Pirate_of_Crypto

Bạc đang giao dịch ở hai mức giá hoàn toàn khác nhau cùng một lúc.

Tại Mỹ (COMEX), bạc khoảng $92. Ở Thượng Hải, bạc vật chất khoảng $130. Đó là mức phí bảo hiểm hơn 40% ở Thượng Hải.

Cùng một kim loại. Hai mức giá. Và khoảng cách này chính xác là điều mà việc thao túng trông như thế nào.

Đây là lý do:

1. COMEX CHỦ YẾU LÀ THỊ TRƯỜNG GIẤY

Tại Mỹ, giao dịch bạc chủ yếu được chi phối bởi các hợp đồng giấy. Hầu hết khối lượng không phải là bạc thật đang lưu thông. Đó là các hợp đồng được mua và bán. Và tỷ lệ giấy trên thực tế ước tính khoảng 350:1. Điều đó có nghĩa là cho mỗi 1 ounce thật, có thể có hàng trăm yêu cầu bằng giấy.

US PPI jumped to 3.0% YoY in December 2025, beating expectations and flashing a hotter-than-forecast inflation signal. Core came in at 3.3% (highest since July), with a 0.5% MoM spike in final demand prices doing the damage.

This print crushes the “rapid disinflation” narrative and makes the Fed’s road to the 2% target a lot murkier -- which likely means 2026 rate cuts get pushed back and policy stays tighter for longer.

Markets are on edge. Equities face renewed volatility, with growth/tech names and duration-sensitive bonds most at risk as yields push higher. The S&P could easily retest recent lows if inflation anxiety dominates the tape.

Crypto feels the risk-off ripple too -- $BTC and alts may see short-term pressure reminiscent of past hawkish episodes. That said, persistent spot ETF inflows and lingering halving tailwinds could limit the damage and turn any dip into a buy-the-news setup.

Watch Fed speakers closely for tone shifts. Data like this often breeds chop -- and chop creates opportunities 🚀

🚨 NEXT FED CHAIR VS BITCOIN

Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Fed Chair.

Markets don’t like it.
I don’t like it either.

But this isn’t about personalities. It’s about POWER, CREDIBILITY, AND CONTROL.

This was not an accident. Warsh is not a compromise pick. He’s a signal.

And the signal is simple: CREDIBILITY.

Since 2008, the Fed stopped behaving like a central bank. It became the market’s backstop, the volatility suppressor, the INSURER OF LAST RESORT. Every time something broke, liquidity showed up. QE followed. Emergency facilities expanded. ASSET PRICES WERE PROTECTED.

Markets learned fast. RISK STOPPED BEING PRICED.

Warsh hates this model.

His view is blunt: IF A MARKET CANNOT CORRECT, IT IS NOT A MARKET. He believes the Fed went rogue, crossed into fiscal territory, and trained investors to expect rescue. In effect, the Fed turned itself into a UNIVERSAL INSURER.

This appointment is not about the next rate cut. It’s about ENDING THE ASSUMPTION OF AUTOMATIC BAILOUTS. The Fed is trying to get back into its lane. INFLATION FIRST. BANKING STABILITY. NO GUARANTEED MARKET SUPPORT.

That kind of reset is painful.

Now comes the political reality.

Trump doesn’t think like a central banker. He thinks in terms of POWER. Reindustrialization. Technological dominance. Fiscal expansion. All of that requires CHEAP FINANCING. Low rates. A cooperative Fed.

Warsh may not give him that.

The U.S. is BURIED IN DEBT. Deficits are structural. INTEREST COSTS ARE EXPLODING. The real fear is FISCAL DOMINANCE. Will the Fed be forced to keep rates low just so the Treasury survives?

Warsh despises that idea. He is openly against DEBT MONETIZATION, FINANCIAL REPRESSION, and turning the Fed into a funding arm of the government. THIS IS WHERE THE REAL TENSION SITS.

What happens next won’t be open war. Markets love drama. Reality prefers quiet deals. The most likely outcome is INFORMAL COORDINATION.

But there is a RED LINE.

If inflation reaccelerates, Warsh will have to choose between PROTECTING FED CREDIBILITY and BENDING TO POLITICAL PRESSURE. That decision will define this cycle.

For crypto, the short-term picture is clear and uncomfortable.

Warsh means DISCIPLINE. Discipline means TIGHT LIQUIDITY. Tight liquidity is bad for RISK ASSETS, especially crypto. Expect HIGHER RATES FOR LONGER, delayed easing, and persistent dollar pressure. Bitcoin may hold up better than most, but ETH AND ALTS SUFFER. LEVERAGE GETS WIPED. This is NOT A HYPE PHASE.

But here’s what most people miss.

Crypto doesn’t rally on comfort. IT RALLIES WHEN PRESSURE BREAKS SOMETHING.

A Warsh Fed increases PRESSURE. Less early intervention. More stress allowed to build. HARDER DISLOCATIONS when they hit. Historically, BITCOIN BOTTOMS BEFORE THE FED PIVOTS, not after. Warsh delays rescue, which makes the eventual pivot MORE VIOLENT.

Ironically, that strengthens Bitcoin’s case. If the Fed tries to stay disciplined and is eventually forced to reverse, the CREDIBILITY LOSS IS LARGER. That’s where Bitcoin wins. Not as a risk asset, but as an ESCAPE VALVE.

Bitcoin is relatively resilient. Ethereum is LIQUIDITY-DEPENDENT and lags early. Most ALTCOINS DON’T SURVIVE TIGHT REGIMES. STABLECOINS QUIETLY BENEFIT.

Markets are nervous because this is a TRANSITION. A Warsh Fed means FEWER SAFETY NETS, MORE VOLATILITY, and a HIGHER PROBABILITY SOMETHING BREAKS BEFORE RESCUE.

That’s uncomfortable.

But that’s how cycles reset.

Crypto doesn’t die in these phases.

IT GETS PURIFIED.

I’ll track this in real time. I’ve called major tops and bottoms before, and I’ll call the next ones publicly.

The next phase won’t be easy.

But it will be REVEALING.

It’s official: Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the next Fed chair.

The markets don't like it.

I don't really like it either.

But what is happening behind the scenes is much deeper than a simple appointment.

Here’s the truth:

Make no mistake, Bessent is behind this.

Why Warsh?

CREDIBILITY.

The goal is to restore the Fed's legitimacy, which has been shattered over the last 15 years.

Since 2008, the Fed hasn't just been a central bank.

It became the market's guardian angel.

Injecting liquidity the moment things got scary.

Protecting asset prices.

Warsh is the biggest critic of this model.

His view is simple:

If a market cannot correct, it’s not a market.

Warsh believes the Fed has gone rogue.

It expanded beyond its mandate to become a "universal insurer."

Appointing him sends a massive signal:
The Fed is returning to its core lane.

– Inflation control
– Banking stability
– NO more automatic market bailouts

This is where it gets complicated.

Trump thinks in terms of POWER.

He wants technological domination and reindustrialization.

He needs low rates to finance it.

Warsh might not give him that.

The US has massive debt and deficits.

The real fear is "Fiscal Dominance."

Will the Fed be forced to keep rates low just so the Treasury can survive?

Warsh hates this idea. He hates debt monetization.

THE VERDICT?

The markets are panicking because of the uncertainty.

But the likely outcome isn't war between the Fed and Trump.

It’s informal coordination.

But there is a red line:

If inflation rips higher... Warsh will have to choose between institutional credibility and political loyalty.

The next 4 years are going to be full of surprises.