橙子研究院
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2015 年入圈｜10年Crypto资深投资者｜擅长大趋势研判，主打中长线布局、波段锁利｜每周二、四20:30-21:30币安广场直播｜运用【缠论】体系，拆解加密市场趋势｜推特 X：@chengzi866｜币安 20 % 返佣邀请码：ZXZ4BNM3｜感谢关注，投资路上并肩前行！
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PINNED
BTC four-hour divergence structure appears; a big surge in BTC is about to come
On December 24, 2025, we clearly pointed out that BTC has exited the daily level bottom divergence, and after judging that the market has entered the rebound phase, we chose to get in directly near ETH 2950.
In the following half month, I posted multiple times firmly bullish on BTC, with the target range clearly pointing to 97000 USD (as shown in the figure below).
When BTC was running in the range of 97000–98000, I reminded again on January 7:
98000 USD is the key resistance level at Fibonacci 0.382 for BTC, caution is needed for pullback risks.
On January 14, when the price of ETH rose to around 3377 USD, I publicly posted to reduce 30% of the ETH position to lock in phase profits.
In the following half month, I posted multiple times firmly bullish on BTC, with the target range clearly pointing to 97000 USD (as shown in the figure below).
When BTC was running in the range of 97000–98000, I reminded again on January 7:
98000 USD is the key resistance level at Fibonacci 0.382 for BTC, caution is needed for pullback risks.
On January 14, when the price of ETH rose to around 3377 USD, I publicly posted to reduce 30% of the ETH position to lock in phase profits.
PINNED
Annual Line Long Upper Shadow Sets the Tone! Old Retail Investors Analyze Bitcoin's Two Major Bottom Ranges; the Bear Market is No Longer Just a Short-Term Correction
2025 has passed like this, Bitcoin shines brilliantly in 2025, creating new historical highs, but the vast majority of non-Bitcoin varieties are tragically bleak, with many old retail investors wiped out by the bull market. The market draws candlestick patterns in a state that is both familiar and unfamiliar, telling the story of the industry's maturity and transformation!
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
#BTC走势分析
Comprehensive structural judgment, currently high probability follows the blue segment for deduction, there is still space for rebound, but 86000–87000 is a key risk area. After reaching the target, do not blindly chase high prices, focus on observing changes in smaller level structures, and prioritize reducing position costs through T trading rather than increasing positions to gamble on direction. Live broadcast at 8:30 tonight, detailed breakdown of the current market situation and response ideas
#美国政府停摆 #ETH
Comprehensive structural judgment, currently high probability follows the blue segment for deduction, there is still space for rebound, but 86000–87000 is a key risk area. After reaching the target, do not blindly chase high prices, focus on observing changes in smaller level structures, and prioritize reducing position costs through T trading rather than increasing positions to gamble on direction. Live broadcast at 8:30 tonight, detailed breakdown of the current market situation and response ideas
#美国政府停摆 #ETH
橙子研究院
·
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【The market's sharp decline is not frightening; what is frightening is the lack of position control and the chaotic rhythm】
Affected by the simultaneous pullback of US stocks and gold last night, risk assets have overall experienced a significant pullback, leading to a synchronous decline in the cryptocurrency market, requiring adjustments to the short-term operational rhythm.
From the current structure, there are two possible paths:
1️⃣ If a strong rebound occurs at the current position, the rebound space can be viewed somewhat higher;
2️⃣ If the rebound momentum is insufficient, one needs to be cautious as there is still the possibility of further downward movement.
From a strategic perspective:
For positions with a relatively high initial entry cost, one can use the rebound process to perform T operations, gradually reducing the holding cost.
It is particularly important to note:
If the trend follows the blue segment's projection, when the price rebounds to around 86000 USD, the risk needs to be reassessed. Specific operations will be judged based on the small-scale structure at that time, and related ideas will be continuously updated in subsequent posts.
In terms of position management:
Despite the market experiencing a rapid pullback, overall position control remains relatively restrained, maintained at around 40-50%.
Just recently added about 20% at ETH 2742, currently controlling overall positions at 60-70%, and future adjustments will still be based on structural confirmations.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
Affected by the simultaneous pullback of US stocks and gold last night, risk assets have overall experienced a significant pullback, leading to a synchronous decline in the cryptocurrency market, requiring adjustments to the short-term operational rhythm.
From the current structure, there are two possible paths:
1️⃣ If a strong rebound occurs at the current position, the rebound space can be viewed somewhat higher;
2️⃣ If the rebound momentum is insufficient, one needs to be cautious as there is still the possibility of further downward movement.
From a strategic perspective:
For positions with a relatively high initial entry cost, one can use the rebound process to perform T operations, gradually reducing the holding cost.
It is particularly important to note:
If the trend follows the blue segment's projection, when the price rebounds to around 86000 USD, the risk needs to be reassessed. Specific operations will be judged based on the small-scale structure at that time, and related ideas will be continuously updated in subsequent posts.
In terms of position management:
Despite the market experiencing a rapid pullback, overall position control remains relatively restrained, maintained at around 40-50%.
Just recently added about 20% at ETH 2742, currently controlling overall positions at 60-70%, and future adjustments will still be based on structural confirmations.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
【Gold prices soared, but many didn't wait for wealth, instead they faced a crisis】
In the early stages, gold prices rose sharply,
many families chose "account gold" and "deferred payment" at high levels,
thinking it was the safest asset.
But soon, reality hit hard —
Silver dropped about 15% in the short term, gold retraced about 8%, and global financial markets plunged simultaneously.
Problems began to surface:
Some companies simply couldn't produce that much physical gold.
The reason is not complicated:
They were selling "gold price returns,"
but promised "physical gold that could be redeemed at any time."
When prices were rising, no one was eager to take delivery;
once prices fell from their highs,
everyone wanted to get their gold,
a run on the bank occurred.
A certain "Deep Water Shell" incident
erupted in this environment,
causing countless ordinary families to trust at high levels and face pressure at low levels, making things worse.
Remember this:
Just because it's called gold doesn't mean you actually own gold.
The real risk often appears after a sharp rise.
#金价再冲高位 #加密市场回调 #贵金属巨震 #代币化白银热潮
In the early stages, gold prices rose sharply,
many families chose "account gold" and "deferred payment" at high levels,
thinking it was the safest asset.
But soon, reality hit hard —
Silver dropped about 15% in the short term, gold retraced about 8%, and global financial markets plunged simultaneously.
Problems began to surface:
Some companies simply couldn't produce that much physical gold.
The reason is not complicated:
They were selling "gold price returns,"
but promised "physical gold that could be redeemed at any time."
When prices were rising, no one was eager to take delivery;
once prices fell from their highs,
everyone wanted to get their gold,
a run on the bank occurred.
A certain "Deep Water Shell" incident
erupted in this environment,
causing countless ordinary families to trust at high levels and face pressure at low levels, making things worse.
Remember this:
Just because it's called gold doesn't mean you actually own gold.
The real risk often appears after a sharp rise.
#金价再冲高位 #加密市场回调 #贵金属巨震 #代币化白银热潮
【KOL is holding positions, retail investors are facing liquidation, is the problem really the market?】
Recently, I watched a few KOL operations, some are holding positions, and I am too; while Xiao Z chose to cut losses directly. To be honest, his move can be seen as "going back to where it all began". There are always people in the market who think that as long as they open large positions and use 100x leverage, they can get rich quickly, but the reality is often — as long as you sit at the gambling table of contracts, once you get too carried away, the position could be wiped out completely. (As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2)
Because of this, I have always emphasized in the community: do not provide contract points, only do contract copying. The reason is simple, most people are ordinary retail investors, frankly speaking, they are just fodder, and it is very difficult to control emotions during extreme volatility; once emotions get out of control, position management basically goes out the window. Therefore, contracts have never been something ordinary people should play with casually; caution is essential.
Back to the present, will Xiao Z happen to cut losses at the bottom, and the market turns around and takes off🛫? No one can say for sure. But at least for me, my mindset is stable — overall position management is good, I won't get carried away, and there is no risk of liquidation.
The most feared thing in this market is emotional trading, especially during such a rapid decline phase, the more panic there is, the easier it is to completely disrupt the rhythm. I have repeatedly mentioned in previous live streams and posts: once a new low is reached and the direction is judged incorrectly, the optimal solution is not to stubbornly hold on or recklessly cut positions, but to respond through position management (as shown in Figure 3), gradually adding positions at low points to lower the overall holding cost.
From a structural perspective, this position itself is not bad, and the Binance community has already started to gradually get in (as shown in Figure 4). When the market gives opportunities, the ability to seize them relies not on courage but on discipline — do not let it go to waste.
#加密市场回调 $BTC #贵金属巨震 $ETH
Recently, I watched a few KOL operations, some are holding positions, and I am too; while Xiao Z chose to cut losses directly. To be honest, his move can be seen as "going back to where it all began". There are always people in the market who think that as long as they open large positions and use 100x leverage, they can get rich quickly, but the reality is often — as long as you sit at the gambling table of contracts, once you get too carried away, the position could be wiped out completely. (As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2)
Because of this, I have always emphasized in the community: do not provide contract points, only do contract copying. The reason is simple, most people are ordinary retail investors, frankly speaking, they are just fodder, and it is very difficult to control emotions during extreme volatility; once emotions get out of control, position management basically goes out the window. Therefore, contracts have never been something ordinary people should play with casually; caution is essential.
Back to the present, will Xiao Z happen to cut losses at the bottom, and the market turns around and takes off🛫? No one can say for sure. But at least for me, my mindset is stable — overall position management is good, I won't get carried away, and there is no risk of liquidation.
The most feared thing in this market is emotional trading, especially during such a rapid decline phase, the more panic there is, the easier it is to completely disrupt the rhythm. I have repeatedly mentioned in previous live streams and posts: once a new low is reached and the direction is judged incorrectly, the optimal solution is not to stubbornly hold on or recklessly cut positions, but to respond through position management (as shown in Figure 3), gradually adding positions at low points to lower the overall holding cost.
From a structural perspective, this position itself is not bad, and the Binance community has already started to gradually get in (as shown in Figure 4). When the market gives opportunities, the ability to seize them relies not on courage but on discipline — do not let it go to waste.
#加密市场回调 $BTC #贵金属巨震 $ETH
【The market's sharp decline is not frightening; what is frightening is the lack of position control and the chaotic rhythm】
Affected by the simultaneous pullback of US stocks and gold last night, risk assets have overall experienced a significant pullback, leading to a synchronous decline in the cryptocurrency market, requiring adjustments to the short-term operational rhythm.
From the current structure, there are two possible paths:
1️⃣ If a strong rebound occurs at the current position, the rebound space can be viewed somewhat higher;
2️⃣ If the rebound momentum is insufficient, one needs to be cautious as there is still the possibility of further downward movement.
From a strategic perspective:
For positions with a relatively high initial entry cost, one can use the rebound process to perform T operations, gradually reducing the holding cost.
It is particularly important to note:
If the trend follows the blue segment's projection, when the price rebounds to around 86000 USD, the risk needs to be reassessed. Specific operations will be judged based on the small-scale structure at that time, and related ideas will be continuously updated in subsequent posts.
In terms of position management:
Despite the market experiencing a rapid pullback, overall position control remains relatively restrained, maintained at around 40-50%.
Just recently added about 20% at ETH 2742, currently controlling overall positions at 60-70%, and future adjustments will still be based on structural confirmations.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
Affected by the simultaneous pullback of US stocks and gold last night, risk assets have overall experienced a significant pullback, leading to a synchronous decline in the cryptocurrency market, requiring adjustments to the short-term operational rhythm.
From the current structure, there are two possible paths:
1️⃣ If a strong rebound occurs at the current position, the rebound space can be viewed somewhat higher;
2️⃣ If the rebound momentum is insufficient, one needs to be cautious as there is still the possibility of further downward movement.
From a strategic perspective:
For positions with a relatively high initial entry cost, one can use the rebound process to perform T operations, gradually reducing the holding cost.
It is particularly important to note:
If the trend follows the blue segment's projection, when the price rebounds to around 86000 USD, the risk needs to be reassessed. Specific operations will be judged based on the small-scale structure at that time, and related ideas will be continuously updated in subsequent posts.
In terms of position management:
Despite the market experiencing a rapid pullback, overall position control remains relatively restrained, maintained at around 40-50%.
Just recently added about 20% at ETH 2742, currently controlling overall positions at 60-70%, and future adjustments will still be based on structural confirmations.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
【Gold and Silver Coin Markets Collapse Together: Only Those Who Survive Have the Right to Talk About a Comeback】
Today's market, saying "completely out of control" is not an exaggeration.
Gold fell about 7% in a single day, silver dropped nearly 8%, the Nasdaq retreated 2.6%, and our BTC and ETH also retreated around 6%.
This is no longer just a problem of one market, but a resonance decline across assets and markets.
At times like this, it's false to say it doesn't hurt.
Accounts are plummeting, emotions are being pulled back and forth, and many people may think:
"Who will save us?"
But after calming down, we must also admit one thing:
This is more like a small black swan, not a product of emotional loss of control, but a result of concentrated risk release.
From the perspective of positions, we have not been "pinned down" by the market.
Currently, the overall position is controlled at around 40-50%, close to half.
What does this mean?
It means that although this round of decline is painful, it is not a dead end; instead, it provides us with more room for better layouts in the future.
For that part of the position that is temporarily trapped, there is no need to rush to find worries.
A decline that is slow and repetitive is truly exhausting;
whereas this accelerated decline is actually releasing risk, cleaning up chips, and flushing out the emotions that should be let go in one go.
Of course, one point must be repeatedly emphasized:
Now is not the time to catch falling knives.
The speed of the decline is too fast, and the small-level structure has not yet slowed down,
any impulsive increase in positions is essentially using emotions to fight against the market.
The truly worthwhile time to consider adding positions will only appear after the small-level structure is complete and a second buy signal emerges.
So the only correct action at present is:
Be patient, let the market unfold, and let the bullets fly a little longer.
We stand together with all the brothers and sisters who are trapped.
No one laughs at your struggles because we are also enduring;
no one urges you to make decisions, because what is most valuable now is patience.
The market will provide answers,
but only to those—
who can withstand emotions, maintain positions, and wait for the structure to develop.
#BTC $BTC #黄金 $ETH
Today's market, saying "completely out of control" is not an exaggeration.
Gold fell about 7% in a single day, silver dropped nearly 8%, the Nasdaq retreated 2.6%, and our BTC and ETH also retreated around 6%.
This is no longer just a problem of one market, but a resonance decline across assets and markets.
At times like this, it's false to say it doesn't hurt.
Accounts are plummeting, emotions are being pulled back and forth, and many people may think:
"Who will save us?"
But after calming down, we must also admit one thing:
This is more like a small black swan, not a product of emotional loss of control, but a result of concentrated risk release.
From the perspective of positions, we have not been "pinned down" by the market.
Currently, the overall position is controlled at around 40-50%, close to half.
What does this mean?
It means that although this round of decline is painful, it is not a dead end; instead, it provides us with more room for better layouts in the future.
For that part of the position that is temporarily trapped, there is no need to rush to find worries.
A decline that is slow and repetitive is truly exhausting;
whereas this accelerated decline is actually releasing risk, cleaning up chips, and flushing out the emotions that should be let go in one go.
Of course, one point must be repeatedly emphasized:
Now is not the time to catch falling knives.
The speed of the decline is too fast, and the small-level structure has not yet slowed down,
any impulsive increase in positions is essentially using emotions to fight against the market.
The truly worthwhile time to consider adding positions will only appear after the small-level structure is complete and a second buy signal emerges.
So the only correct action at present is:
Be patient, let the market unfold, and let the bullets fly a little longer.
We stand together with all the brothers and sisters who are trapped.
No one laughs at your struggles because we are also enduring;
no one urges you to make decisions, because what is most valuable now is patience.
The market will provide answers,
but only to those—
who can withstand emotions, maintain positions, and wait for the structure to develop.
#BTC $BTC #黄金 $ETH
【87000 Long, 70000 Wait for Drop: This is not a contradiction, but a structure】
Starting from the structure of the theory, the current market response strategy can be divided into two parallel plans:
① Short Cycle (4H): Follow the structure for rebounds
Currently still operating in a secondary rebound phase, the short-term structural bias remains bullish.
Maintain half position participation, ready to attack or defend.
In terms of structural inference, there is still a possibility of a pullback confirmation at the 4-hour level, with a key focus on around 87000 USD:
• If the pullback is in place and completes structural confirmation, consider taking back the previously exited position;
• If there is no pullback and it goes up directly, since there is already a half position, there is no need to chase.
In terms of rebound space, the short-term high point is tentatively observed around 95000 USD, whether it extends will be determined based on the structure once the price is in place.
② Long Cycle (Weekly): The trend still leans bearish
The downward structure at the weekly level has not been broken, and the mid-to-long-term buying point has not yet appeared, with space calculations still pointing to around 70000 USD.
Therefore, all current participation can only be regarded as rebound trades within a downward trend, not suitable for long-term holding, and even less suitable for leveraging.
In summary:
Take small-level rebounds in line with the trend, while maintaining awareness of deeper drops at larger levels.
What matters now is execution ability, not faith.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
Starting from the structure of the theory, the current market response strategy can be divided into two parallel plans:
① Short Cycle (4H): Follow the structure for rebounds
Currently still operating in a secondary rebound phase, the short-term structural bias remains bullish.
Maintain half position participation, ready to attack or defend.
In terms of structural inference, there is still a possibility of a pullback confirmation at the 4-hour level, with a key focus on around 87000 USD:
• If the pullback is in place and completes structural confirmation, consider taking back the previously exited position;
• If there is no pullback and it goes up directly, since there is already a half position, there is no need to chase.
In terms of rebound space, the short-term high point is tentatively observed around 95000 USD, whether it extends will be determined based on the structure once the price is in place.
② Long Cycle (Weekly): The trend still leans bearish
The downward structure at the weekly level has not been broken, and the mid-to-long-term buying point has not yet appeared, with space calculations still pointing to around 70000 USD.
Therefore, all current participation can only be regarded as rebound trades within a downward trend, not suitable for long-term holding, and even less suitable for leveraging.
In summary:
Take small-level rebounds in line with the trend, while maintaining awareness of deeper drops at larger levels.
What matters now is execution ability, not faith.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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【The daily line is still falling, but BTC is about to surge to 95,000?】
The post from the day before yesterday indicated: On the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downward wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary level of rebound, corresponding to the "2 sell" rebound in the theory of cycles.
Currently, BTC's four-hour divergence has been signaled, the car door is open, and those who have already boarded should not jump off early.
$ETH #BTC走势分析
The post from the day before yesterday indicated: On the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downward wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary level of rebound, corresponding to the "2 sell" rebound in the theory of cycles.
Currently, BTC's four-hour divergence has been signaled, the car door is open, and those who have already boarded should not jump off early.
$ETH #BTC走势分析
【4 Hours Shouting Rebound, but the Weekly Chart Writes 'Danger': BTC is Showing Double Personality】
From the perspective of the Chan Theory: Structurally, the 4-hour level has started to provide opportunities. The current focus is on the second buy signal of the笔二 and the second buy signal of the内二, which are typical rebound segment signals—
but let’s be clear: this is a rebound wave, not a reversal wave, so manage your positions well, absolutely do not leverage, and don’t treat the rebound as a bull market.
When zooming out to the weekly chart, the conclusion remains unchanged:
The major trend is still in a downward structure, and the definitive buying points for the medium to long term have not yet appeared.
In other words, now is not the stage for “blindly ambushing,” but more like “patiently waiting for the prey to make a mistake.”
If you ask: Can we ambush BTC in advance?
The answer is just two words: wait.
Wait for the weekly structure to complete, wait for the real medium to long-term buying points to appear, and not to serve as fuel for the market during the rebound.
欢迎加入橙子🍊研究院二级市场聊天 Room
In summary:
Short-term can aim for a rebound, long-term must control hands.
When the market offers candy, don’t be too greedy; don’t rush to catch it before the knife hits the ground.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH
From the perspective of the Chan Theory: Structurally, the 4-hour level has started to provide opportunities. The current focus is on the second buy signal of the笔二 and the second buy signal of the内二, which are typical rebound segment signals—
but let’s be clear: this is a rebound wave, not a reversal wave, so manage your positions well, absolutely do not leverage, and don’t treat the rebound as a bull market.
When zooming out to the weekly chart, the conclusion remains unchanged:
The major trend is still in a downward structure, and the definitive buying points for the medium to long term have not yet appeared.
In other words, now is not the stage for “blindly ambushing,” but more like “patiently waiting for the prey to make a mistake.”
If you ask: Can we ambush BTC in advance?
The answer is just two words: wait.
Wait for the weekly structure to complete, wait for the real medium to long-term buying points to appear, and not to serve as fuel for the market during the rebound.
欢迎加入橙子🍊研究院二级市场聊天 Room
In summary:
Short-term can aim for a rebound, long-term must control hands.
When the market offers candy, don’t be too greedy; don’t rush to catch it before the knife hits the ground.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH
【It's not that BTC isn't rising, it's waiting for you to get off before it rises, continuing to look bullish at $95,000】
The trend hasn't really 'changed faces' in the past couple of days,
Overall, it still leans more towards the first type of movement from yesterday's classification, and this probability is not just talk; it's gradually increasing.
To put it simply:
👉 The big direction hasn't flipped the table, and the market hasn't played tricks.
From a structural perspective, the 4-hour upward wave is slowly gaining the upper hand. It's not a violent surge but more like —
If you don't chase it, it quietly climbs up; if you doubt it, it continues to show you.
So at this current stage, rather than being tangled up in 'Will it take off immediately?',
What's more important is: Don't get shaken out.
Currently, our contract following account has also performed well with bottom fishing, averaging down in batches at 2802 and 2855 (as shown in image 2), and we're currently making decent profits. Everyone is welcome to follow the contract, search for: Orange Research Institute Contract; the spot average down points are also good, with ETH entering at 2890 and 2850 (as shown in image 3)
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
The trend hasn't really 'changed faces' in the past couple of days,
Overall, it still leans more towards the first type of movement from yesterday's classification, and this probability is not just talk; it's gradually increasing.
To put it simply:
👉 The big direction hasn't flipped the table, and the market hasn't played tricks.
From a structural perspective, the 4-hour upward wave is slowly gaining the upper hand. It's not a violent surge but more like —
If you don't chase it, it quietly climbs up; if you doubt it, it continues to show you.
So at this current stage, rather than being tangled up in 'Will it take off immediately?',
What's more important is: Don't get shaken out.
Currently, our contract following account has also performed well with bottom fishing, averaging down in batches at 2802 and 2855 (as shown in image 2), and we're currently making decent profits. Everyone is welcome to follow the contract, search for: Orange Research Institute Contract; the spot average down points are also good, with ETH entering at 2890 and 2850 (as shown in image 3)
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
【The daily line is still falling, but BTC is about to surge to 95,000?】
The post from the day before yesterday indicated: On the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downward wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary level of rebound, corresponding to the "2 sell" rebound in the theory of cycles.
Currently, BTC's four-hour divergence has been signaled, the car door is open, and those who have already boarded should not jump off early.
$ETH #BTC走势分析
The post from the day before yesterday indicated: On the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downward wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary level of rebound, corresponding to the "2 sell" rebound in the theory of cycles.
Currently, BTC's four-hour divergence has been signaled, the car door is open, and those who have already boarded should not jump off early.
$ETH #BTC走势分析
【TSLA Launching Binance Perpetual Contract, What Does It Mean?】
Summary in One Sentence:
Binance is not 'launching a new contract', but is bringing US stocks into the crypto financial system.
⸻
1️⃣ What is the essence?
TSLAUSDT Perpetual ≠ Buying Stocks
It's a derivative that trades Tesla's price fluctuations 24/7 using USDT,
without a US stock account, no trading time restrictions, and can be leveraged.
👉 Stock prices have entered the perpetual system of the crypto world.
⸻
2️⃣ What does it mean for the market?
This is a signal of the times:
• Crypto exchanges are becoming the global entry point for derivatives
• The crypto world no longer only trades BTC, ETH, but also accommodates traditional asset fluctuations
• In the future, it won't just be TSLA; tech stocks, indices, and ETFs may also enter
Essence: The crypto market is undergoing 'financialization upgrade', not just speculating on new narratives.
⸻
3️⃣ Is it a boon or a risk for retail investors?
A double-edged sword.
Benefits:
• Extremely low threshold, you can participate with 5 USDT
• Round-the-clock trading, efficiency surpassing US stocks
• Familiar perpetual contract gameplay
Risks:
• You are trading 'prices', not 'companies'
• Leverage + 24/7 = Risk amplifier
• News and funding rates will continuously eat into your profits
👉 More suitable for those who understand risk management, not for those who blindly go long or short.
⸻
4️⃣ How should seasoned investors view this?
In 2017 we bet on trends,
In 2021 we bet on narratives,
Now we need to learn to bet on structure and arbitrage.
The significance of TSLA Perpetual is not about 'can it make money',
but rather:
The crypto world is becoming an extension layer of traditional finance, not an opposition.
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5️⃣ Conclusion in one sentence
TSLA Perpetual is not a bull market signal,
it is a milestone marking the official entry of the crypto market into the 'global financial derivatives era'.
#特斯拉 #TSLA $BTC
Summary in One Sentence:
Binance is not 'launching a new contract', but is bringing US stocks into the crypto financial system.
⸻
1️⃣ What is the essence?
TSLAUSDT Perpetual ≠ Buying Stocks
It's a derivative that trades Tesla's price fluctuations 24/7 using USDT,
without a US stock account, no trading time restrictions, and can be leveraged.
👉 Stock prices have entered the perpetual system of the crypto world.
⸻
2️⃣ What does it mean for the market?
This is a signal of the times:
• Crypto exchanges are becoming the global entry point for derivatives
• The crypto world no longer only trades BTC, ETH, but also accommodates traditional asset fluctuations
• In the future, it won't just be TSLA; tech stocks, indices, and ETFs may also enter
Essence: The crypto market is undergoing 'financialization upgrade', not just speculating on new narratives.
⸻
3️⃣ Is it a boon or a risk for retail investors?
A double-edged sword.
Benefits:
• Extremely low threshold, you can participate with 5 USDT
• Round-the-clock trading, efficiency surpassing US stocks
• Familiar perpetual contract gameplay
Risks:
• You are trading 'prices', not 'companies'
• Leverage + 24/7 = Risk amplifier
• News and funding rates will continuously eat into your profits
👉 More suitable for those who understand risk management, not for those who blindly go long or short.
⸻
4️⃣ How should seasoned investors view this?
In 2017 we bet on trends,
In 2021 we bet on narratives,
Now we need to learn to bet on structure and arbitrage.
The significance of TSLA Perpetual is not about 'can it make money',
but rather:
The crypto world is becoming an extension layer of traditional finance, not an opposition.
⸻
5️⃣ Conclusion in one sentence
TSLA Perpetual is not a bull market signal,
it is a milestone marking the official entry of the crypto market into the 'global financial derivatives era'.
#特斯拉 #TSLA $BTC
Not the next hundredfold coin, but the next track to be locked by institutions for ten years
1. Core Market Tone: Say goodbye to the myth of cycles and enter the industrialization stage
The biggest change in the crypto market in 2026 is the end of the era of speculative retail investors and narrative-driven boom and bust cycles. Instead, we are entering an 'industrialization stage' dominated by institutional funds, with a clear regulatory framework and driven by technological implementation—similar to the internet in 1996, not the eve of a bubble, but the beginning of true technology permeating business. Institutional funds are no longer focused on short-term arbitrage but are treating crypto assets as a long-term allocation to hedge against currency depreciation and fiscal deficits, which will slow down market volatility (Bitwise predicts Bitcoin's volatility may be lower than Nvidia's), but structural opportunities will become more concentrated.
The biggest change in the crypto market in 2026 is the end of the era of speculative retail investors and narrative-driven boom and bust cycles. Instead, we are entering an 'industrialization stage' dominated by institutional funds, with a clear regulatory framework and driven by technological implementation—similar to the internet in 1996, not the eve of a bubble, but the beginning of true technology permeating business. Institutional funds are no longer focused on short-term arbitrage but are treating crypto assets as a long-term allocation to hedge against currency depreciation and fiscal deficits, which will slow down market volatility (Bitwise predicts Bitcoin's volatility may be lower than Nvidia's), but structural opportunities will become more concentrated.
【4 hours is not strong, but the market is quietly gathering strength】
From the current structure, the 4-hour level cannot be regarded as a strong bullish rebound, and the bullish momentum remains weak. Therefore, the main focus will be on two evolutionary paths:
First situation:
The price retraces on the current 4-hour level but does not create a new low, thus forming a new secondary buying structure. The market is expected to continue in line with this, continuing the upward wave at the 4-hour level.
Second situation:
The 4-hour level again dips and refreshes the previous low, which is the downward structure extension mentioned in the previous live broadcast. However, it is important to note that even if a downward extension occurs, the subsequent focus will still be on the upward wave at the 4-hour level as the main direction.
Operation situation: partial position for T trading, leaving a portion of the position
#BTC走势分析 $ETH $BTC
From the current structure, the 4-hour level cannot be regarded as a strong bullish rebound, and the bullish momentum remains weak. Therefore, the main focus will be on two evolutionary paths:
First situation:
The price retraces on the current 4-hour level but does not create a new low, thus forming a new secondary buying structure. The market is expected to continue in line with this, continuing the upward wave at the 4-hour level.
Second situation:
The 4-hour level again dips and refreshes the previous low, which is the downward structure extension mentioned in the previous live broadcast. However, it is important to note that even if a downward extension occurs, the subsequent focus will still be on the upward wave at the 4-hour level as the main direction.
Operation situation: partial position for T trading, leaving a portion of the position
#BTC走势分析 $ETH $BTC
【Silver has gone completely crazy this month with a 60%+ increase, while ETH remains stagnant: It turns out I bought an 'emotion-stabilizing coin'】
Has silver really gone completely insane?
A 10% increase in one day, almost 60%+ in a month; as a veteran from 2017 in the crypto space, I can't make sense of it.
Gold and silver are hitting new highs every day, yet my ETH feels like it's welded to the floor—truly, everything is rising except for my coin 😭
But if you think about it calmly, the logic isn't complicated:
This surge in gold and silver is fundamentally not about being bullish on the economy, but rather bearish on the future.
High global debt + expectations of interest rate cuts + recurring geopolitical conflicts mean that money is avoiding risk assets and must flow into hard inflation hedges.
Gold is a safe haven, silver has safe haven + industrial properties + lower liquidity, and when it starts to flow, it skyrockets.
As for ETH?
I can only say—the narrative hasn't reached it yet.
Veterans know: it's not that it's not coming, it's just still on the road.
Stay alive first, don't get shaken off the ride.
$ETH #黄金 #Silver
Has silver really gone completely insane?
A 10% increase in one day, almost 60%+ in a month; as a veteran from 2017 in the crypto space, I can't make sense of it.
Gold and silver are hitting new highs every day, yet my ETH feels like it's welded to the floor—truly, everything is rising except for my coin 😭
But if you think about it calmly, the logic isn't complicated:
This surge in gold and silver is fundamentally not about being bullish on the economy, but rather bearish on the future.
High global debt + expectations of interest rate cuts + recurring geopolitical conflicts mean that money is avoiding risk assets and must flow into hard inflation hedges.
Gold is a safe haven, silver has safe haven + industrial properties + lower liquidity, and when it starts to flow, it skyrockets.
As for ETH?
I can only say—the narrative hasn't reached it yet.
Veterans know: it's not that it's not coming, it's just still on the road.
Stay alive first, don't get shaken off the ride.
$ETH #黄金 #Silver
【The daily line is still falling, but BTC is about to surge to 95,000?】
The post from the day before yesterday indicated: On the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downward wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary level of rebound, corresponding to the "2 sell" rebound in the theory of cycles.
Currently, BTC's four-hour divergence has been signaled, the car door is open, and those who have already boarded should not jump off early.
$ETH #BTC走势分析
The post from the day before yesterday indicated: On the daily level, the overall trend is still running in the downward wave indicated by the red segment, and the trend has not completely reversed. However, in the short-term structure, there is a secondary level of rebound, corresponding to the "2 sell" rebound in the theory of cycles.
Currently, BTC's four-hour divergence has been signaled, the car door is open, and those who have already boarded should not jump off early.
$ETH #BTC走势分析
橙子研究院
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BTC four-hour divergence structure appears; a big surge in BTC is about to come
On December 24, 2025, we clearly pointed out that BTC has exited the daily level bottom divergence, and after judging that the market has entered the rebound phase, we chose to get in directly near ETH 2950.
In the following half month, I posted multiple times firmly bullish on BTC, with the target range clearly pointing to 97000 USD (as shown in the figure below).
When BTC was running in the range of 97000–98000, I reminded again on January 7:
98000 USD is the key resistance level at Fibonacci 0.382 for BTC, caution is needed for pullback risks.
On January 14, when the price of ETH rose to around 3377 USD, I publicly posted to reduce 30% of the ETH position to lock in phase profits.
In the following half month, I posted multiple times firmly bullish on BTC, with the target range clearly pointing to 97000 USD (as shown in the figure below).
When BTC was running in the range of 97000–98000, I reminded again on January 7:
98000 USD is the key resistance level at Fibonacci 0.382 for BTC, caution is needed for pullback risks.
On January 14, when the price of ETH rose to around 3377 USD, I publicly posted to reduce 30% of the ETH position to lock in phase profits.
Gold hits a new historical high,
bride price directly follows the trend of bulk commodities.
BTC 90,000 USD,
digital gold only allows me to look at the K-line.
Reality tells me one truth:
whether it's physical gold or digital gold,
I am not the target customer.
So the conclusion is very clear——
single dog 🐶 bag,
is currently my lowest risk, least drawdown strategy 😂
#黄金 $BTC #BTC
bride price directly follows the trend of bulk commodities.
BTC 90,000 USD,
digital gold only allows me to look at the K-line.
Reality tells me one truth:
whether it's physical gold or digital gold,
I am not the target customer.
So the conclusion is very clear——
single dog 🐶 bag,
is currently my lowest risk, least drawdown strategy 😂
#黄金 $BTC #BTC
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