GEMINI

224,248.67 BTC was transferred in a single block, which is nearly $20B worth of #Bitcoin moved at once. Transactions of this size are extremely rare and clearly not retail driven. This kind of activity is usually linked to whale level players such as exchanges reorganizing cold wallets, institutional custody movements or large OTC settlements rather than immediate market selling.

The transfer itself is not the real signal, what matters is whether these funds stay idle or start moving toward exchanges, because that is where market sentiment can shift quickly. For now, it simply confirms that major players are active and positioning quietly.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Heavy volatility in the crypto market over the last 24 hours led to the liquidation of 117,154 traders, pushing total liquidations to $212.17 million. The largest single liquidation was a #BTCUSD position on Hyperliquid worth $3.56 million ❗️

Anfang 2023 war die kombinierte Marktkapitalisierung aller #altcoins größer als #bitcoin . Seitdem hat Bitcoin stetig aufgeholt und die Lücke bis Juli 2025 auf fast 1,1 Billionen Dollar verschoben. Selbst heute bleibt der Unterschied stark bei etwa 606 Milliarden Dollar zugunsten von Bitcoin.

Diese Verschiebung hebt hervor, wohin das Kapital geflossen ist. Anstatt das Risiko auf mehrere Münzen zu verteilen, haben Investoren sich auf Bitcoin als das zentrale Haltevermögen konzentriert. In Zeiten, in denen das Vertrauen selektiv ist, neigt das Geld dazu, sich auf das Vermögen mit der stärksten Erfolgsbilanz zu bewegen.

#Bitcoin has broken below the 0.75 supply cost basis level and continues to trade beneath it, showing weakness in market structure. With price now below the cost basis of around 75 percent of holders, selling pressure is likely to increase as confidence fades. This zone has historically acted as a key support and failure to reclaim it shifts the balance toward risk off conditions. Unless Bitcoin can recover this level soon, downside risk remains the primary scenario.

Aktuelle On-Chain- und Derivatedaten heben den steigenden Druck auf #Bitcoin. Große Inhaber haben BTC im Wert von über 400 Millionen Dollar auf Spot-Börsen transferiert, was oft ein Vorbote von Verkaufsaktivitäten ist. In der Zwischenzeit zeigen Binance-Derivate ein negatives Netto-Taker-Volumen, was darauf hindeutet, dass Verkaufsaufträge die Kaufaufträge übersteigen.

Strong selling pressure defined the last red hourly candle, with sellers exceeding buyers by nearly $293 million. This shift reflects clear bearish control, buyers failed to absorb the selling flow during that period. Continued weakness is likely unless demand returns with strength.

Market stress is building as the supply of #Bitcoin held at a loss reaches 6.7 million BTC on a 7 day moving average, the highest point in this cycle. Since mid-November, this level has stayed within the 6 to 7 million #BTC zone, closely matching behavior seen during transition phases of earlier market cycles.

Prolonged periods with such a large amount of underwater supply tend to amplify frustration among holders. Historically, this environment has often preceded further downside, with capitulation emerging at lower prices once selling pressure intensifies and weaker participants exit the market.

Spot market activity still lacks the consistent, high conviction accumulation that typically drives strong trend expansion. However, the recent transition back to net buying across major exchanges is an encouraging structural signal. It points to a gradual rebuilding of demand and suggests that selling pressure is easing, which could support a more constructive market setup if this behavior holds.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has moved from Fear to Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin Austauschzuflüsse von Walen sind stark gesunken, fast dreimal im Vergleich zu Ende November. Dieser Rückgang zeigt, dass große Inhaber keinen starken Verkaufsdruck mehr ausüben, sondern sich stattdessen entscheiden, während der laufenden Konsolidierung zu halten. Ein solches Verhalten unterstützt typischerweise die Preisstabilität und kann günstige Bedingungen für die nächste Richtungsbewegung schaffen, sobald das Marktvertrauen gestärkt wird.

The November-December bottoming phase was marked by a clear divergence in behavior across cohorts. Larger entities were actively accumulating supply, while smaller holders continued to distribute.

This imbalance was partly driven by exchange related wallet reshuffling, but it also reflected intentional dip buying by large holders. As a result, supply was gradually absorbed by stronger hands, even as retail participation remained cautious, helping establish a more stable price base.

Derivatives markets remain defensive, with leverage staying light across futures. Open Interest continues to lag, and funding rates sit flat to mildly negative, highlighting hesitation among leveraged traders. Perpetual contracts show little appetite for aggressive longs, participants are waiting for clearer direction.

Positioning looks neutral overall, with no visible leverage imbalance that could fuel sharp liquidations. As a result, market direction is being shaped more by spot demand, liquidity conditions, and macro developments than by futures speculation. A sustained trend will likely require renewed participation from leveraged players or a strong external catalyst to break the current stalemate.

Still Fear 👀

For the first time since October 2023, #Bitcoin has entered a phase where holders are realizing losses over a 30 day period. This trend has been visible since late December and reflects rising uncertainty, as investors respond to ongoing price pressure and short term market instability.

From a structural standpoint, the $98K region is a critical area to watch. It aligns closely with the Short Term Holder (STH) cost basis at roughly $98.3K, which represents the average entry price of recent market participants, according to Glassnode data. Historically, Glassnode highlights that reclaiming and holding above the Short Term Holder cost basis has often marked the transition from corrective phases into more sustained uptrends.

This shift typically reflects improving sentiment among short term holders, as price action moves back into profitable territory and selling pressure begins to fade. A clean hold above this zone would reinforce bullish structure and open the door for continuation. Failure to do so, however, could keep price trapped in consolidation, with short term uncertainty remaining elevated.

Im Moment zeigt #XRP eine Marktstruktur, die stark der Einrichtung ähnelt, die im Februar 2022 zu beobachten war. Die Akkumulation wird jetzt von Teilnehmern im Bereich von 1 Woche bis 1 Monat angeführt, wobei ihr durchschnittlicher Einstieg unter dem Kostenbasis der Inhaber aus der Gruppe von 6 bis 12 Monaten liegt. Dieser Wechsel versetzt neuere Investoren in eine relativ stärkere Position.

Da diese Struktur intakt bleibt, steigt der Druck auf diejenigen, die zu höheren Preisen eingestiegen sind, weiter an. Je länger der Preis unter ihrer Kostenbasis bleibt, desto mehr psychologischer Druck entsteht, was letztendlich zu einer reduzierten Überzeugung beim Halten oder zum Verkauf in Entlastungsrallies führen kann. Historisch gesehen entwickelt sich diese Art von Struktur oft vor einer wichtigen Marktentscheidung.

Since November 2025, new investors have been holding positions at a net unrealized loss, as shown by the STH NUPL metric, which compares short term holder profit and loss against their market cap.

A sustained move above the ~$98K level appears to be the critical threshold to flip this cohort back into net profit. Until price reclaims this zone, short term holders are likely to remain cautious, with rallies facing resistance from sell pressure near breakeven levels.

Just before the drop, whales exited their #Bitcoin long positions. By the time panic hit the market, smart money was already out. They don’t trade emotions or hype. They trade data, liquidity and timing.

Der #Bitcoin Angst- und Gier-Index hat sich von neutral zu Angst verschoben 👀