News Hunter BNB

Bitcoin price forecasts still favor lower macro lows as traders brace for US inflation data and renewed Japan-driven currency volatility.
Bitcoin 
$BTC $68,879 starts the second week of February still on the defensive after last week’s sharp drawdown, with traders increasingly eyeing a deeper retracement toward $60,000 — and even $50,000 — before a durable macro bottom forms.

Market forecasts agree that Bitcoin price action has not yet put in a reliable long-term bottom.CPI week comes as markets lose faith in Fed rate cuts in March.US dollar strength begins to fade as analysts eye a potential rerun of 2021 for Bitcoin-dollar correlation.Japan’s election turns heads, with analysis seeing a weaker yen and crypto headwinds to come.Bitcoin miners send large amounts to exchanges as the dust settles on the snap downside.

BTC price expected to attempt $60,000 retest
Bitcoin continues to trade above $70,000 as the week gets underway, but traders are anything but bullish on the short-term BTC price outlook.
Data from TradingView shows a lack of volatility around the weekly close, with BTC/USD staying around 20% higher versus its 15-month lows from last week.

In an X thread covering lower time frames, trader CrypNuevo warned that the current relief may end up as a manipulative move to liquidate late short positions.
“The intention to push price up first would be to hit the short liquidations that exist between $72k-$77k mainly. But this move is just a guess,” he wrote. 
“What we're really anticipating here is the long wick getting filled at least 50% of it in the next weekly candles.”

CrypNuevo implied that the lows could see at least a partial retest in the short term.
“It could be an immediate wick-fill. But in the case of having a move up first, then it could probably take around 5-8 weekly candles to get filled,” he forecast. 
At the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on a broad consensus that price would make new macro lows in the future — and that these could take BTC/USD to $50,000 or lower.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile considered less exciting BTC price action to come next.
“After such a volatile few weeks, price will attempt to start ranging at some point. With this recent spike in volatility and big retrace yesterday, there's a good chance we are hitting that point about now,” he told X followers Sunday. 
“Would expect volatility to slowly come off a bit again, a range to be formed and from there on out we can reassess and look for opportunities.”
CPI due as Fed policy nerves emerge
The macro focus is back on US inflation data this week as wild gyrations in precious metals settle.
The January print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Friday, forms the highlight and will follow various US employment data releases.
“Earnings season is also in full swing and macroeconomic uncertainty is elevated,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter added on the week’s outlook.
Since announcing the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump has failed to calm market nerves about future financial policy. His pick, Kevin Warsh, is thought to be notionally opposed to easing financial conditions — something that has already weighed on risk-asset performance.
Markets thus have little faith in interest rates going lower at the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March — even if Warsh is only due to take over in May.
Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently gives 82% odds of rates staying at current levels.

Commenting, analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company pointed to “stubborn” US inflation statistics as a reason for a more hawkish Fed — and associated market nerves.
“The combination of stronger economic growth and stubbornly high core inflation might starting casting a doubt on the interest rate outlook across the yield curve,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
Mosaic said that difficult conditions for the Fed were a “major catalyst behind the selloff in growth and AI stocks this year.”
“Rising rates makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in today’s terms, while higher rates presents competition for investor capital as well,” it added.
As the week began, meanwhile, gold returned to the $5,000 mark, while US stocks futures joined Bitcoin in a relief bounce off Friday’s lows. 

US dollar at a ten-year crossroads
For both Bitcoin and the broader risk-asset market, US dollar strength is becoming an increasingly important potential volatility catalyst.
The US dollar index (DXY), which enjoyed a relief rally following a trip to multiyear lows near 95.5 in late January, is failing to reclaim levels above 98.

A strong dollar tends to result in pressure for Bitcoin, and while the correlation has undergone many changes in recent years, the long-term trend may provide bulls with a more reliable tailwind.
“Still holding that support. But really critical level for the long-term trend,” analyst Aksel Kibar wrote in recent dollar commentary. 
“$DXY can offer a great trade setup soon. Long or short. irrespective of direction.”

Kibar eyed DXY possibly now breaking out of a ten-year trading channel to the downside, but said that more data would be necessary before this was confirmed.
An alternative perspective comes from Henrik Zeberg, chief macro economist at crypto market insight company Swissblock.
In an X post last week, Zeberg likened the current relationship between BTC and DXY to early 2021 — around ten months before BTC/USD saw the blow-off top in its last bull market.
Far from breaking down, DXY could in fact be at the start of its next bull run.
“Strong DXY is BEARISH for BTC - just not in the initial phase of the Bull. Likely because ROTATION into US Assets,” he wrote. 
“In 2021 - we had 12 weeks of BTC rally into the new DXY Bull. The rally gained 130% into the TOP for BTC. I see same development again! +100% gain in BTC - into its FINAL TOP.”

An accompanying chart suggested a target for that “final top” at $146,000.

Yen weakness stays on the radar
For the short term, however, Bitcoin faces another macro hurdle: a new fiscal policy era in Japan.
After the reelection of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japanese stocks surged to record highs — and analysis now sees negative impacts for US investment vehicles and crypto.
“The landslide victory of Sanae Takaichi marks Japan’s shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation,” analyst XWIN Research Japan wrote in a blog post published on onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. 
“The ‘Takaichi Trade’ has lifted the Nikkei to record highs while reshaping global capital flows.”

XWIN referenced findings warning of “slowing inflows” into US equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs), thanks to a weaker yen increasing the attractiveness of Japanese bonds.
“Against this backdrop, Bitcoin faces short-term downside risk,” it continued. 
“In risk-off phases, BTC tends to correlate with U.S. equities, allowing equity-led de-risking to spill into crypto markets. This pressure does not reflect deterioration in Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, but cross-asset risk management.”
As Cointelegraph reported, crypto markets remain highly sensitive to Japan-related news, with one theory even attributing the yen carry trade to last week’s BTC price crash.
Analyzing the yen situation ahead of the election, Robin Brooks, a senior research fellow at Brookings, described its weakness as a “political liability.”
“With the election out of the way, especially if Takaichi does well, the optics of Yen depreciation won’t matter nearly as much,” he predicted. 
“So the election is conceivably a catalyst for the next round of Yen weakening.”

Bitcoin miners see “exceptional” exchange inflows
Bitcoin miners are busy adjusting to current reality after Bitcoin’s 15-month lows — but research warns that a sell-off risk remains.
Related: Bitcoin difficulty plunges, Buterin sells off Ethereum: Hodler’s Digest, Feb. 1 – 7
Miner inflows to exchanges reached their highest levels since 2024 in recent days, with Feb. 5 alone seeing total deposits of 24,000 BTC.
Describing that tally as “exceptional,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain said that the market is undergoing a “redistribution phase.”
“Notably, this rise in miner activity comes within a market environment characterized by clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among segments of traders, which could add an extra layer of short-term selling pressure,” a blog post explained.
“However, these inflows do not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged downtrend, but rather may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle.”

The classic Hash Ribbons indicator, which measures periods of miner stress, likewise continues its reaction to Bitcoin’s flash crash.
The indicator’s two moving averages of hash rate show no sign of forming a classic bullish cross, firmly invalidating its latest “buy” signal from early January.

#BTC #TrendingTopic #bitcoin
$BTC

A trip to $60,000 and back before coffee.

Bitcoin $BTC  spent the end of last week doing what it does best: reminding traders that fire-breathing dragons aren’t in fairytales only.

After a sharp drop to $60,033 on Thursday torched thousands of long positions, the world’s largest cryptocurrency bounced hard. By Friday, it had clawed its way back above $70,000. Still, that dip was the orange coin’s lowest level since October 2024 and roughly 52% below last year’s record of $126,000.

By Monday morning, Bitcoin looked almost calm. It hovered around $70,700, barely changed on the day. The contrast with last week’s price action felt dramatic. Bitcoin rarely travels in straight lines, and this was another reminder.

🤔 Buy the Dip or Declare It Gone?

As always, opinions split fast. Some traders rushed to declare Bitcoin’s demise (for the 463th time – there’s a website for that). Others quietly loaded up, calling the move a classic paper-hands shakeout.

Markets, by nature, lean optimistic. The real question is whether optimism has enough fuel to pull Bitcoin out of its recent slump and into a renewed upside phase. The bounce has been impressive, an 18% upswing, but conviction remains fragile.

🌪️ Volatility Is a Feature, Not a Bug

Extreme volatility comes with the territory. Bitcoin’s slide from a $126,000 peak in October arrived despite a crypto-friendly White House and accelerating institutional adoption.

For some investors, that raised uncomfortable questions about Bitcoin’s role during periods of geopolitical stress.

Digital gold? Perhaps. Perfect hedge? That debate remains open.

🧊 The Market Finds Its Feet, Carefully

The broader crypto market has stabilized, though nerves remain close to the surface and Bitcoin still commands the lion’s share, according to the dominance chart. Traders describe the tone as cautious rather than confident. Or every analyst’s favorite expression: cautious optimism.

One level stands out on everyone’s chart. The $60,000 threshold has emerged as the primary near-term support. It marked the floor of last week’s selloff and remains the line bulls prefer not to revisit anytime soon.

On the upside, $75,000 carries symbolic weight. A sustained break above that zone would strengthen the case that the worst of the bear phase has passed and that buyers are regaining control.

📈 Institutions Quietly Step Back In

While price action grabbed headlines, flows told a quieter story. US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $221 million in inflows on February 6, suggesting that some investors viewed the selloff as an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Institutional participation tends to move slowly and deliberately. These flows do not guarantee higher prices, but they add some confidence during moments of stress. For a market built on confidence, that matters.

🧮 The Levels That Matter Now

If $BTC is serious about $70,000, attention turns to a handful of technical levels that traders are watching closely.

But before that, let’s talk about the 200-week moving average near $58,000, a level Bitcoin respected during the recent dip. Holding above it keeps the longer-term structure intact.

Next sits the $73,000 to $75,000 zone, an area packed with prior support and resistance. Clearing it convincingly would signal momentum shifting back toward the bulls.

Beyond that, the path opens toward $81,000, a level that could act as the next magnet if sentiment continues to improve.

Again, that is if the OG coin manages to reel itself out of the sub-$70,000 area. The bounce from $60,000 reminded traders that sharp selloffs often attract bargain hunters and dip scoopers.

Off to you: So where do you stand right now? Are you holding your Bitcoin, exploring alternatives, or watching from the sidelines? Share how you are navigating this market in the comments.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

Here are the indicators and levels I use for macro accumulation, and how I combine them to decide when risk/reward starts to favor buying not trading, not guessing bottoms, but long-term positioning.

1️⃣ $2150 — 0.5 Fibonacci Level

The $2150 zone aligns with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the larger move.

Why this matters:

* The 0.5 fib often acts as a psychological midpoint
* In previous cycles, this level frequently acted as:

- a reaction zone
- a pause before continuation
- or the first area where long-term buyers step in

I don’t treat this as a guaranteed bottom but it’s a first macro accumulation interest zone, especially if other conditions align.

2️⃣ $1400 — 2018 Top + April 2025 Rejection

The $1400 zone is structurally much stronger.

It represents:

* the 2018 cycle top (former resistance → potential support)
* a clear rejection area in April 2025, confirming it as a key market memory level

Markets tend to respect old highs and lows because:

* long-term participants anchor to them
* they often become zones of high liquidity
* they attract both defensive buyers and late sellers

3️⃣ RSI Below 30 — Macro Oversold

Historically, RSI below 30 on higher timeframes has marked:

* periods of extreme pessimism
* forced selling
* long-term opportunity, not comfort

Important:

* RSI < 30 does not mean price must reverse immediately
* it signals risk asymmetry starting to favor buyers

4️⃣ Below the Weekly 200 Moving Average

The Weekly 200 MA is one of the most important cycle filters.

In past bear markets:

* price often trades below the Weekly 200 MA
* true macro bottoms usually form after this condition is met

Being below it doesn’t mean cheap”by default but it confirms bear-market territory, which is where long-term accumulation historically makes sense.

5️⃣ Below the Monthly 100 Moving Average

The Monthly 100 MA adds a higher-timeframe confirmation.
When price is: below the Monthly 100 MA, it signals

* long-term trend damage
* compressed expectations
* reduced speculative excess

This combination has historically aligned with multi-year accumulation zones, not local pullbacks.

6️⃣ USDT.D Above 7%

Stablecoin dominance is a risk-off indicator.

When USDT.D is above ~7%:

* capital is parked on the sidelines
* fear is elevated
* risk appetite is suppressed

Macro accumulation tends to work best when:

* fear is high
* liquidity is defensive
* sentiment is negative

If this framework is useful, let me know if you’d like to see similar macro accumulation analysis for other assets.
Happy to break down additional charts using the same approach.
#ETH #Ethereum #TrendingTopic

#bitcoin doesn’t move randomly.
It repeats behavior; just at different prices.

When you zoom out and compare the previous cycle to the current one, the structure is almost identical.

Let’s break it down 👇

📈 Phase 1: Higher High
Both cycles started the same way.
A strong bullish expansion that convinced everyone the trend would last forever.

🐂 Momentum was strong. Sentiment was euphoric.

🔻 Phase 2: Structural Break
After the higher high, price failed to continue.
Support zones broke. Momentum shifted.

🧱 Phase 3: Weekly Low Reaction
In both cycles, Bitcoin found a major weekly low.
Buyers stepped in. Hope returned.

This is where most traders got confused... thinking the worst was over.

⏸️ Phase 4: Range
This is where we are now.

Price is no longer trending.
It’s digesting the prior move inside a wide range.

Volatility increases. Direction disappears.
Traders get chopped. Investors get tested.

This phase is not about speed, it’s about patience.

💡 Key Insight
Phase 4 is not bearish.
But it’s also not bullish.

It’s a transition phase... where weak hands exit, strong hands accumulate, and the next big move is quietly prepared.

The same movie.
Different year. Different price.

🤔 Question:
Do you think this range resolves the same way as the last cycle… or does Bitcoin surprise everyone this time?

⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk properly.

📚 Stick to your trading plan regarding entries, risk, and management.
#BTC #BTCVSGOLD #TrendingTopic
$BTC

I’ve talked quite a lot about the illusions in crypto. I’ve made fun of the arrival of altcoin season, and even about 3 weeks ago I wrote an article saying that if I want, I can see any chart bullish, even if I flip it upside down 🙂

It’s Sunday, I’m scrolling aimlessly on the internet and I keep seeing the same thing again, something that repeats like the voice of an alcoholic saying he’ll quit drinking again starting Monday.

Altcoin season is coming again.
These prices will never be found again.
BTC has hit the bottom again — a bottom that was also at 100k where it was the opportunity of a lifetime, at 90k it was an unbelievable bargain.

Again.
Again, and...
Again...

The idea is simple: I also had a 75k target, it went to 60k… I didn’t know. The one who said 60k didn’t know either. And nobody knows if it goes to 50, to 30, or to 250k by the end of the year.

That’s basically the idea.

No grand conclusions.
Just reality.

A Simple Advice

If I were to give one clear and simple piece of advice:
- Stop dreaming, start trading.
- Start learning technical analysis
- Start using money management

Not because TA predicts the future like a crystal ball, but because it gives structure.
Not because money management is exciting, but because it keeps you alive.

A Funny Story From Last Night (But Also Not Funny)

Funny story from last night — and I swear it’s real.

Last night I was out with a friend in the Old Town in Bucharest. We were celebrating… well, celebrating his sports betting ticket that hit with odds of 486. In crypto language: a 486x.

He does this every weekend — places a few tickets, about 100 RON each (around 20 EUR). Most lose, one hits once in a while, this one hit BIG.🙂

What’s truly funny is the contrast.

The same friend bought a crypto coin at the top in 2021. Since then, he’s been DCA-ing into what is objectively a garbage coin. Yesterday I even asked him about it and he told me he’s about 60k in the hole.

60k...for a guy that is not rich at all...

The irony writes itself.

Investing vs. Calling It Investing

The reality is he believes he’s an investor.

But he doesn’t know how to draw a trendline.
I’m more than convinced the first time he ever looked at his coin’s chart was when I tried to analyze it for him about two years ago.

He bought because of an influencer’s story.
Now he keeps DCA-ing endlessly, with the desperate hope that one day he’ll recover.

That’s not investing.
That’s anchoring to a mistake.

And psychologically, it’s not that different from betting slips — just slower and dressed in nicer words.

The Lesson Hidden in Plain Sight

There’s actually a lesson in the contrast:

With sports betting, he knows it’s gambling.
With crypto, he believes it’s investing.

But behavior matters more than labels.

If decisions are based on:
- influencers
- hope
- blind DCA
- refusal to reassess

Then the difference between gambling and investing/trading becomes very thin, if any.

The Market Owes Nobody a Recovery

Markets don’t care where you bought.
They don’t owe you a comeback.
They don’t reward loyalty.

Sometimes a bad asset stays bad forever.
Sometimes a narrative never returns.
Sometimes the “cycle comeback” is just a story people tell to cope.

Harsh? Maybe.
But expensive lessons are usually the honest ones.

The Real Shift

At some point, every trader faces a choice:

Treat the market like a place for dreams
or
Treat it like a place for decisions.

Dreams feel better.
Decisions work better.

Final Thought

You don’t need to predict bottoms.
You don’t need 100x stories.
You don’t need altcoin seasons to save you.

You need structure.
You need risk control.
You need honesty with yourself.

Stop dreaming.
Start trading.

Have a nice Sunday!
#Write2Earn #TrendingTopic #BinanceSquare
$BTC $GIGGLE $ASTER

Bitcoin just ended a major correction, a classic ABC. It was 53.56% strong (-53.56% from top to bottom).

The last weekly session produced the highest volume on the sell side since March 2024. The last bullish move started August 2024. This volume signal reveals that lower prices are likely in the latter part of 2026. It also reveals that any bullish action that starts now should be short-lived, short-term, and should end in a lower high.

The correction bottom reached $60,000 on a wick. Multiple support levels were pierced. The weekly session close happened at $70,330.

$BTC closed below the 0.5 Fib. retracement level in relation to the long-term market cycle, which sits at $70,839, but above the 0.618 level ($57,772). The fact that the 0.618 Fib. retracement level missed completely calls for some sort of relief rally, short-term bullish action.

This opens up two targets mainly right away, without going through too many calculus: 1) The previous high around $98,000 and 2) the 0.382 Fib. retracement level in relation to the current correction, which sits at $85,288. The latter is an easy, high probability target. This is the minimum price Bitcoin will challenge in the coming weeks.

We can speculate about other developments; the wave's size, shape and duration, but this is all irrelevant at this point. The most basic fact that can be extracted from this chart is that Bitcoin is going up as a market reaction to the strong down-move, an inverted correction.

This up-wave is bound to happen regardless of past cycles, ETFs, the news, astrology, moon landing, etc. The chart calls for a relief rally and this is what we will get. The rest is just hocus pocus and much speculative opining.

The most important development on this chart is the most recent move. Its duration was 119 days based on the weekly candles. The inverted correction's duration will happen in relation to this move because the market is reacting to it. The market is reacting to the fact that Bitcoin hit $60,000. To the fact that it pierced several strong long-term support levels but failed to close below them. The market will exploit this and push prices higher.

The inverted correction can last a maximum of 60 days, which is around half the time the duration of the main move.

39% of 119 days gives us 46 days. We are starting to form a picture as to the duration of the relief rally and I think this is enough for today.

While the inverted correction takes place on Bitcoin, the altcoins market will blow up.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin’s next big options gravity well sits on Mar. 27 (260327), and the reason is simple: this is where the market has parked a thick stack of conditional bets that will need to be unwound, rolled forward, or paid out as the clock runs down.
The Mar. 27 expiry carries about $8.65B in notional OI and flags $90,000 as max pain, a rough reference point for where, in aggregate, option holders would feel the most pain at settlement.
The broader options complex is enormous, with total BTC options open interest around $31.99B across exchanges, led by Deribit at roughly $25.56B, with the rest split across Binance.

That concentration can shape how price behaves on the way there, particularly when liquidity thins and hedging flows start to matter more than anyone wants to admit.
Options can often sound like some kind of private language of institutional traders, which is convenient right up until they start influencing spot price. Our goal here is to translate a crowded derivatives calendar into something legible: where the bets are concentrated, how that concentration can change behavior in spot markets, and why March 27 stands out.
March 27 and the shape of the bets
On Mar. 27 (260327), data shows more calls than puts, roughly 69.85K calls versus 53.25K puts, with puts carrying far more market value than calls in that moment.

That combination might look strange and even contradictory, until you translate it into everyday incentives.
Calls can be plentiful because they offer defined-risk upside exposure that feels emotionally painless to hold, while puts can be more expensive because downside protection is often bought closer to where it actually hurts, and it tends to get repriced more aggressively when the market is nervous.
The volume data adds a second clue about what was happening at the margin. For the same Mar. 27 expiry, CoinGlass data shows puts around 17.98K versus calls around 10.46K in trading volume, again with puts carrying the heavier market value.

That tells us the flow that day leans more toward paying for protection than chasing upside, even while the outstanding inventory still looks call-heavy on count.
Now place that against spot and the broader pile.
March can feel far away in calendar terms, especially when the market is this volatile, but in options terms, it's close enough to exert gravity once nearer expiries finish shuffling positions forward.
When one date holds several billion in notional, it becomes a focal point for rolling, hedging, and all of the other quiet mechanical work market makers do to stay roughly neutral as customers buy and sell convexity. While this doesn't guarantee a particular price, it does increase the odds of price behaving as if there are invisible grooves in the road, because in a derivatives-heavy market, hedging flows can add friction in some ranges and remove it in others.
That brings us to max pain. It's a bookkeeping-style calculation across strikes, not a law of nature and not a trading signal with a motor attached.
It can be a useful reference in the way a median can be useful, as a single marker that tells you something about the distribution, but it's blunt, and blunt tools are almost never the ones moving price.
What tends to matter more is where positions are crowded by strike, because crowding changes how much hedging needs to happen when spot moves. CoinGlass data shows a put/call ratio around 0.44, one more hint that the distribution is lopsided rather than smooth, and lopsided is the whole point because it's how a date stops being a calendar fact and becomes a market event.
There's a simple, non-trader way to hold all of this without turning it into fortune-telling.
As March approaches, crowded strikes can behave like zones where price movement feels oddly damped, then oddly jumpy, because the hedging response is not steady.
If Bitcoin wanders into a heavily populated region, the market’s automatic risk management can reinforce a range, and if Bitcoin moves hard enough to escape it, those same mechanics can flip into something that amplifies momentum instead of resisting it.
What's gamma doing while everyone argues about max pain
If options talk has a single word that scares off otherwise capable people, it's gamma, which is unfortunate because the idea is straightforward when you keep it tied to consequences rather than algebra.
Options have deltas, meaning their value changes with price, and gamma describes how quickly that sensitivity changes as price moves.
Dealers who sit on the other side of customer trades often hedge to reduce directional risk, and the practical version is that hedging can turn them into automatic buyers on dips and sellers on rallies near crowded strikes. This is one of the clearest explanations for why price can look magnetized to certain regions.
The reason this matters for a large expiry like Mar. 27 is that hedging intensity isn't constant through time.
As expiry approaches, near-the-money options tend to become more sensitive, and that can make hedging adjustments more frequent and more meaningful in size. That's where the idea of pinning comes from, the observation that price can spend suspiciously long periods hovering near certain strikes as hedgers lean against small moves.
It's often just a risk-control habit showing up in the tape, and it becomes easier to notice when open interest is large and concentrated.
CryptoSlate has covered similar episodes as the options market has matured, emphasizing that expiry effects are most visible when positioning is heavy and clustered, also noting that the calm can disappear after settlement as hedging pressure resets and new positions get rebuilt.
More traditional market reporting often treats max pain as a reference point while focusing attention on how expiry, positioning, and volatility interact.
The key is that the mechanism itself isn't mystical. A large options stack creates a second layer of trading activity that reacts to spot moves, and sometimes that reactive layer is large enough to be felt by everyone, including people who never touch derivatives.
Options greeks charts, with their stepped shapes, are a visual reminder that sensitivity changes in regimes rather than smoothly. They suggest exposure is concentrated around specific strike regions, so the hedging response can change character as spot crosses those zones.
That's why a single headline number like max pain is usually less informative than a sense of where open interest is thickest, because the thick zones are where hedging flows are most likely to show up as real buying or selling, regardless of what the settlement meme says.
February reshuffles, June anchors, March decides
Mar. 27 is the main event in your snapshot, but the supporting beats matter because they help explain how the March setup can change before it arrives.
The same max pain view shows a meaningful late-February expiry, Feb. 27 (260227), at about $6.14B notional with max pain around $85,000.
It also shows notable size further out, including a high concentration at late June (Jun 26, 260626), which serves as a reminder that positioning is not only about the next few weeks, it is also about the market’s longer-dated posture.
February matters because it's close enough to force real decisions.
Traders who don't want positions to expire often roll them, and rolling isn't just a calendar action, it's a change in where exposure sits.
If February positions get rolled into March, the March pile grows heavier, and the gravity well can deepen. If February positions are closed or shifted to different strikes, March can look less crowded than it does today, and the options map will change in a way that has nothing to do with headlines and everything to do with inventory management.
Either way, February is a likely moment for hedges to be adjusted and for the strike distribution to be reshaped, which is why it deserves attention even in a March-focused story.
June matters for a different reason. Far-dated size tends to decay more slowly and can function like an anchor for risk limits, which can affect how aggressively desks manage near-dated risk in March.
The presence of meaningful longer-dated positioning suggests the market is warehousing views about where Bitcoin could be by early summer. That kind of positioning doesn't dictate day-to-day price, but it can influence the tone of the market around March, including how quickly hedges are rolled forward and how much risk dealers are willing to wear.
So the practical takeaway is that the headline numbers aren't the story on their own.
The $8.65B notional on Mar. 27 and the $90,000 max pain marker tell you there's a crowded event on the calendar, but the mechanism worth watching is where the crowd is standing by strike and how hedging pressure behaves as time shrinks.
The path to March runs through February, when positions can be reshuffled, and it stretches toward June, where longer-dated size can shape how the market carries risk.
None of this replaces macro, flows, or fundamentals, and it doesn't need to. It's a layer of explanation for why Bitcoin can look oddly well-behaved.
When the options stack is this large, you can often see the outlines of the next pressure point in advance, as long as you treat max pain as a rough signpost and focus instead on the crowding that can make price feel sticky in one moment and surprisingly slippery in the next.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
$BTC

In the financial markets, traders are often categorized by how long they hold their positions. While some thrive on the adrenaline of buying and selling within minutes, others prefer to zoom out and capture the "big picture." This long-term approach is known as positional trading.

Positional traders hold investments for weeks, months, or even years to capitalize on major market trends. They ignore the daily noise and short-term volatility, relying instead on a combination of broad economic factors, company fundamentals, and high-timeframe technical signals.

In this comprehensive guide, we will define positional trading, compare it with other popular trading styles, explore actionable strategies, and break down the pros and cons to help you decide if this approach fits your trading personality.

Key Takeaways

Long-Term Focus: Positional trading involves holding assets for weeks, months, or years to ride out major market trends.

Dual Analysis: It heavily relies on a combination of fundamental analysis (economic data, earnings) and long-term technical analysis.

Stress-Free but Capital Intensive: While it offers lower stress and requires less screen time, it does expose traders to overnight risks and ties up capital for extended periods.

Top Strategies: Common methods include trend following, breakout trading, and value-based investing.

What is Positional Trading?

Positional trading is a long-term market strategy where the primary goal is to capture significant, sustained price movements over an extended period.

Instead of agonizing over small, intraday price fluctuations, positional traders analyze the overarching direction of the market—the primary trend. Once they identify this trend, they open a position and keep it active until the macroeconomic narrative or long-term technical structure changes.

The core philosophy is that the most profitable trends take time to develop and play out. By holding onto a trade through the inevitable short-term dips and rallies, positional traders aim to extract the maximum value from a macro move.

The Two Pillars of Positional Trading

To build conviction for a long-term hold, positional traders rely on two main forms of analysis:

Fundamental Analysis: This involves studying the underlying value of an asset. Traders look at economic indicators, interest rate policies, company earnings reports, and geopolitical events to determine long-term viability.

Technical Analysis: Traders use high-timeframe charts (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) and tools like moving averages, major support/resistance levels, and momentum indicators to optimize their entry and exit points.

Because these trades unfold over months or years, positional traders do not need to monitor the markets constantly. Their focus is on meticulous planning, strict risk management, and the patience to let the thesis play out.

Key Characteristics of Positional Trading

What makes a positional trader different from the rest of the market? Here are the defining traits:

Extended Holding Periods: Trades are kept open for weeks, months, or years, dictated entirely by the lifespan of the trend.

Focus on Macro Trends: The objective is to capture massive percentage gains from primary market cycles, not small daily pips.

Low Trading Frequency: Because positions are held for so long, positional traders execute far fewer trades than day or swing traders.

Patience and Psychological Discipline: Traders must remain unbothered during short-term market pullbacks and trust their initial long-term thesis.

Overnight/Weekend Exposure: By holding through market closures, positional traders are exposed to the risk of unexpected news events causing price "gaps."

Positional Trading vs. Other Trading Styles

To truly understand positional trading, it helps to compare it directly with the two other major trading styles: Swing Trading and Day Trading.

Position Trading vs. Swing Trading

Swing trading aims to capture short-to-medium-term price swings that last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Swing traders rely almost exclusively on technical setups and must react swiftly to shifting momentum.

By contrast, positional traders look past these minor swings. While a swing trader might buy a dip and sell the next rally, a positional trader will hold through multiple swings to capture the entire trend.

Holding Period: Position (Weeks to Years) vs. Swing (Days to Weeks)

Market Focus: Position (Macro Trends) vs. Swing (Medium-term Swings)

Trade Frequency: Position (Very Low) vs. Swing (Moderate)

Analysis Style: Position (Fundamental + Technical) vs. Swing (Technical)

Screen Time: Position (Low) vs. Swing (Moderate)

Position Trading vs. Day Trading

Day trading is the highest-octane trading style. Positions are opened and closed within the exact same trading day. Day traders absolutely refuse to hold assets overnight, relying heavily on intraday volatility (1-minute to 15-minute charts) and rapid execution.

Position trading is the polar opposite. A positional trader might look at the market only once a week. They are entirely unaffected by the intraday noise that a day trader relies on to make a living.

Holding Period: Position (Weeks to Years) vs. Day (Minutes to Hours)

Market Focus: Position (Market Cycles) vs. Day (Intraday Volatility)

Trade Frequency: Position (Very Low) vs. Day (Extremely High)

Time Commitment: Position (Minimal) vs. Day (Full-time)

Risk Exposure: Position (Overnight/Weekend Gaps) vs. Day (Zero Overnight Risk)

How to Execute a Positional Trade

Successful positional trading requires a highly structured, systematic approach. Here is the standard lifecycle of a positional trade:

Identify the Start of a Trend or Breakout: Traders scan high-timeframe charts for assets breaking out of multi-year resistance levels or forming the early stages of a new macro trend.

Hold Through the Noise (Retracements): Once the position is live, the asset will inevitably pull back. Positional traders do not panic-sell during these normal market retracements; they hold firm as long as the broader structure remains intact.

Ride the Wave: The hardest part of positional trading is doing nothing. The goal is to patiently let the investment compound over time as the trend continues.

Exit on Confirmation: No trend lasts forever. Traders use major chart patterns (like a macro Head and Shoulders) or fundamental shifts (like a change in central bank interest rates) to signal that the trend is exhausted, allowing them to secure their profits.

Top Positional Trading Strategies

Positional traders utilize various strategies depending on the asset class and their preferred analytical tools. Here are the most effective methods:

Trend Following This is the bread-and-butter of positional trading. The strategy is straightforward: identify a strong, established upward or downward trend and jump on board. Traders use tools like long-term Moving Averages (e.g., the 200-day MA) to confirm the trend's validity. As long as the price remains above the moving average, the trade stays open.

Breakout Trading Breakout trading involves entering a market right as it shatters a major, long-standing level of support or resistance. These breakouts often act as the catalyst for massive, multi-month price movements because they signify a permanent shift in market psychology. Positional traders usually wait for confirmation—like a weekly candle close with high volume—before committing capital.

Value-Based Investing Heavily utilized in the stock and commodity markets, this fundamental strategy involves finding assets that are priced below their intrinsic "true value." Traders analyze corporate earnings, supply/demand economics, and industry health to find these discrepancies. They buy the undervalued asset and hold it—sometimes for years—until the broader market realizes its true worth and corrects the price upwards.

Technical Indicator Confirmation To perfectly time these macro entries and exits, positional traders layer long-term technical indicators over their fundamental thesis:

Moving Averages (MA): To dictate the primary trend direction.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): To identify extreme overbought or oversold conditions on a weekly or monthly scale, signaling a potential macro reversal.

MACD: To confirm that the long-term momentum aligns with the trade direction.

The Pros and Cons of Positional Trading

Is positional trading right for you? Weigh the advantages and disadvantages below.

The Benefits

Massive Profit Potential: Catching a multi-year trend can result in life-changing percentage gains that dwarf the returns of short-term scalping.

Low Stress & Time Freedom: Because you aren't fighting intraday volatility, you don't need to stare at charts all day. It is highly suitable for people with full-time jobs.

Cost Efficiency: Fewer trades mean you pay significantly less in broker commissions and spread fees.

The Risks

Overnight and Weekend Exposure: Markets can gap aggressively while you sleep due to unexpected geopolitical news or earnings reports, bypassing your stop-loss.

Locked-Up Capital: Your funds are tied to a single asset for months or years, creating an "opportunity cost" where you cannot deploy that capital elsewhere.

Wide Stop-Losses: Because you are trading high timeframes, your stop-loss must be wide enough to survive normal weekly volatility, meaning your dollar-risk per trade can be larger.

Psychological Strain: It takes immense mental fortitude to watch your portfolio drop 15% in a pullback and still refuse to sell because the "macro trend is intact."

Conclusion

Positional trading is the ultimate test of patience and market conviction. It is a long-term strategy built on capturing the macroeconomic big picture rather than day-to-day noise.

By marrying fundamental valuation with high-timeframe technical analysis, positional traders position themselves to ride massive market waves for weeks, months, or years. While it offers the distinct advantages of lower stress, fewer fees, and the potential for massive returns, it demands strict discipline, wide risk parameters, and the willingness to tie up capital for extended periods.

Ultimately, positional trading is the perfect style for analytical thinkers who prefer a slower, more calculated approach to wealth generation.
#training #TrendingTopic #Write2Earn

Bitcoin rocketed up 15% to get back above $70,000 but the options market is currently pricing in a terrifying new floor
Skew near -13% and heavy downside hedging hint $70,000 could be a pause before the next volatility wave.
Bitcoin ripped from $60,000 to above $70,000 in less than 24 hours, erasing most of a brutal 14% drawdown that had tested every bottom-calling thesis in the market.
The speed of the reversal, 12% in a single session and 17% off the intraday low, was violent enough to feel like a capitulation resolved. Yet, the mechanics beneath the bounce tell a different story: this was cross-asset stabilization meeting forced-position rebalancing, not a flood of conviction-driven spot demand.
And the derivatives market, still crowded into downside protection, is pricing the possibility that $70,000 becomes a pause rather than a floor.
Forced unwinds met macro stress
Feb. 5 opened near $73,100, traded briefly higher, then collapsed to $62,600 by close, a one-day decline that liquidated approximately $1 billion in leveraged Bitcoin positions, according to CoinGlass data.
That figure alone captures the forced-selling cascade, but the broader picture was worse.
Open interest in BTC futures fell from roughly $61 billion to $49 billion over the prior week, according to CoinGlass, meaning the market had already been shedding leverage when the final flush hit.
The trigger wasn't crypto-specific. Reports framed the selloff as a weakening of risk sentiment, driven by tech-stock selling and a volatility shock in precious metals, with silver declining by as much as 18% to around $72.21, dragging down correlated risk assets.
Analyst research confirmed the spillover, noting that derivatives sentiment turned extremely bearish, with funding rates negative, inverted implied volatility term structures, and a 25-delta risk-reversal skew crushed to approximately -13%.
These are classic “crowded fear” conditions in which positioning amplifies price moves in both directions.
A policy narrative added fuel. Reuters reported market reaction to President Donald Trump's selection of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve chair, with traders interpreting the choice as signaling balance-sheet contraction and tighter liquidity conditions ahead.
Meanwhile, miners faced acute margin pressure. TheMinerMag reported that hash price fell below $32 per petahash per second, with network difficulty projected to drop roughly 13.37% within two days. This relief valve wouldn't arrive until after the price had already broken support.

Macro reversal plus squeeze mechanics
Feb. 6 opened where Feb. 5 closed, dropped to an intraday low near $60,000, then ripped to a high around $71,422, which it failed to breach three times before dropping back below $70,000.
The catalyst wasn't internal to crypto, but a sharp reversal in the cross-asset tape. Wall Street surged: the S&P 500 up 1.97%, Nasdaq up 2.18%, Dow up 2.47%, and the SOX semiconductor index up 5.7%.
Metals snapped back hard, with gold up 3.9% and silver up 8.6%, while the dollar index fell 0.2%, signaling a looser financial conditions impulse.
Bitcoin moved mechanically with that shift. The correlation isn't subtle: when tech stabilizes and metals rebound, BTC gets pulled along via shared risk exposure.
However, the violence of the snapback also reflects the derivatives' positioning. Skew near -13%, negative funding, and inverted volatility structures create conditions where any macro relief can trigger short-covering and forced rebalancing.
The rebound was driven by a liquidity event, amplified by the unwinding of crowded short positions.
Nevertheless, the forward-looking signal remains bearish. Derive data showing heavy put open interest concentrated at $60,000-$50,000 strike prices for the Feb. 27 expiry.
Derive's Sean Dawson told Reuters that the downside demand is “extreme.” That's not hindsight analysis, but traders explicitly hedging for another leg lower, even after the bounce.

Can $70k hold? The framework
The case for holding above $70,000 rests on three conditions.
First, the macroeconomic rebound needs to persist, with technology continuing to stabilize, yields not re-tightening, and the dollar not re-tightening.
The bounce was explicitly cross-asset. If equities roll over again, BTC won't decouple.Second, leverage needs to continue to cool without fresh forced selling. Open interest has already dropped hard, reducing air-pocket risk.
Third, miner stress needs real relief when the difficulty adjustment lands.
If price holds within that window, the projected 13.37% drop could reduce marginal selling pressure and allow hashrate to stabilize.
The case for another shakeout has three legs.
First, options positioning remains skewed toward the downside. The largest put concentration is at $60,000-$50,000 in late February, a forward-looking signal embedded in market-implied probabilities rather than backward-looking sentiment.
Second, derivatives signals remain fragile. Skew near extremes, recently negative funding, and inverted volatility structures are consistent with a relief rally inside a fear regime rather than a trend reversal.
Third, ETF flow data show persistent outflows. Bitcoin ETFs registered $690 million in monthly net outflows as of Feb. 5.
Although the Feb. 6 results are not yet available, the pattern suggests institutional allocators haven't shifted from de-risking to re-engagement.

What $70k actually means
The level itself isn't magical. The significance lies in its position above Glassnode's identified on-chain absorption cluster between $66,900 and $70,600.
Holding above $70,000 would suggest that the cluster absorbed enough supply to stabilize price action, at least temporarily. Yet, holding requires more than technical support. It requires spot demand returning while derivatives hedging unwinds and institutional flows stabilize.
The rebound off $60,000 was real, but its composition matters. Cross-asset stabilization can reverse if macro conditions shift.
Forced-position unwinding creates mechanical bounces that don't necessarily translate into sustained trends. And options traders are still pricing a meaningful probability of a move toward $50,000-$60,000 over the next three weeks.
Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000, but it is already consolidating below that level, suggesting a pause before another test in which three conditions must occur sequentially: macro risk appetite holding, ETF outflows decelerating or reversing, and derivatives sentiment normalizing beyond short-term relief.
The market delivered a violent snapback, but the forward curve and flow data suggest traders aren't yet betting on durability. The $70,000 level isn't the endgame, it's just the level where the next phase of the argument gets decided.
#BTC #bitcoin #WhenWillBTCRebound
$BTC