CoinPhoton

Bitcoin may face a key test this year as its long-followed Power Law price model approaches a potential “floor catch-up” point.
The Power Law model is a time-based regression that maps Bitcoin’s long-term price trend as a power curve, with rising upper and lower bands. The lower band (the “floor”) increases every day regardless of market price. If Bitcoin trades sideways or declines for several more months, this floor could catch up to price by late Q4 2026, creating the first historical break below the model’s support band.
As of mid-February 2026, price sits well above the projected floor but far below the central trendline. However, the cushion shrinks over time because the floor rises steadily. By October–December, only a modest pullback of roughly 4–6% from current levels could trigger a headline “model break.”
A break would not invalidate Bitcoin itself, but it would challenge this specific Power Law parameterization and suggest slower long-term growth than the curve implies. Critics argue these log-log power regressions are statistically fragile and sensitive to sample windows, while newer research still finds power-law behavior but with different slope estimates.
Key factors that could push price toward the floor include weaker ETF flows and macro risk-off shocks. The next several months are effectively a real-time test of whether the Power Law model has predictive strength or is mainly a curve-fit of historical data.

CME Group is moving its crypto derivatives market into a fully always-on model by launching 24/7 trading for cryptocurrency futures and options on the CME Globex starting May 29, pending regulatory approval. This marks a structural shift from its traditional schedule, where Bitcoin futures paused over the weekend.
Because Bitcoin trades continuously while CME futures previously closed from Friday to Sunday, price moves during the weekend created chart gaps known as “CME gaps.” These gaps became a popular trading narrative, with many traders expecting them to eventually be filled. With round-the-clock trading, the classic weekend gap setup largely disappears.
However, gaps will not vanish entirely. CME will still maintain a short weekly maintenance window of about two hours, which could still produce smaller, more technical price discontinuities if volatility and low liquidity coincide.
CME says the change is driven by strong institutional demand, citing multi-trillion-dollar notional crypto derivatives volume and rising average daily contracts and open interest. Continuous trading should allow institutions to hedge and adjust risk in real time rather than waiting for market reopenings, tightening the link between crypto and broader macro markets.
Mainstream financial coverage, including from Bloomberg, views the move as a meaningful market structure upgrade. Overall, the shift signals that crypto derivatives are becoming a normalized part of global financial infrastructure, while the famous CME gap narrative evolves rather than fully disappears.

South Korean lawmakers intensify scrutiny after Bithumb’s $43B Bitcoin credit error
South Korean lawmakers are increasing oversight of financial regulators after a system error at crypto exchange Bithumb mistakenly credited users with about $43 billion worth of Bitcoin earlier this month.
The glitch credited 695 users with up to 2,000 BTC each instead of a 2,000 won promotional reward. Although the exchange fixed the issue within minutes and recovered roughly 99.7% of the funds, about 0.3% remained missing and had to be covered with company assets. The incident triggered a flash crash in Bitcoin’s price on the platform and caused losses exceeding $100 million.
Lawmakers criticized both the Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service for failing to detect structural system risks despite multiple prior inspections. A formal investigation is ongoing, with regulators warning that the event exposed major supervisory and regulatory blind spots in the crypto market.

Malaysian authorities have detained 12 police officers accused of extorting roughly 200,000 ringgit (about $51,000) in crypto assets from a group of Chinese nationals during a midnight raid on a residence near Kuala Lumpur. The case began after one of eight alleged victims filed a complaint on Feb. 6, claiming officers stormed a bungalow, confiscated phones and laptops, and coerced a victim into transferring digital assets to a specified crypto wallet.
Selangor police chief Shazeli Kahar said immediate action was taken following the report, and the suspects were arrested to assist with an internal investigation. Authorities are treating the incident as a gang robbery case involving a foreign national’s crypto holdings and emphasized that no officers involved in criminal conduct will be shielded from prosecution.
The arrests come amid heightened anti-corruption scrutiny across Malaysia’s public sector. King Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar recently warned that corrupt actors within government agencies — including law enforcement — are under close watch, stating that independent intelligence channels are monitoring misconduct. Since taking office, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has led a broader anti-corruption push, with multiple senior officials and public figures charged in recent months as part of efforts to curb abuse of power.

Ethereum Foundation has introduced its 2026 roadmap focused on three pillars: scaling the network, improving user experience, and strengthening Layer 1 security. The plan aims to raise gas limits beyond 100 million, improve block building neutrality, advance zk-based verification, and make smart wallets more native and easier to use.
These upgrades are designed to lower structural risk, reduce user friction, and keep Ethereum competitive as a long-term settlement layer for tokenized and on-chain assets. If successful, they could lower ETH’s perceived risk premium among institutional investors.
However, despite strong technical progress, current on-chain metrics remain weak — especially fee revenue and burn. Low transaction fees and reduced ETH burn mean network usage is not translating into strong value capture. Much activity has shifted to layer-2 networks, raising questions about how much value flows back to ETH.
Bottom line: the roadmap improves Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals, but ETH price recovery likely depends on one key shift — a rebound in fees/burn or a stronger economic link between layer-2 growth and mainnet value capture.

Vitalik Buterin said he is working to build a more “cypherpunk, principled, and non-ugly” version of Ethereum as an integrated extension to the current system, rather than replacing it entirely. His goal is to strengthen Ethereum’s core properties—such as censorship resistance, zero-knowledge (ZK) friendliness, and robust consensus—while keeping the network interoperable and cohesive.
A key step is the planned inclusion of FOCIL (EIP-7805) in the 2026 Hegota hard fork. FOCIL would enforce transaction inclusion at the protocol level, helping guarantee censorship resistance by requiring validators to include valid public-mempool transactions or risk being forked off the chain. Though controversial due to legal and complexity concerns, it aligns with Buterin’s vision of a “harder” Ethereum.
FOCIL is expected to work alongside EIP-8141 (account abstraction), enabling native smart wallets, multisig, quantum-resistant keys, and gas-sponsored privacy transactions without intermediaries. Together, these upgrades support the Ethereum Foundation’s goals of scaling, hardening, and simplifying the base layer.
Longer term, Buterin is also advocating for a “lean Ethereum,” including deeper architectural changes such as integrating ZK proofs directly into Layer 1 (Beam Chain concept) and potentially replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine with RISC-V for better language support and ZK efficiency.
Amid growing competition from other Layer 1 blockchains, Buterin has signaled a willingness to pursue bold structural upgrades—arguing that Ethereum has successfully made major in-flight changes before and can do so again.

Two spot Sui ETFs launched in the U.S. on Feb. 18, with Canary’s SUIS listing on Nasdaq and Grayscale’s GSUI on NYSE Arca. Despite offering staking-enabled exposure to the Sui layer-1 blockchain, the products drew extremely weak demand. Combined first-day trading volume was under $150,000 — far below other recent altcoin ETF debuts.
By comparison, Solana’s BSOL and XRP’s XRPC each recorded over $55 million in opening-day volume, highlighting a sharp liquidity gap between top-tier crypto assets and those further down the market-cap rankings. Historical launch data shows a clear pattern: as market cap rank declines, debut-day trading volume drops dramatically, often by multiples.
The article argues that ETF structure and regulatory approval alone do not guarantee liquidity. Distribution, institutional comfort, hedging efficiency, advisor adoption, and retail visibility are the true drivers of trading activity. While top assets like Solana and XRP benefit from deep markets and strong brand recognition, lower-ranked tokens such as Sui struggle to generate sustained flow.
The broader implication is that only a small number of altcoin ETFs are likely to achieve meaningful liquidity and institutional adoption. The rest may remain thinly traded, face widening spreads, and potentially risk closure if trading activity fails to build over time. Ultimately, distribution — not infrastructure — determines success in the crypto ETF market.

Christine Lagarde — President of the European Central Bank — is facing a sensitive moment as leadership questions and the digital euro roadmap enter critical phases at the same time.

According to Financial Times, Lagarde is reportedly expected to step down before her term ends in October 2027, with the timing linked to France’s presidential election in April 2027. However, the European Central Bank has said she has made no decision and remains committed to completing her mandate.

This leadership storyline is unfolding alongside the digital euro project moving into its next stage. The European Central Bank said it plans to publish a call for expressions of interest for payment service providers in March 2026, expected to run for about six weeks. A pilot phase could begin in the second half of 2027 and last 12 months, involving real-world transactions in a controlled environment.

The institution estimates total development costs for the digital euro at about €1.3 billion, with annual operating costs around €320 million starting in 2029. Meanwhile, euro banknotes in circulation stand at roughly €1.6 trillion as of January 2026, and euro area M2 money supply is about €16.07 trillion as of December 2025.

The European Central Bank says potential readiness for issuance in 2029 depends on related legislation being adopted in 2026. If the legislative process is delayed, the launch timeline could shift toward 2030.

With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% and inflation easing to 1.7% in January 2026, any leadership transition is more likely to affect messaging and communication tone than trigger abrupt policy shifts.

The overlap between the leadership clock and the project clock marks a key hinge moment, as Europe shapes the future of digital payments and the role of digital assets in its financial system.

BNP Paribas Asset Management has launched a new blockchain pilot, issuing a tokenized share class of a French-domiciled money market fund on Ethereum.
The tokenized shares were issued via the AssetFoundry platform of BNP Paribas using a permissioned access model on Ethereum, restricting holdings and transfers to eligible and authorized participants in line with regulatory requirements.
The initiative was conducted as a limited intra-group experiment designed to test end-to-end processes — from issuance and transfer agency to tokenization and connectivity with a public blockchain — within a controlled and regulated framework. BNP Paribas Asset Management acted as the fund issuer, while BNP Paribas Securities Services served as transfer agent and dealer.
The move follows earlier experiments, including a prior tokenized money market fund issuance in collaboration with Allfunds Blockchain. The bank has also reportedly participated in initiatives exploring the integration of the global financial messaging network SWIFT with blockchain infrastructure, as well as joint projects among major banks to assess stablecoin issuance.

World Liberty Financial tokenizes Maldives luxury resort with exit mechanism
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has partnered with Saudi real estate developer DarGlobal to tokenize a $300 million ultra-luxury resort project in the Maldives, slated to open in 2030.
The development will include 100 beach and overwater villas. Rather than tokenizing a completed property, WLFI is issuing tokens at the development stage, aiming to unlock high-margin “development returns” typically captured by large banks in commercial real estate projects.
According to the company, the tokens are expected to provide fixed yield and loan-related revenue streams tied to the project. In the future, holders may also receive income distributions or profits from a potential sale of the property. The offering includes a dedicated exit mechanism for accredited investors, allowing them to withdraw if they are dissatisfied with the project’s trajectory.
DarGlobal said it will retain at least a 30% equity stake—higher than the typical 10% seen in similar developments—to demonstrate long-term alignment of interests.
The tokens will be issued in partnership with Securitize, a digital asset securities platform. CEO Carlos Domingo has previously noted that real estate remains one of the most challenging asset classes to tokenize effectively, particularly due to persistent liquidity constraints, as tokenization alone does not automatically make illiquid assets liquid.
WLFI co-founder Eric Trump said the project is designed to broaden investment options for crypto investors seeking longer-term exposure, though participation is currently limited to accredited investors. Token holders may eventually convert their exposure into equity in the Maldives resort and will also receive certain lifestyle-related benefits.

Netherlands orders Polymarket to halt operations over “illegal gambling”
Netherlands Gambling Authority (Ksa) has ordered Polymarket to immediately cease operations in the Netherlands, threatening fines of €420,000 ($462,000) per week, up to a maximum of €840,000, if the platform fails to comply.
The regulator said prediction markets constitute “illegal gambling” under Dutch law when offered without a license. The penalty order was imposed on Adventure One QSS Inc., Polymarket’s operator, for providing services to Dutch users without authorization.
The move comes as prediction markets experience rapid global growth, particularly around major political events such as the 2024 U.S. presidential election. However, regulators argue that allowing users to stake money on uncertain real-world outcomes amounts to betting, regardless of whether platforms frame their products as financial instruments.
Polymarket and rival Kalshi have consistently maintained that they offer “event contracts,” not wagers. Despite that stance, both companies face mounting legal and regulatory challenges across multiple jurisdictions, including the United States and several European countries.
Observers say the Dutch action reflects the country’s traditionally strict regulatory posture, prioritizing consumer protection and legal compliance over a more permissive, innovation-first approach.

SEC eases stablecoin guidance for broker-dealers
SEC has issued new guidance allowing broker-dealers to apply a 2% haircut to proprietary positions in certain stablecoins, lowering the capital treatment compared to prior practices.
According to the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets, staff would not object if a broker-dealer applies a 2% haircut under the customer protection rule, which requires firms to safeguard client assets and maintain a reserve cushion. A haircut represents the percentage reduction in an asset’s value when used as collateral to reflect risk. Previously, some brokers applied haircuts as high as 100% to stablecoins.
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce said stablecoins are essential for transacting on blockchain infrastructure and could enable broker-dealers to expand activities related to tokenized securities and other crypto assets.
Market observers say the 2% haircut places payment stablecoins closer to money market fund treatment, reducing friction for integration into traditional finance while improving liquidity and settlement efficiency.

BGD Labs to End Support for Aave DAO in April
BGD Labs announced it will conclude its four-year role supporting the Aave DAO and will not seek renewal after April 1, citing rising centralization concerns within the ecosystem.
The firm pointed to what it described as an increasingly dominant role played by Aave Labs, particularly in leading the development of Aave v4. BGD argued that strategic direction has shifted in a way that limits meaningful external contribution, while attention toward Aave v3 has declined despite its continued market relevance and security track record.
Although stepping down, BGD Labs said it will ensure a structured transition, completing active initiatives and offering an optional two-month $200,000 security retainer to support v3 and governance systems.
Following the announcement, AAVE fell more than 5%, with price action remaining below its 20-day EMA, signaling continued short-term downside pressure.

Kalshi won a preliminary injunction in Tennessee after a federal judge blocked state officials from enforcing sports betting laws against its sports event contracts. Judge Aleta A. Trauger ruled the company is likely to succeed in arguing that these contracts qualify as swaps under federal commodities law, which could override state gambling regulations.
The court said event “outcomes” can count as valid occurrences and accepted that sports results can have downstream economic effects, meeting federal swap requirements. Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, argued it cannot comply with both state licensing rules and federal derivatives regulations at the same time.
The decision adds to mixed rulings across states, increasing the chance the broader dispute over prediction market sports contracts could ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich publicly rejected online accusations that the company lacks transparency and mismanages its bitcoin strategy. He said claims about hidden purchases and delayed disclosures are incorrect, noting that all company bitcoin addresses are visible through a live shareholder dashboard. Some loan details were kept private only due to counterparty confidentiality requests.
Gerovich defended the firm’s long-term bitcoin accumulation approach, acknowledging that purchases near the September 2025 price peak hurt short-term results but stressing the strategy is based on systematic accumulation, not market timing. Despite large unrealized losses that led to a reported net loss, he highlighted strong operating profit growth and bitcoin-related income strategies. He also argued the company’s stock has not underperformed bitcoin during the downturn and reaffirmed the target of accumulating 210,000 BTC by 2027.

Peter Williams pleads guilty to selling cyber exploits, paid in crypto
Peter Williams pleaded guilty to two counts of trade secret theft in Washington after selling sensitive cyber-exploit tools to a Russia-linked broker, with payments made in crypto. Prosecutors say he received about $1.26 million over three years and later spent the funds on luxury goods and real estate.
According to the U.S. Department of Justice, Williams — an Australian national and U.S. resident — sold eight protected exploit components, including zero-day capabilities developed for the U.S. intelligence community and shared with Five Eyes partners. Contracts tied to the deals promised up to $4 million more.
Prosecutors said related companies suffered losses exceeding $35 million and that Williams continued the activity until July 2025 despite knowing he was under investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. He allegedly routed crypto through anonymized transactions before cashing out, spending over $715,000 on travel, luxury cars, jewelry, and a $1.5 million property down payment.
The government is seeking a nine-year prison sentence, at least $35 million in restitution, a $250,000 fine, and three years of supervised release.

“Bitcoin to zero” searches hit all-time high on Google Trends
Data from Google Trends shows global interest in the phrase “Bitcoin to zero” reached a record high in the week ending Feb. 7. Search intensity surpassed previous peak fear periods, including the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014, regulatory ban concerns in 2018, the COVID-driven market crash in 2020, and the 2022 bear market bottom.
Amid the spike, skeptical voices have resurfaced, with increased criticism and trolling around BTC during the latest price weakness. However, past cycles suggest extreme pessimism has repeatedly appeared near major downturns rather than marking the end of the asset, as seen in similar sentiment waves in 2018 and 2022.

Google rolls out Lyria 3 music model inside Gemini
Google has begun rolling out its Lyria 3 AI music model in the Gemini app (beta), allowing users aged 18+ to generate full 30-second songs from text prompts or uploaded images, including vocals, instrumentals, and AI cover art.
Built by Google DeepMind, Lyria 3 produces coherent, prompt-aligned tracks within seconds, but currently struggles with niche genres and caps output at 30 seconds. Google positions the tool for quick, shareable music snippets rather than fully polished commercial songs.
Competitors such as Suno and Udio still lead in long-form generation, advanced controls, and structured multi-minute compositions.
All generated tracks include Google’s SynthID audio watermark and built-in verification tools. The model is available on desktop now, with mobile rollout following, and is also expanding Dream Track creation on YouTube Shorts globally.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have shifted from strong post-launch inflows to sustained outflows following Bitcoin’s October all-time high. Funds have exited on the majority of recent trading days, totaling roughly $8.5–$8.7 billion in net outflows. This has led to rising concern that, if the pace continues, ETF-held Bitcoin could shrink dramatically over the next several years. Some projections show that under a constant outflow run-rate, total assets could be heavily reduced by the next Bitcoin halving in 2028, though that scenario assumes no recovery in demand or price.
Despite the recent bleeding, the longer-term picture is less extreme. Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs are still above $50 billion, meaning most of the capital that entered since launch remains in place. Analysts argue this shows the product category is still structurally successful, even if short-term sentiment has turned negative. Large flagship funds such as iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund continue to hold the majority of assets, highlighting how liquidity and investor trust have concentrated in a few dominant vehicles.
Institutional behavior also looks weaker across related markets, not just ETFs. Bitcoin futures exposure and open interest have dropped notably from late-2024 highs, signaling that larger, regulated trading venues are carrying less risk. At the same time, US trading venues have often priced Bitcoin at a discount to offshore markets, reinforcing evidence of steady US-led selling pressure. Together, ETF outflows, lower derivatives exposure, and venue price spreads suggest institutions have become more defensive rather than fully exiting.
Macro conditions are an important backdrop. Uncertainty around interest-rate cuts, shifting fund flows between equities and bonds, and tighter liquidity have made investors more selective with risk assets. In this environment, Bitcoin has traded more like a liquidity-sensitive asset than a safe haven, amplifying the effect of ETF outflows on sentiment.

XRP is seeing stronger institutional interest and improving market sentiment even while the broader crypto market remains risk-off. Data from CoinShares shows XRP has attracted significant net inflows this year, while major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have recorded large outflows, signaling a rotation of capital rather than broad-based risk appetite.

Sentiment indicators from Santiment show bullish commentary around XRP at a multi-week high. However, some institutions remain cautious, with Standard Chartered recently lowering its long-term XRP price target after the latest market selloff.

Key catalysts include expanded collateral use and institutional infrastructure. Coinbase now allows XRP as collateral for USDC loans, which can create stickier demand because holders can borrow without selling. On the infrastructure side, Ripple is building a broader institutional stack across payments, custody, brokerage, and stablecoins, while XRPL is adding permissioned trading features aimed at regulated participants.

Adoption remains the deciding factor. XRP’s outlook depends on sustained use as lending collateral, durable liquidity in permissioned onchain markets, and continued relative capital inflows versus major tokens. If these trends scale, XRP could strengthen its institutional role; if not, performance may remain headline-driven and volatile.