OTC $BTC activity is at record lows whales aren’t selling.
Why this matters: • In a true bear market, long-term and institutional holders would be offloading. • Low OTC volume means selling pressure is absent, even as prices dip. • Strong hands are holding, not distributing, which tightens supply.
When demand persists but selling dries up, price often surprises to the upside, not down.
🚨THIS IS PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT MACRO EVENT OF THIS WEEK.
And yet, almost no one is paying attention.
I’m not talking about Trump tariffs. I’m not talking about Gold and Silver hitting new highs.
For the first time in over a decade, the New York Fed is openly signaling intervention in the Japanese yen.
That is a big deal.
Japanese government bond yields keep pushing to extreme levels. The Bank of Japan is still in a hawkish mode. And the yen is falling continuously.
When bond yields rise, the currency usually strengthens.
In Japan, the opposite is happening.
That is a sign something is breaking, and investors are feeling pessimistic about Japan’s economy.
As we know, Japan’s poor economic condition is horrible for the global economy.
And it looks like US policymakers are finally taking this risk seriously.
The New York Fed’s comments suggest a shift. They are now willing to step in and support the yen.
Here is how this usually works.
To support a currency, a central bank uses its own money. They create or use reserves, sell their own currency, and use that money to buy the currency they want to protect.
In simple terms: The US would sell dollars and buy yen.
That is why markets reacted fast.
The US dollar index just printed one of its weakest weekly candles in months.
Traders are already pricing in a potential dollar devaluation and a stronger yen.
This is not just about helping Japan.
A weaker dollar actually helps the US government.
When the dollar loses value, future US debt becomes easier to deal with. The government still pays the same number of dollars, but those dollars are worth less in real terms.
A weaker dollar also makes US exports cheaper for the rest of the world, which reduces the trade deficit.
So supporting the yen while letting the dollar weaken is not a loss for the US. It is a policy choice that benefits both sides.
But the biggest winners are not governments. They are asset holders.
When a reserve currency like the dollar is devalued, assets priced in that currency usually go up.
BREAKING : Russia has sold over 71% of its gold reserves inside the National Wealth Fund to finance its war spending.
The National Wealth Fund is Russia’s emergency cash reserve. It is the pool used to cover budget gaps when oil revenues fall or spending explodes. Before the war, this fund held more than $113 billion in liquid assets. Today, it is close to $50 billion. More than half of Russia’s financial buffer is already gone.
At the same time, Russia’s military budget is now larger than its total oil and gas revenue.
For decades, oil paid for everything. Now war costs more than energy earns.
Oil and gas revenue is collapsing:
- Down 22% year-over-year in 2025 - November alone was down 34% - Discounts on Russian crude keep increasing - Sanctions are tightening logistics and payments
Meanwhile, the budget deficit has exploded:
Planned: 1.2 trillion rubles
Revised: 5.7 trillion rubles That is a 5x jump in one year.
This is why Russia is selling its gold inside the NWF.
At current burn rates, economists estimate the liquid part of the fund runs out around mid 2026. That is the real timeline the market should be watching.
When that happens, Russia faces only four choices:
🚨 GOLD JUST FLIPPED THE DOLLAR FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 30 YEARS
It finally happened.
Just look at this image.
The data is in, and it is TERRIFYING.
Especially if you live in the USA.
For the first time in 3 decades, central banks hold more gold than U.S. debt.
Every nation is losing trust in the US dollar.
Foreign countries do not care about earning interest anymore, they are terrified of losing their principal.
You cannot blame them though.
US Treasuries can be seized. They can be inflated away.
While gold has zero counterparty risk. It is the only true neutral asset.
Here is the part people miss.
Sanctions changed everything. Reserves became a weapon. That one statement explains a lot.
If you own a promise, it can get frozen. If you own gold, you own it.
BUT IT GETS WORSE.
U.S. debt is rising by $1 Trillion every 100 days. Interest payments are passing $1 Trillion per year.
The Fed has to print. The world sees the debasement coming, and they are getting out now.
YOU CAN SEE IT IN THE RESERVES.
China, Russia, India, Poland, Singapore, everyone is dumping paper for hard assets.
And do not forget about the BRICS alliance. This is not just about trade deals.
THE GOAL IS DE DOLLARIZATION.
Create independent payment rails to bypass SWIFT, settle energy in local currencies, and back it all with commodities that cannot be printed out of thin air, like gold and silver.
When 40%+ of the global population decides they do not need the dollar, demand is GONE.
The era of TINA is over. Gold is the alternative.
Is this the fall of the U.S. dollar? - YES, ABSOLUTELY.
You think silver at $100 and gold at $5,000 is crazy
Then you are not prepared for what is coming.
I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.
Wenn ein Vermögenswert ein neues Allzeithoch erreicht, dominieren zwei Emotionen den Markt:
Gier und Angst.
Gier sagt: „Es wird höher steigen. Verpass es nicht.“ Angst sagt: „Wenn ich jetzt nicht kaufe, werde ich es für immer bereuen.“
So entsteht FOMO.
Aber Märkte bewegen sich nicht aufgrund von Emotionen. Sie bewegen sich aufgrund von Liquidität, Positionierung und Psychologie.
An wichtigen historischen Niveaus, insbesondere runden Zahlen wie $5,000, können normalerweise drei Dinge passieren:
1. Frühe Käufer realisieren Gewinne.
2. Späte Käufer drängen emotional herein.
3. Volatilität steigt stark an.
Aber das bedeutet nicht, dass Gold nicht höher steigen kann.
Es bedeutet, dass sich das Risiko-Ertrags-Verhältnis ändert.
In der Nähe von Allzeithochs zu kaufen ist nicht immer falsch, aber es ist gefährlich, wenn es emotional geschieht.
Intelligentes Kapital denkt anders:
Sie fragen nicht, „Wird es morgen höher steigen?“
Sie fragen, „Wie viel kann ich verlieren, wenn ich falsch liege?“
• Gold kann langfristig immer noch höher steigen • Ein Rückgang oder eine Konsolidierung ist nach parabolischen Bewegungen sehr normal • Den Preis nach vertikalen Rallyes zu jagen, ist der Weg, wie die meisten Einzelhandelsgelder verloren gehen
Also, was ist der intelligente Ansatz?
Nicht FOMO. Nicht Panik.
Sondern Struktur.
Drei kluge Optionen:
1. Auf einen Rückgang warten Lass die Emotionen abkühlen. Lass schwache Hände aussteigen.
2. Durchschnittskostenmethode (kleine Käufe) Statt eines großen emotionalen Einstiegs.
3. Nur kaufen, wenn dein Risiko definiert ist Mit einem klaren Plan, nicht mit Hoffnung.
Der Markt belohnt Geduld… und bestraft Dringlichkeit.
Einen Handel zu verpassen wird deine Zukunft nicht zerstören.
Aber emotional in den falschen Handel einzutreten kann dein Kapital zerstören.
Denke daran:
Chancen sind unbegrenzt. Kapital ist es nicht.
Gold wird viele Chancen bieten.
Deine Aufgabe ist es nicht, den Höhepunkt oder den Tiefpunkt zu erwischen.
Deine Aufgabe ist es, zu überleben, zu wachsen und rational zu bleiben.
Rule of thumb for beginners in the stock market for investment in fundamentally solid stocks:
1. If price drops 10%, just hold 2. If price drops 20%, add 10% 3. If price drops 30%, add 30% 4. If price drops 40%, add 30% 5. If price drops 50%, add 50% 6. If price goes up 10%, just hold 7. If price goes up 20%, still hold 8. If price goes up 30%, sell 10% 9. If price goes up 40%, sell 20% 10. If price goes up 50%, sell 30% 11. If price goes up 60%, sell 40% 12. If price goes up 100%, sell all #BTC #ETHMarketWatch #binance