加密大队长

$BTC In the past few days, the entire cryptocurrency market has felt like the "sky is falling," with a drastic decline that has left many new and old players dumbfounded. Bitcoin has led the plunge, and mainstream coins along with altcoins have dropped to alarming levels. Let's break down this market trend in plain language, examining what has happened, why the decline is so severe, and how to view the future. 1. How bad has Bitcoin dropped? Current price: It has completely fallen below $70,000, hitting a low of just over $60,000, roughly within the $60,000~$61,000 range. How severe is the drop? In the past 24 hours, it has dropped by 10%-15%, with some periods being even more exaggerated. From the high point last October (which surged above $100,000) to now, Bitcoin has dropped by 40%-50%. In simple terms, this is a classic "bear market decline." From a technical perspective: there is a key support level around $58,000~$60,000, which is the position of the 200-day moving average, and many consider it the "bottom line." If it breaks this level, there may be a search for further support below. The RSI indicator has dropped to a historically rare low, a situation that has only occurred twice in the past. Some seasoned investors believe it might be a precursor to a "violent rebound," but the pressure remains significant. 2. Why has it dropped like this? This round of plummeting is not accidental; there are several obvious driving forces behind it: 1️⃣ The world is selling risk assets. It’s not just the cryptocurrency market; tech stocks have also been crashing recently, U.S. Treasury yields are rising sharply, and with macro liquidity tightening, there is less and less money in the market. Investors are panicking, selling off both stocks and cryptocurrencies to preserve their capital, which has caused this panic to spread directly to the crypto market. 2️⃣ Continuous liquidations, blood flowing like rivers. In the past few days, the total liquidation amount across the network has exceeded $600-$800 million multiple times, and almost all of it has been long positions (meaning bullish positions were buried). The worst affected has been MicroStrategy, the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin globally, which recorded a massive loss of about $12.4 billion in Q4 due to the Bitcoin crash, leading to a drop in its stock price that further exacerbated market panic. It is reported that by the end of 2024, this company holds about 446,400 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of about $62,428. Now its stock price has almost returned to its original form, resulting in an astonishing unrealized loss. 3️⃣ Unclear policies, no one to rescue the market. The uncertainty of regulatory policies has become the "last straw" that broke the market's back. Recently, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen stated clearly that the U.S. government has no power to rescue cryptocurrencies and will not intervene to provide assistance. Additionally, rumors of the EU and the U.S. tightening cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks have been circulating, causing fear that once regulation comes in, the value of the coins in hand will disappear, leading to frantic sell-offs. 4️⃣ Other black swan events. Other external factors have added fuel to the fire. For example, geopolitical tensions and instability in the Middle East, combined with thin market liquidity over the weekend, have amplified the declines with small sell-offs, causing the already fragile cryptocurrency market to drop even harder. 3. Other coins are also finding it hard to escape the calamity. Ethereum (ETH): has dropped alongside Bitcoin, briefly falling below $2,000, and some large holders (whales) may face "liquidation" crises. Founder Vitalik has publicly criticized some Layer 2 projects as being too "watered down," and he expressed disbelief over the Meme coins related to Trump crashing. Solana and other public chain coins: have experienced even larger declines than BTC, with SOL nearly breaking its support level. From the overall market perspective, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies has significantly evaporated from last year's peak, with reports stating that the total market cap has nearly halved in recent months. Although some institutions are still net buying Bitcoin via ETFs, the demand for spot purchases from ordinary investors has clearly dried up, and no one dares to easily enter the market to buy the dip, causing market activity to plummet to an extreme low. Analysts have pointed out that the ETF capital inflows that previously supported Bitcoin prices have also noticeably slowed down, even experiencing net outflows, which undoubtedly adds to the market's woes. 4. What are people in the crypto space saying? Opening X reveals a scene of despair: some are crying while others are laughing, and emotions are completely split. Many investors are calling it "blood flowing like rivers" and declaring, "the bear market has really come." Several are sharing screenshots of their bottom-buying attempts, complaining that they bought in halfway down the slope, losing more the more they added to their positions; some even went bust, losing their capital overnight and stating, "I will never touch crypto again." Others jokingly referred to it as "the universal celebration of the slaughter of dog coins," with a screen full of loss complaints. On the other hand, a few analysts and "old coin believers" are calling for a rebound: they claim Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10% from its recent low, with short-term rebound targets looking at $68,000-$74,500. However, they repeatedly remind that whether the rebound can succeed depends on the volume-price relationship; without capital entering, a rebound is merely a "flash in the pan" and likely just a trap to lure in buyers. Some who believe in "contrarian investing" are shouting to "buy when blood flows like rivers," but this voice is quickly drowned out by panic-driven complaints. Summary: Emotions are extremely polarized—some self-deprecatingly say, "the dogs of the crypto world have all been cut down," while others insist, "when others are fearful, I am greedy," preparing to buy the dip amidst the chaos. To be honest, this wave of decline is fierce, not a simple technical adjustment, but a "multiple blow" under macroeconomic conditions, emotional collapse, and policy pressure. For most ordinary investors, what is most taboo now is "blindly buying the dip," because what you think is the bottom may just be halfway down the slope. However, if you are optimistic about this industry in the long run and can tolerate volatility, then this is indeed a window period to observe quality projects and gradually lay out. After all, after every deep decline, there often lies the next opportunity. Conclusion: This wave of market trend reminds us once again: one day in the crypto world is like a year in the human world. Prices rise quickly and fall even faster. Don’t easily go all in, and don’t use excessively high leverage. The most important thing right now is to control risk and see the direction clearly before taking action. Stay steady, don’t panic, and don’t leave the table, so you have a chance to see the next round of turnaround. Lastly, a reminder: the cryptocurrency market is currently in a bear market correction phase, and panic emotions have not completely dissipated. Whether buying the dip or chasing rebounds, the risks are extremely high. Moreover, cryptocurrency trading is not protected by law in our country; there have been warnings from multiple parties about the risks of virtual currency trading and speculation. Everyone must be cautious and not be blinded by temporary fluctuations; preserving your capital is the most important thing. Rationally view cryptocurrency investments and avoid following the crowd blindly.

Long and short positions are repeatedly strangled within a narrow range; the failure of either side could lead to a waterfall or a surge.
Currently, the price of Bitcoin is caught in a suffocating silence. As of now, the BTC/USDT perpetual contract price is hovering around 76204.6, with a daily volatility of only 0.37%. This market is very oppressive and painful, with no fluctuations at the moment.

But beneath this calm, technical indicators are sending conflicting signals. From the candlestick chart you provided, today's opening price is 76082.0, and it dipped to a low of 76025.6—this position is exactly the support area of the BOLL middle band (76047.7).

The hotspots of the next decade are AI and Bitcoin
How much would your 1 million asset from 10 years ago be worth now?
1. bought Bitcoin: now it's 2.624 billion 2. bought Tesla: now it's 120 million 3. bought Apple: now it's 98 million 4. bought BYD: now it's 60 million 5. bought Xiaomi: now it's 15 million
6. bought the NASDAQ 100: now it's 4.427 million. bought Tencent: now it's 4 million 8. bought gold: now it's 3.25 million
9. bought the S&P 500: now it's 2.69 million
10. bought silver: now it's over 2 million
11 bought government bonds: now it's 1.4 million

$BTC MicroStrategy: A 'Dangerous Game' Betting the Company's Fate on Bitcoin

Recently, MicroStrategy has been trending, with many predicting it to be the biggest risk. MicroStrategy holds 710,000 bitcoins. You may have heard of people mortgaging their houses to invest in stocks, but have you ever imagined a publicly traded company betting its entire fate on a digital asset—Bitcoin? This is not a movie plot; it is a real business story unfolding before our eyes. The protagonist is an American company called 'MicroStrategy,' which is conducting the boldest and most dangerous experiment in business history.

Seeing this market situation makes my heart ache very much; perhaps most people feel the same as I do. In this round, we embraced crypto, but we faced a cold reality, with liquidations happening everywhere, wealth halved and halved again. Even if crypto tortures me a thousand times, we have never given up on this industry. Of course, I have thought about it many times, but in the end, I still persevered. Perhaps it is fate; it is tangled and complicated. Since it cannot be cut off, let's walk together well. Crypto is like a strong sword; if we cannot resist, let's enjoy it well.
This market situation is really a tasteless situation; it is neither enjoyable nor worth discarding. The risks of trying to catch the bottom are many, but if you don't try, you fear missing out. The clever captain chose to hold a small amount of cash at the bottom. From the start, I liked to buy various coins, afraid of missing each one. At that time, I felt like every coin could be a tenfold or hundredfold return. Oh dear, now I don't dare to buy any coins, fearing that buying the wrong one will turn a motorcycle into a bicycle. In the past, our slogan was to gamble on turning a bicycle into a motorcycle. What has made the once fantasizing me become more pragmatic? Haha, what a painful realization. Nowadays, stability is greater than everything else. The coins the captain prioritizes are getting fewer: btc, eth, bnb, doge, sol, xrp. These six coins are enough for us to play with, and the risks are slightly smaller, unlike the altcoins that drop 90% in this wave! In this market situation, I really don't want to open the software anymore. Seeing the losses and the red list is really frustrating. Haha.