Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
Chief Investment Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research.
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New home sales for December recorded a month-over-month decline of 1.7%. This figure came in below the market estimate, which had projected a rate of 0%. By comparison, the data point for October was reported at -0.1%.
SCOTUS has ruled that the IEEPA provides no authorization for the President to impose tariffs.
We are pleased to announce the release of the newest #OnInvesting podcast episode. In this session, @KathyJones and I break down the latest Fed minutes and examine the AI cascade phase. Furthermore, our expert colleague @KevRGordon joins the conversation to review the latest inflation data and labor market statistics.
During 4Q2025, personal consumption realized a gain of 2.4% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis. This result matches the projected 2.4% estimate precisely, though it comes in lower than the prior 3.5% figure.
During 4Q25, real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by 2.4% (q/q ann.). Even though this marks a decline from the prior quarter, the data indicates a status that is still relatively healthy.
Real GDP for 4Q2025 showed weak performance, registering at +1.4% (q/q ann.). This outcome is below the +2.8% estimate and trails the +4.4% reported prior.
The latest data for the December PCE Price Index reveals a year-over-year increase of 3%. This actual figure exceeds the market estimate of 2.9% as well as the prior reading of 2.8%. Regarding the core metric, the result came in at 2.9%, which sits just above the 2.8% anticipated by forecasts and the 2.8% recorded in the previous period.
December personal income +0.3% m/m vs. +0.4% prior (rev up from +0.3%) … personal spending +0.4% vs. +0.4% prior (rev down from +0.5%)
The proportion of equities within every sector currently hitting fresh price peaks across multiple timeframes.
Here is the performance breakdown across sectors and indexes for yesterday, MTD, and YTD.
The MA breadth charts have been refreshed to cover market activity through the close of yesterday.
We have refreshed the performance data for your review. The index tables and the Mag7 chart/table now incorporate figures through yesterday's close.
In January, the year-over-year pace for pending home sales slipped to -1.2%, indicating that activity continues to be weak.
During the last week of January, CARTS retail sales tracked by @ChicagoFed dropped by 0.5%. This represents the most significant decrease recorded since last September.
Consumer goods imports declined through December, lowering the year-over-year change to -21.5%.
In February, the @philadelphiafed Manufacturing Index stood at 50.06 when adjusted for ISM methodology. Even though the metric slipped, it remains essentially unchanged.
According to Johnson Redbook, the data does not show any major red flags for retail consumption. In the most recent week, spending growth hit +6.5% on a year-over-year basis.
The AAII bull-bear spread has experienced a steep decline, placing it back in the negative zone. @AAIISentiment
Pending home sales have officially dropped to an all-time low. This marks another monthly decline, with January pending home sales coming in at -0.84% m/m compared to -7.38% in the prior month.
For the 4Q25 period, the @AtlantaFed GDPNow model has returned to its original starting point. The figure stands at +3% (q/q ann.).
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