张烁峰的剧本日记

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#加密市场观察

Market Analysis | 2026.02.27

Has the rebound of ETH ended? Is the US and Iran going to war? Is cryptocurrency about to crash? Let me see who else is scared 🧐

Next, let's look at the daily closing at 8 AM tomorrow: If it closes above the indicated red support zone, we do not assume the rebound has ended.

Currently, the downturn is more likely an adjustment rather than a new downward trend. If we find the adjustment endpoint in the next two days and see a quick V-shaped rebound, ETH will follow the blue route.

If it stops falling in the red zone, but the subsequent movement is just oscillation without a strong upward push, then the subsequent rise will be limited (red route).

In trading, the most fearful thing is being disturbed by some news/message.
If it hasn't broken, it hasn't broken; if it breaks, then we look to see if it's a real break or a false break, adjusting strategies based on the market.

Respect the objective candlestick facts; those who are led by emotions will ultimately only be a part of that 80% in the 28 law. #ETH走势分析

Regarding the issue of eating meat, Old Zhang will not let my brothers and sisters miss out on #BTC走势分析

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Don't hit anymore

If you keep hitting, you'll hit my take profit level😂😂😂
While you guys are guessing whether to hit or not
Our group has already entered short positions
After joining the group, my friends enjoy their meals more and sleep better
Only I have been fighting day and night #BTC走势分析

The real bear market of $BTC has only gone through two rounds

Each round lasted a year, with a decline of 75-80%

Will this time be different? Or will it be the same as always? #BTC走势分析

Gann timing accurately captures the adjustment endpoint 62500 $BTC Can it break the previous high again? 2026.02.27

In the video on February 22, it was mentioned that the Gann time window appeared on 2.24, and after reaching an adjustment endpoint, BTC indeed dropped to 625 briefly on 2.24 before rebounding. Yesterday, it peaked at nearly 70,000 before retreating. How should we view the next steps? Can it break the previous high?

The subsequent trend of BTC is shown in the chart:

The operational rhythm is relatively fast (red route), and the adjustment for the rise from 625 to 70,000 concluded at 665 last night, with BTC expected to quickly break through 722.

However, considering that today is Friday, if it cannot break through 70,000 tonight, there is a possibility of taking the blue route: mainly fluctuating over the weekend, leading to a complex adjustment structure, and then pushing up again next week.

As long as the 4-hour K chart for BTC does not fall below the illustrated support zone, we should not easily assume that the rise starting from 625 has ended—breaking the previous high is merely a matter of whether it is early or late.

Which route do you think has a higher probability, brothers? Let's discuss in the comments #BTC走势分析

Er Gouzi Market Analysis 2026.02.26

Er Gouzi rebounded after falling to 1800 on February 24 in the Gann time, achieving a 19% increase in 32 hours! For a large-cap asset like Er Gouzi, this is simply an elephant dancing; the power of the key time window in Gann theory is once again astonishing!

Currently, I maintain the viewpoint from the 2.22 video, that the rise starting from 1800 is of the same level as the rise from 1747-2152. The two waves of increase and the subsequent adjustment lasting 15 days together constitute the entire rebound. The subsequent trends in smaller time frames show two possible scenarios:

Red: Er Gouzi effectively breaks through the blue range. Even if it cannot break through, the subsequent adjustment will take the form of high-level fluctuations. After weekend consolidation, it will break upwards next week to test the resistance of the red range. Once the peak is found, Er Gouzi will end the entire rebound that started on February 6 and continue to fall.

Blue: After Er Gouzi rises to the blue range, if it faces significant resistance and experiences a sharp pullback, then under this route, we assume that Er Gouzi's rebound ends prematurely. Because it only needs to break through 2152, the entire rebound of Er Gouzi could end, while the subsequent continuous pullback or a second upward test of the blue range without a breakthrough will increase the likelihood of following this route.

At the beginning of this month, when Er Gouzi fell below 1800, I reminded everyone not to panic excessively and definitely not to chase shorts, as a rebound is about to begin. Those who listened to the advice either benefited from this rebound or at least avoided being caught in a floor short.

For this wave of Er Gouzi, I hope it can take off more than anyone else because both my friends in the group and I have long positions and spot holdings. The higher it rises, the happier I am. However, in trading, the most taboo is to indulge in wishful thinking about the market. In the next two weeks, if there are any signs of a peak on the daily chart, I will consider reducing my long positions and preparing to capture subsequent short positions.

Whether it's a bull or bear market really isn't that important.

If you want to find a tricky angle to argue whether it's a bull or bear market now, you can definitely find it: technical analysis, on-chain data, macro narratives—just pick any.

But to be honest, do these things really affect your next trade? Not much.

What truly determines whether you can profit from your next trade or the next few trades are always those four things:

Have we reached the key levels? Are there any signals? How do you manage your mindset? How much position size to push.

If you manage these four points well, the market will naturally pay you.

It's much more reliable than believing in a 'big picture perspective.'

$DOGE Grabbed? Caught the strongest one! Let's go #DOGE冲冲冲

#XAUUSD Gold Market Analysis 2/25

Gold has already crossed the important resistance level of 5140, which means the historical high of 5597 will not be a long-term peak, but rather a medium to short-term peak, with higher highs to come.

Now, gold is clearly in a range-bound market, with a range of 4401-5597, which will last for several months or even half a year. After the consolidation, it will break through the historical high.

In the short term, 5100 is an important watershed; if it goes above this level, it will continue to rebound.
If it breaks 5250, then we need to be cautious of a pullback risk.
If it falls below 5100, a pullback will begin, with support below at 4995-5045.

Market Analysis 2026.02.25

The viewpoint from the video on February 22 has never changed—if BTC is going to push up again, then February 24 and 25 are the last times. All the tweets updated this week also follow the ideas mentioned in the video: insiders know the tricks, outsiders just watch the excitement, and retail investors only look at the arrows.

Last night BTC reached the blue range mentioned in yesterday's tweet and reversed. This morning it rose to a high of 66310, and it is currently in a correction. Today's market for BTC is very crucial, and the possible subsequent trends are shown in the following diagram:

Blue Route: The last wave of rebound that everyone has been waiting for has arrived as expected. If it goes quickly, this week will close the weekly line; if slowly, it is very likely that it will end the last wave of rebound by next week at the latest, after which BTC will continue to decline (as shown in the 2-day chart, BTC is still in a major downtrend).

Red Route: The rise from 62500 has no sustainability, it is merely a small-level rebound, and BTC is already in a downtrend. Pay attention to the 64700 line below; if the four-hour K entity breaks this line, it will increase the probability of the red route. A break below 62500 significantly increases the likelihood of this trend.

Last night I mentioned that the only question here is whether there will be another wave of rebound. On a broader level, it is undoubted that BTC is still in a downtrend. I see many brothers doubting this statement, even cursing and attacking me. I can actually understand it; it has dropped all the way down from 126000, and everyone hopes the decline has ended and a V-reversal has started, but in trading, one must respect objective facts and not indulge in fantasies.

#BTC走势分析

Is this the charm of Gann time?
$BTC $ETH It seemed to be about to break down yesterday, but ultimately it held at the extreme time and rebounded. The trading strategy was shared in the community promptly last night.

Of course, if you seriously looked at my tweets, you would have seen signs of a bottom around the time period of 2.24-2.25 and could have benefited from this wave of increase.

Friends who want to improve their trading skills and hope to get my views on the market in a timely manner can message me. Friends who are confident in their trading abilities will also benefit greatly just by following my tweet updates.

The update on my market view will come at noon, but to briefly mention—this is likely a rebound at the same level as 60000-72000, and after the rebound finds its peak, it will continue to decline as the larger trend of BTC and ETH is still downward.
#btc

$ETH Market Analysis 2026.02.24

After ETH fell to 2623 on November 20, 2025, I tweeted that there would be a rebound, but it would only be a rebound because ETH is in a downtrend. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline. (The black segments shown in the chart represent the first segment of the decline and its corresponding rebound.) The overall market performance of ETH since November 20, 2025, has met expectations.

There are two possibilities for the decline that started at 4956. The first is that the overall structure is a simple three-wave structure—decline + rebound + decline. The blue route under this scenario represents all of ETH's declines, where the decline starting from 3447 is the last segment of the decline. After this completes, ETH will end its downtrend and at least have a rebound at the same level as the blue line, which can last for a quarter.

The second possibility is that the decline from 4956 is not a simple three-wave structure, as shown by the red route in the chart. After ETH finds a temporary low point in mid to late March, it will only execute a rebound targeting this red segment of the decline. After the rebound ends, ETH will continue to decline, and under this scenario, the overall downtrend of ETH may continue until the end of 2026 or even early 2027.

Yesterday afternoon, I called a short position in the group, but it didn't drop directly at that moment. Instead, it went up with a large bullish candle.

At that time, the friends in the group were very anxious, asking whether to cut losses or open a long hedge.

But I firmly told them to wait until the evening to see, not to rush.
The fact is that I was right; it successfully dropped in the evening, and I took profit.

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.02.24

Since BTC dropped to 60,000 on February 6 and rebounded, I define the rise from 60,000 as a rebound. In a larger context, it is still in a downtrend, and BTC may end its half-month oscillation this week.

Continuing with the previous thoughts, BTC's recent trend has two possible scenarios as illustrated:

Red: The sharp rebound from 60,000 ends in a sideways consolidation at 72,200 as the peak of the rebound, and the subsequent half-month of sideways movement has digested the upward momentum that should have appeared. If this happens, BTC is already in a downtrend, and if it drops to the illustrated range in mid to late March and finds support, it is expected to end the sustained downtrend that began at 97,900. After this downtrend ends, there will be a rebound of the same magnitude.

Blue: After quickly rising from the illustrated blue area and finding support, it is at the same level as the rise from 60,000 to 72,200. BTC's recent trend is weak, but as long as it does not break below the previous low of 60,000, this scenario cannot be ruled out. If this route is to be taken, then the next few days are the last chance; if it cannot rise or breaks below 60,000, the possibility of this trend will be excluded.

$ETH Market Analysis 2026.02.23

The video on 2.22 mentioned that February 24 and 25 are important Gann times, which may be the turning point for ETH. The current time is approaching, and after a drop this morning, ETH has temporarily stopped falling. What will happen next?

Possible future trends for ETH are shown in the figure below.

Red route: The rebound of ETH has not yet ended. If the adjustment in the red box is completed before 2.25 without breaking the previous low, ETH will rise again after the adjustment, dropping to the stage bottom around mid to late March after completing all rebounds starting from 1747.8.

Blue route: If ETH still shows no signs of stopping after 2.25, its rebound may end in a form of horizontal consolidation, with the structure not being obvious. Subsequently, ETH will drop to the stage bottom around mid to late March.

The difference between the two is whether the rebound from 1747.8 has already ended. The common point is that after confirming the recent rebound endpoint, ETH will continue to fall. From a larger perspective, 1747.8 cannot serve as a bottom.

In the next two days, it is important to observe whether ETH shows signs of stopping at key positions, and whether the upward momentum and volume after stopping correspond. This will help determine whether the adjustment has ended. If the adjustment ends and the upward momentum is still strong, there is a high probability that ETH will have one more peak before the rebound ends.

If the rebound has not yet ended, there will be an opportunity to go long soon. Under this scenario, all rebounds may end as early as this week, meaning after finding an opportunity to enter this long position, there will also be an opportunity at the end of the month to capture a subsequent large short position. Everything that needs to be said has been said, everyone should seize the opportunity. February has been stagnant for so long, it's time to reap the rewards.

Rock Sugar Orange Trend Navigation Analysis 2026.02.23

Yesterday's video mentioned that Rock Sugar Orange has already entered a state of extreme convergence. The decline starting from 72200 can be considered an adjustment, and the running time has already been too long. If we want to create a high point above 72200, a strong upward push must be seen in the next few days. This morning, Rock Sugar Orange broke through 75000, and the subsequent trends have two possibilities illustrated.

Red: The red box shown represents the entirety of the rebound, which forms a triangular adjustment structure and is considered a weak rebound. The rebound has ended, and we have now entered a new declining trend.

Blue: If Rock Sugar Orange can gain support in the illustrated blue range before 2.25 and exhibit synchronized volume and price increase, it could pull up one more wave before ending the rebound.

Both routes lead to the same destination, which is that after the rebound ends, Rock Sugar Orange will continue to decline, breaking below 60,000. The difference lies in whether there will still be a high point. We need to pay special attention in the next day or two; the significant trading opportunity mentioned in yesterday's video is about to appear. #BTC走势分析

Ice Sugar Orange Weekly Report‼️ (February Week 4)

【Weekly Level】(Figure 1)
1) The weekly chart has had 5 consecutive bearish candles. This week opened lower; we need to observe the closing situation. If it rebounds, then it will continue to oscillate. If it continues to close bearish, it may break the low.
2) The weekly support range is 48888-58900, and we may find support for a significant rebound in this range.

【Daily Level】(Figure 2)
The oscillation at the daily level is not sufficient, so a trending market will not appear for now. The subjective view is that it will not break below 59800; that will be the low for this period.

Other views continue from last week; 74300 and 77100 remain important resistance levels.

【4-Hour Level】(Figure 3)
The previous green line diagram plan has been canceled.
The oscillation over the past 17 days has formed a descending triangle at the 4-hour level. If the triangle breaks, it will extend to the support between 62-63, #BTC走势分析 .

Rock Candy Orange Trend Navigation Analysis 2026.02.20

Every round of bull market sees Rock Candy Orange drop significantly 📉, and the voices saying 'Rock Candy Orange is going to zero' always become quite loud. However, it has been proven that after each adjustment, Rock Candy Orange reaches new highs, often several times higher than the previous peak. I believe this time will be no exception.

As shown in the chart, today we look at the monthly chart of Rock Candy Orange. The black line represents the adjustment of this wave of Rock Candy Orange from 15400 to 126000. Currently, the adjustment is running down from 126000, which is targeting the black line. This adjustment is expected to end by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027, after which Rock Candy Orange will rise to two target positions at 158000 and 216000.

Right now, we are experiencing the first wave 📉. This first wave 📉 will definitely end and begin the second part of the rebound before continuing to 📉. The endpoint of this first wave 📉 is where we will enter Rock Candy Orange, providing excellent opportunities for Da Gouzi's long positions and various spot assets.

The role of the monthly chart is to help us see the overall trend, but actual trading should still start from the weekly, daily, and lower levels. I will update the analysis at smaller levels daily, so please stay tuned. Additionally, detailed trading plans and ideas will be updated in real-time in the Panda Trading Group. Interested friends can message me privately.

#BTC走势分析