driven by treasury exposure and market volatility, not recurring operating cash flows.
That’s a negative in an environment where investors demand clarity.
3/ The market initially loved the AI/data-center expansion narrative.
It helped justify a valuation premium versus other crypto financials.
But that premium assumes a clean, fast pivot — and execution risk here is high.
4/ History matters.
Mike Novogratz has successfully reinvented himself before:
Sell-side → Buy-side → Crypto.
Another hard pivot is possible, but it’s not guaranteed.
5/ The latest earnings were a wake-up call.
Galaxy reported roughly $400M in losses, reminding investors how exposed results still are to market swings.
AI optionality doesn’t erase earnings volatility overnight.
6/ The stock reaction says it all.
As investors began discounting the AI/data-center valuation, the premium compressed, fast.
The market is no longer paying upfront for potential pivots.
7/ Could Galaxy eventually pivot away from crypto entirely and lean into digital infrastructure?
It’s not impossible.
But until that transition delivers predictable earnings, the stock remains stuck between narratives.
8/ Bottom line:
Galaxy isn’t broken, but it’s not the cleanest AI or crypto equity either.
There are other crypto-adjacent stocks with clearer positioning, stronger operating leverage..
That’s where investors are increasingly looking as we explain in our report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/galaxy-digital-loses-hundreds-of-millions-is-the-17-sell-off-justified-or-a-buying-opportunity
Galaxy Digital Loses Hundreds of Millions — Is the 17% Sell-Off Justified or a Buying Opportunity?
Galaxy Digital just released its Q4 2025 earnings, and the results highlight a broader, telling shift across the crypto equity landscape.
Despite its status as an industry bellwether, Galaxy has generated little sustained alpha.
While the market began pricing in a valuation premium around October 2025, the key question now is whether that premium persists, compresses, or expands.
The answer carries meaningful implications for the stock; investors signaled their skepticism by selling shares down 17%.
More broadly, Galaxy’s earnings call underscores a growing divergence between winners and losers within crypto equities.
This is no longer a single-beta trade.
We have a clear view of which side of that divide Galaxy sits, and whether the recent sell-off marks the start of a deeper downtrend or a mispricing that the market may ultimately correct.
Subscribe and read our full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/galaxy-digital-loses-hundreds-of-millions-is-the-17-sell-off-justified-or-a-buying-opportunity
Galaxy Digital just released its Q4 2025 earnings, and the results highlight a broader, telling shift across the crypto equity landscape.
Despite its status as an industry bellwether, Galaxy has generated little sustained alpha.
While the market began pricing in a valuation premium around October 2025, the key question now is whether that premium persists, compresses, or expands.
The answer carries meaningful implications for the stock; investors signaled their skepticism by selling shares down 17%.
More broadly, Galaxy’s earnings call underscores a growing divergence between winners and losers within crypto equities.
This is no longer a single-beta trade.
We have a clear view of which side of that divide Galaxy sits, and whether the recent sell-off marks the start of a deeper downtrend or a mispricing that the market may ultimately correct.
Subscribe and read our full report: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/galaxy-digital-loses-hundreds-of-millions-is-the-17-sell-off-justified-or-a-buying-opportunity
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