🔴🔵 BTC + ETH | The market is absorbing — not collapsing Powered by Brainer ⚡
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are bleeding right now. Red candles, high volume, momentum to the downside. The headline looks bearish. The data tells a more interesting story.
What the numbers actually say: On ETH, exhaustion hit 100% on the 5M and 99% on the 15M — the highest readings possible. On BTC, sigma is at -2.28, statistically significant selling pressure by any measure. Efficiency on ETH is running at 400%, BTC at 220–264%. That means price is moving far more than the actual delta behind the move justifies. In plain language: sellers are pushing, but someone on the other side is quietly absorbing every order. The candles look violent. The real pressure underneath is not as large as it appears. This is what institutional accumulation looks like from the outside.
Does this mean buy now? No. All timeframes on both assets remain fully bearish. Three Black Crows confirmed on ETH. Bearish manipulation signals active on the 30M. The trend hasn't changed and we're not calling a reversal. What it means is that the move is running on fumes. A relief bounce is coming before the next leg down — and the liquidation heatmap already shows the roadmap. On ETH, the yellow long liquidation cluster at $1,895–$1,905 is the likely sweep target below before the bounce toward $1,950–$1,960. On BTC, the yellow cluster at $65,800–$66,100 is the immediate magnet, with the bounce targeting $67,400–$67,600 where the dominant short liquidation cluster sits. The market is about to shake out both sides. Longs first, then shorts. Watch the levels. Don't chase candles.
ETH followed BTC lower and broke through everything in a single session — Daily VWAP, EMA21, EMA50, EMA200, Middle trend line, Fib 0.618, all in one move. All 9 timeframes are bearish with no exceptions. Three Black Crows confirmed on Weekly. Weekly VWAP at $2,002 is now overhead resistance, not support.
There's a short-term bounce happening right now — but read the data, not the candles. On the 1H chart, efficiency is at 1,032%, meaning price is moving while almost nobody is actually buying. On the 15M, sigma hit -2.36 — statistically significant selling pressure that just paused. The Weekly exhaustion is at 1%, which means sellers on that timeframe have almost nothing left — a relief rally is increasingly likely before the next leg down.
The liquidation heatmap is clear: the largest cluster above sits at $1,995–$2,005 (yellow zone, confirmed across all timeframes). That's where the bounce is likely headed — and that's exactly where the best short entry sits. Below price, $1,920–$1,930 and $1,900–$1,910 are loaded with long liquidations — those are the targets.
⚠️ AVOID shorts at current price — support cluster only $8 below. Price is squeezed with no room for a clean entry. Wait for the bounce to reach one of the short zones above.
Sellers demolished every major level one by one — EMA21, EMA200, Daily VWAP, Weekly VWAP, Middle trend line, Fibonacci levels — all gone within just a few candles. Three Black Crows is now confirmed on the Monthly chart, which is one of the strongest continuation signals in technical analysis. Weekly BrainWaves sitting at -69, only 11 points from extreme oversold at -80, still falling. Monthly sellers are pressing with conviction.
Right now, a short-term bounce is in play. But don't be fooled — the bounce is not real buying. Efficiency on lower timeframes is astronomical, meaning price is moving on almost zero real volume. Ghost rally. Every green candle is a gift to re-enter shorts at better levels.
The liquidation heatmap confirms the game plan: heaviest short liquidation clusters sit at $67,400–$67,800 and $67,800–$68,100 — both directly overlapping with the key resistance clusters above. That's where the real setup is.
⚠️ AVOID shorts at current price — support cluster only $642 below. Wait for Daily VWAP at $66,919 or the stronger cluster at $67,566 before entering short.
📊 ACCURACY CHECK | BTC + ETH | Feb 18 → Feb 19 Analysis powered by Brainer ⚡ @LuxCorax
🔴 BITCOIN — Called vs Reality Yesterday at $65,284 — Bearish, bounce expected before continuation. ✅ Bounce predicted — price bounced +$1,480 (+2.3%) exactly as called ✅ Three Black Crows Monthly — still active, pattern playing out ✅ All 9 timeframes bearish — confirmed, zero timeframes flipped ✅ Short entry zone $65,767–$65,885 — hit during the rally The bounce we warned about showed up on schedule. Bears in full control.
🔵 ETHEREUM — Called vs Reality Yesterday at $1,967 — Bearish, "bounce is a trap, not a reversal." ✅ Bearish bias — confirmed, price declined and stayed suppressed ✅ Short Zone 1 ($1,973–$1,977) — price hit and rejected exactly there ✅ Short Zone 2 ($1,985) — held perfectly, R:R 6.5:1 ✅ Bearish Manipulation signal — confirmed across all timeframes ✅ BrainWaves bearish alignment — all timeframes still locked in The bounce stalled at the exact resistance zones called the day before. Trap for buyers, as predicted.
🎯 7/7 CALLS CORRECT. 100% ACCURACY. Direction on point. Levels respected. Bears still in control on both assets — waiting for the next clean setup at structure.
🌍 MACRO PICTURE | Feb 18, 2026 While everyone is watching crypto charts, the bigger picture is telling an important story. Traditional markets today: S&P 500 +1% | Nasdaq +1.4% | Dow +0.6% Stocks are green — but crypto is still red. When capital flows into tech stocks instead of crypto, that's a clear signal: risk appetite exists, but it's selective. Traders are choosing "safe" growth over speculative assets right now.
What's actually moving markets:
Nvidia +2% on the back of a massive Meta AI chip deal. Amazon +2.3% after Pershing Square increased its stake by 65%. Micron +6% on institutional buying. The AI trade is alive — but the money is staying in equities, not rotating into crypto.
Meanwhile, Palo Alto Networks dropped 8% on weak guidance. The software sector is under pressure from AI disruption fears. ETH and altcoins don't exist in a vacuum — they feel this sentiment directly.
Oil jumped 3% on U.S.-Iran tensions. Geopolitical risk historically isn't crypto-friendly in the short term.
The real event to watch — Friday PCE:
FOMC minutes today are just the appetizer. The main course is Friday's PCE data — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Markets are in a holding pattern until then.
PCE comes in hot → more selling pressure on crypto. PCE comes in soft → potential relief rally. Either way, volatility is coming.
Bottom line:
Institutional money is moving — but it's going into Nvidia, Amazon, and Micron. Not Bitcoin. Not Ethereum. Until that changes, every crypto bounce remains a selling opportunity.
⚠️ MACRO ALERT | FOMC Minutes Drop Today | Feb 18, 2026 Today the Fed releases the January FOMC meeting minutes. This is a volatility event for crypto — here's what to expect.
The Setup: Powell already told us there's "no rush to cut rates." The question is whether today's minutes confirm that hawkish stance or hint at future cuts. With 92% probability already priced in for a March rate hold, the bar for a surprise is high.
Scenario 1 — Hawkish (more likely): Minutes emphasize patience and inflation risks → selling pressure continues. This would reinforce the bearish trend already in play on both BTC and ETH. No change to the plan — rallies remain sell opportunities.
Scenario 2 — Dovish (less likely): Minutes hint at concern over slowing growth → short-term relief rally possible. BTC could bounce toward $67,600–$67,800. ETH toward $1,985–$1,991. Both would still be short entries within the dominant downtrend.
The key context: January CPI came in at 2.4% — below expectations and the lowest reading in over four years. That's fundamentally dovish. But markets have already adjusted. The only way crypto gets a meaningful bid is if the minutes are more dovish than the market expects — which is a high bar right now.
Bottom line: Bearish bias stays regardless of the outcome. Hawkish minutes accelerate the move down. Dovish minutes give better short entries at higher levels. Manage your risk accordingly — volatility is coming either way.
Every single timeframe — 5-minute all the way to monthly — is aligned bearish. No exceptions. The monthly chart just broke below Fib 0.236 at $2,228 AND the Daily VWAP at $1,966 in the same candle. Two major bearish signals firing simultaneously on the biggest timeframe. The 12H selling momentum is at -205% and still weakening, with exhaustion at only 29% — sellers on the swing timeframe are far from done. ETH is also significantly underperforming BTC right now, which historically means it falls harder and recovers slower.
The play: Any bounce into $1,988–$2,014 is a short entry. Stronger short at $2,023–$2,040 if price gets there.
ETH is in a confirmed downtrend on every timeframe, dropping harder than BTC. The immediate path of least resistance is lower. Rallies are selling opportunities, not buying ones — until price can close back above $2,040.
One caveat worth watching: weekly exhaustion is at just 1% and institutions are quietly accumulating on the monthly timeframe. This doesn't stop the trend, but it does mean a sharp relief bounce can happen at any moment before the next leg down.
🔴 BTC DAILY UPDATE | Feb 18, 2026 Current Price: $67,354
Every single timeframe — from 5-minute to monthly — is aligned bearish. No exceptions.
The weekly chart just broke below the 200 EMA for the first time in months. That's a macro-level warning sign. Weekly BrainWaves at -68 and falling, approaching extreme oversold. Weekly exhaustion at only 12% — this move is fresh, not running on fumes.
The play: Price is sitting just $62 below the first resistance cluster. A small bounce into $67,415–$67,480 is the short entry — tight, clean, high probability rejection zone.
One note of caution — the monthly delta is accumulating, meaning bigger players are quietly absorbing the selling. A sharp bounce can come at any moment before the next leg down. Don't chase shorts into thin air.
Bias stays bearish until price closes above $67,788.
🧠 KEY METRICS: - Weekly BrainWaves: -62 (extreme oversold) - Weekly exhaustion: 1% — this is the LOWEST in 100 bars - Three Black Crows on Weekly vs Three White Soldiers on Daily - Delta turning positive on lower timeframes
🧠 KEY METRICS: - Weekly BrainWaves: -68 (extreme oversold) - Weekly exhaustion: only 3% — sellers have room to push - RSI Bullish Div on 4H vs Hidden Bearish Div on 12H — conflict
🔴 ETH ANALYSIS | $1,920 Higher timeframes (1H-Weekly) all bearish, but LTF showing explosive reversal signals with 773% volume on 5M. Current situation: Price squeezed in tight $50 range — Previous day low cluster ($1,897) just $20 below, Middle trend line cluster ($1,940) only $22 above. Compression waiting to resolve. Why bounce first:
5M volume at 773% — extreme participation BrainWaves crossed zero UP on 5M 15M exhaustion at 5% — fresh move 4H Three White Soldiers (2 bars ago) Multiple bullish divergences on 30M/1H
Why still bearish after bounce:
12H Bearish Engulfing current Weekly Three Black Crows current Weekly exhaustion 39% — sellers have room Liquidation clusters below at $1,850 and $1,800
Trade setup: 📍 Wait for bounce to $1,940–$1,950 (MID + PDC + D-VWAP cluster) 🛑 Stop: $1,965 🎯 TP1: $1,897 (R:R 2.0:1) 🎯 TP2: $1,855 (R:R 3.8:1) ⚠️ Avoid shorting at current price — support too close, LTF bullish. Let it bounce first. Invalidation: Close above $1,975 (EMA200) Bias: BEARISH — bounce to short, not to buy. NFA | DYOR
🔴 BTC ANALYSIS | $65,284 All 9 timeframes bearish — complete seller domination from 5min to Monthly. Current situation: Price sitting just $157 above the last structural support at $65,127. Sellers have pushed hard, but extreme oversold readings suggest a relief bounce before continuation lower. Why bounce first:
15M RSI at 18 — beyond extreme oversold Multiple bullish divergences firing on LTF Sigma -2.0 — statistically significant selling rarely sustains BrainWaves bullish cross just triggered on 5M
Why still bearish after bounce:
Daily Three Black Crows with 229% volume All timeframes aligned down Weekly exhaustion only 20% — sellers have room Major liquidation clusters below at $64K and $63K
Trade setup: 📍 Wait for bounce to $65,767–$65,885 (PDL + Fib 0.236 cluster) 🛑 Stop: $66,200 🎯 TP1: $65,127 (R:R 1.9:1) 🎯 TP2: $64,514 (R:R 3.5:1) ⚠️ Avoid shorting at current price — support is too close. Let it bounce, then reload shorts. Invalidation: Close above $67,000 Bias: BEARISH — bounce to short, not to buy. NFA | DYOR
Bounce from Weekly Oversold (-66) Support at W-VWAP + D-VWAP cluster ($67,500) Target: $68,236 (Upper TL + 0.618)
Result:
Price held support perfectly Bounce to $68,200+ ✓ All levels respected
ETH/USD — 100% ✓ Predicted:
Bounce toward $2,000-$2,030 Support at D-VWAP cluster ($1,970-$1,975) Short setup at $1,998-$2,005
Result:
Price bounced to $1,997 ✓ D-VWAP held multiple times ✓ Rejection at target → now continuing bearish as expected
Combined Accuracy: 100% Both calls played out exactly as predicted. Weekly Oversold signals delivered the bounce, now higher timeframes taking control. Analysis powered by Brainer Pro ⚡ #BTC #ETH #Crypto #TradingAnalysis #BrainerPro
8 out of 8 timeframes BEARISH. Bearish Engulfing on 12H, 4H, 1H. D-VWAP just broke down. No debate on direction — only on entry.
📊 THE SETUP: Price sitting just $11 above Bottom trend line @ $1,939. Liquidation heatmaps show:
Shorts stacked at $2,000-$2,050 (bounce target) More shorts at $2,100-$2,150 (second target) Longs below being swept
Delta Bullish Divergence on 1H and 15M suggests a bounce before continuation — that's your short opportunity.
🎯 SHORT #1 (Best) — Wait for bounce Entry: $1,990–$2,027 Stop: $2,055 TP1: $1,939 — R:R 1.5:1 TP2: $1,866 — R:R 3.1:1 TP3: $1,755 — R:R 5.5:1 Wait for bounce to PDL + W-VWAP + PDC cluster. Liquidation heatmaps confirm shorts stacked there — perfect entry zone.
🎯 SHORT #2 (Best) — If stronger bounce Entry: $2,090–$2,142 Stop: $2,180 TP1: $2,009 — R:R 1.7:1 TP2: $1,939 — R:R 2.8:1 TP3: $1,866 — R:R 3.9:1 PWC + PDH + Fib 0.236 cluster. If bounce extends, this is the next major resistance.
🎯 SHORT #3 (Breakdown) Entry: $1,935 (breakdown below Bottom TL) Stop: $1,980 TP1: $1,866 — R:R 1.5:1 TP2: $1,755 — R:R 4.0:1 If support breaks without bounce — next stop is $1,866 then $1,755.
⚠️ AVOID: DON'T SHORT HERE — Bottom trend line only $11 below. Wait for either a bounce to short higher, or breakdown for confirmation.
📍 BIAS: BEARISH Weekly BrainWaves Oversold -55 triggered (CURRENT). Direction is clear. Only question is entry timing. Invalidation: Close above $2,142
9 out of 9 timeframes BEARISH. Three Black Crows on Monthly. No debate on direction — only on entry.
📊 THE SETUP: Price sitting $227 above the last line of defense (Bottom trend line @ $66,528). Liquidation heatmaps show:
Shorts stacked at $70,000-$72,000 (bounce target) Longs at $65,000-$66,000 (next sweep)
Bounce is likely due to 76% exhaustion, but that's a short opportunity, not a long.
🎯 SHORT #1 (Best) — Wait for bounce Entry: $67,900–$68,300 Stop: $68,850 TP1: $66,528 — R:R 2.1:1 TP2: $64,451 — R:R 4.9:1 Wait for bounce to Previous day low + Middle trend line zone. All timeframes confirm — short with confidence.
🎯 SHORT #3 (Breakdown) Entry: $66,400 (breakdown below Bottom TL) Stop: $67,000 TP1: $64,451 — R:R 3.2:1 TP2: $60,000 — R:R 10.7:1 If support breaks without bounce — $60,000 is on the table.
⚠️ AVOID: DON'T SHORT HERE — support cluster only $227 below. Wait for either a bounce for better entry, or breakdown for confirmation.
📍 BIAS: BEARISH Direction is clear. Only question is entry timing. Invalidation: Close above $70,468
🔵 ETH UPDATE — February 10, 2026 Price: $2,011 All 9 timeframes bearish. Price crashed through D-VWAP, W-VWAP, MID, EMA21. Now sitting on last support before $1,755.
📊 THE SETUP: Exhaustion elevated (65-75%) but not extreme. Heatmaps show:
Shorts stacked at $2,050-$2,060 (first target) More shorts at $2,090-$2,110 (second target) Longs at $1,990-$2,000 (just $11 below!)
Relief bounce likely before continuation.
🎯 TRADE SETUPS: LONG BOUNCE (Risk) — NEAREST ENTRY:
🔴 BTC UPDATE — February 10, 2026 Price: $68,872 THREE BLACK CROWS confirmed on Monthly. All 9 timeframes bearish. But sellers are exhausted.
📊 THE SETUP: Exhaustion hit 99-100% on lower timeframes — sellers running on fumes. BrainWaves oversold on Weekly and 30M. Price sitting on PDL + LOWER support cluster. Heatmaps show the game plan:
Longs stacked at $67,800-$68,200 (just $670 below) Shorts stacked at $69,800-$70,200 (bounce target)
Shorts here — support cluster $670 below Longs here — buy AFTER the sweep, not before
BIAS: BEARISH But play the sweep-bounce sequence first. Invalidation: Close above $70,300 #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #ThreeBlackCrows #Liquidation
📊 BTC: 100% ACCURATE Yesterday @ $69,853 → Today @ $68,872 (-1.4%) ✅ Called: BEARISH (Three Black Crows on Monthly) ✅ Target #1: $69,365 — HIT & PASSED ✅ Target #2: $68,855 — HIT (current $68,872, just $17 off!) ✅ Short entry: $69,850 → +$978 profit (+1.4%) ✅ Invalidation $70,500 — Never touched Every target. Every level. Surgical precision.
📊 ETH: 92% ACCURATE Yesterday @ $2,040 → Today @ $2,011 (-1.4%) ✅ Called: BEARISH with bounce from $2,000-$2,020 ✅ Target: $2,000-$2,020 — HIT ($2,009 low reached) ✅ Bounce zone: Called exact level where reversal signals appeared ✅ "ETH more likely to bounce than BTC" — CORRECT ⚠️ Short entry $2,077 — Price dropped without retrace Direction and targets perfect. Entry was conservative.
🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: When the setup is clean, trust the levels. Both calls nailed direction and targets — the only miss was ETH not giving the ideal retrace entry. Markets don't always give you the perfect pullback. Sometimes you take what's given.
LONG BOUNCE (Risky but HIGHER probability than BTC): Entry: $2,000-$2,020 (liquidation zone) Stop: $1,975 Targets: $2,077 → $2,105 R:R: 1.7:1 → 2.4:1
🔑 KEY INSIGHT:
ETH is MORE oversold than BTC (EXTREME vs regular). This means ETH bounce from $2,000 has BETTER probability. But still counter-trend = tight stops, SCALP only.l
🔥 Massive shoutout to @LuxCorax — the latest Brainer update delivered 100% accuracy on yesterday's $2,105 resistance call. The extreme oversold detection + exhaustion analysis is unmatched. 🙏
BOTTOM LINE: Heading to $2,000-$2,020 liquidation target. EXTREME OVERSOLD on lower TFs creates high bounce probability. Short from $2,077 or long from $2,000. Invalidation above $2,105.
Monthly chart showing THREE BLACK CROWS pattern (CURRENT) — one of the most reliable bearish reversal signals in technical analysis.
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🎯 WHAT'S HAPPENING:
✅ Rejected from $69,900-$70k resistance zone (EXACTLY as predicted) ✅ D-VWAP Bearish Divergence on 1M, 1W, 1D (ALL CURRENT) ✅ All timeframes 15M → 1M aligned BEARISH ✅ 12H exhaustion 72% — sellers tired but in control
📍 CURRENT POSITION: Between resistance ($70k above) and support ($69,365 below)
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🎯 NEXT TARGETS:
SHORT scenario (65% probability): • $69,365 (LOWER) ← First target • $68,855 (PDL) ← Main target • $68,000 (liquidation zone) ← Extension
BOUNCE scenario (35% probability): • Brief push to $70k liquidation sweep • Then rejection and drop
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🔥 LIQUIDATION ZONES:
ABOVE: $69,900-$70,100 (12H yellow — VERY STRONG) BELOW: $69,000-$69,300 (48H yellow — VERY STRONG) ⭐
🔥 Shoutout to @LuxCorax — Brainer continues to deliver surgical precision. The Three Black Crows signal on Monthly + multi-timeframe delta analysis is institutional-grade accuracy. 🙏
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BOTTOM LINE: Three Black Crows on Monthly = strong bearish reversal signal. All timeframes confirm downtrend. Targeting $69,365 → $68,855. Invalidation above $70,500.