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YashasEdu

Writing uncomfortable truths about money, systems and what we pretend we believe.
5.2 an(s)
10 Suivis
225 Abonnés
734 J’aime
15 Partagé(s)
Publications
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Haussier
$BTC has never fallen below the support line of the power law model Even during the crises of 2014, 2018 and 2022. Experts from Twitter consider the zone around $58K a unique opportunity for purchasing. The power law model is a long-term mathematical growth curve of $BTC where the price has historically bounced off the lower boundary.
$BTC has never fallen below the support line of the power law model

Even during the crises of 2014, 2018 and 2022.

Experts from Twitter consider the zone around $58K a unique opportunity for purchasing.

The power law model is a long-term mathematical growth curve of $BTC where the price has historically bounced off the lower boundary.
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Haussier
Most L2s are already dead. They just haven't run out of treasury yet. Three ways rollups actually die 👇 1. No distribution Nobody deploys on ghost chains. Cold-start problem kills more rollups than bad tech ever will. 2. Incentive exhaustion Points and airdrops rent you liquidity. The second rewards stop, capital leaves. 3. Zero moat Cheaper than X,Y, Z isn't a moat. Base has Coinbase. Ethereum is getting cheaper. What do you have? $BASE and $ARB now has about 67% combined, with the top three along with $OP at roughly 70%. The rest become zombie chains.
Most L2s are already dead. They just haven't run out of treasury yet.

Three ways rollups actually die 👇

1. No distribution
Nobody deploys on ghost chains. Cold-start problem kills more rollups than bad tech ever will.

2. Incentive exhaustion
Points and airdrops rent you liquidity. The second rewards stop, capital leaves.

3. Zero moat
Cheaper than X,Y, Z isn't a moat. Base has Coinbase. Ethereum is getting cheaper. What do you have?

$BASE and $ARB now has about 67% combined, with the top three along with $OP at roughly 70%.

The rest become zombie chains.
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Baissier
In just 100 days, the crypto market has erased more than $730B in value. What we are witnessing is an unprecedented short term capital flight, deepening the contraction of the crypto economy. $BTC $ETH $SOL wakeup guys!!!
In just 100 days, the crypto market has erased more than $730B in value.

What we are witnessing is an unprecedented short term capital flight, deepening the contraction of the crypto economy.

$BTC $ETH $SOL wakeup guys!!!
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Haussier
By 2028, Gartner projects 33% of enterprise software will run agentic AI, up from near zero in 2024. ‣ Only 11% of organizations are actually running agentic AI in production today ‣ 35% don't even have a strategy ‣ 40%+ of agentic projects will fail by 2027 The gap between hype and execution is massive. Now apply that to DeFi, where fragmentation across chains makes execution even harder. $IN just publicly launched Prompt-to-DeFi. You describe a strategy in plain English, their swarm of 20+ AI agents builds the full crosschain execution path. What kind of strategies? ➤ Yield strategies on 8 chains including stablecoin looping on newer chains like Katana (gives ~60%+ APY) ➤ Delta-Neutral strategies on stablecoin pairs ➤ Leveraged looping on Aave, Morpho with auto-collateral management ➤ Crosschain liquidity provisioning through Pendle  ➤ Multi-protocol yield tokenization in a single bundled transaction ➤ Airdrop point farming on Hyperliquid and more All through account abstraction (ERC-4337 + EIP-7702). The part I keep coming back to is agents build the transaction, but never hold your keys (Fully non-custodial) They're also building a strategy creator marketplace where DeFi gurus publish strategies and earn revenue share when others run them. Most of crypto is talking about AI agents. Few are actually shipping the infrastructure.
By 2028, Gartner projects 33% of enterprise software will run agentic AI, up from near zero in 2024.

‣ Only 11% of organizations are actually running agentic AI in production today
‣ 35% don't even have a strategy
‣ 40%+ of agentic projects will fail by 2027

The gap between hype and execution is massive. Now apply that to DeFi, where fragmentation across chains makes execution even harder.

$IN just publicly launched Prompt-to-DeFi. You describe a strategy in plain English, their swarm of 20+ AI agents builds the full crosschain execution path.

What kind of strategies?

➤ Yield strategies on 8 chains including stablecoin looping on newer chains like Katana (gives ~60%+ APY)
➤ Delta-Neutral strategies on stablecoin pairs
➤ Leveraged looping on Aave, Morpho with auto-collateral management
➤ Crosschain liquidity provisioning through Pendle 
➤ Multi-protocol yield tokenization in a single bundled transaction
➤ Airdrop point farming on Hyperliquid and more

All through account abstraction (ERC-4337 + EIP-7702). The part I keep coming back to is agents build the transaction, but never hold your keys (Fully non-custodial)

They're also building a strategy creator marketplace where DeFi gurus publish strategies and earn revenue share when others run them.

Most of crypto is talking about AI agents. Few are actually shipping the infrastructure.
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Haussier
There is a reason why Katana diverges from most DeFi incentive models. Other protocols/chains: emissions = inflation Tokens get printed, distributed and dumped. The chain/protocol hopes activity catches up before the token bleeds out. Katana: Over time, emissions get funded through buybacks from actual revenue (Vaultbridge yield, AUSD yield, chain-owned liquidity returns and sequencer fees) The flywheel👇 Emissions → liquidity → better execution → more volume → more fees → fees fund emissions Here emissions stop being a subsidy and start being a redistribution of real economic activity. If it works, it's one of the first chains where incentives pay for themselves. And now their launch strategy reflects this same thinking. Most projects rush to TGE, list the token and figure out liquidity later. Recently $MEGA did something different with their KPI based TGE and now Katana has delayed the KAT TGE (now expected in March) specifically to integrate KAT's native yield into major CEX Earn products first. So now before the token is even freely tradable, users will be able to earn Katana yield directly from their exchange accounts. ➢ Today was the original automatic unlock date but no $KAT unlock will happen ➢ Existing balances, vKAT positions and deposit rewards are all unaffected (No action needed from users) Build the liquidity rails first. Then open the floodgates is the new sequencing than we usually see and it tells you something about what good projects are optimizing for moving forward.
There is a reason why Katana diverges from most DeFi incentive models.

Other protocols/chains: emissions = inflation

Tokens get printed, distributed and dumped. The chain/protocol hopes activity catches up before the token bleeds out.

Katana: Over time, emissions get funded through buybacks from actual revenue (Vaultbridge yield, AUSD yield, chain-owned liquidity returns and sequencer fees)

The flywheel👇

Emissions → liquidity → better execution → more volume → more fees → fees fund emissions

Here emissions stop being a subsidy and start being a redistribution of real economic activity. If it works, it's one of the first chains where incentives pay for themselves.

And now their launch strategy reflects this same thinking.

Most projects rush to TGE, list the token and figure out liquidity later. Recently $MEGA did something different with their KPI based TGE and now Katana has delayed the KAT TGE (now expected in March) specifically to integrate KAT's native yield into major CEX Earn products first.

So now before the token is even freely tradable, users will be able to earn Katana yield directly from their exchange accounts.

➢ Today was the original automatic unlock date but no $KAT unlock will happen
➢ Existing balances, vKAT positions and deposit rewards are all unaffected (No action needed from users)

Build the liquidity rails first. Then open the floodgates is the new sequencing than we usually see and it tells you something about what good projects are optimizing for moving forward.
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Haussier
To someone who's building their personal brand I'd suggest y'all to become a good storyteller. ⤑ Develop stories about your experiences in life/work ⤑ Start getting into the habit of telling stories to friends/colleagues socially or at work ⤑ Listen to any professional speaker and you will notice that their speeches are filled with stories ⤑ Stories are easy for us to remember as speakers and easy for the audience to remember ⤑ Write out your best stories making sure they all have a clear message ⤑ Buy some books of short stories and fables and learn how the masters construct entertaining stories. Trust me you won't regret it.
To someone who's building their personal brand I'd suggest y'all to become a good storyteller.

⤑ Develop stories about your experiences in life/work
⤑ Start getting into the habit of telling stories to friends/colleagues socially or at work
⤑ Listen to any professional speaker and you will notice that their speeches are filled with stories
⤑ Stories are easy for us to remember as speakers and easy for the audience to remember
⤑ Write out your best stories making sure they all have a clear message
⤑ Buy some books of short stories and fables and learn how the masters construct entertaining stories.

Trust me you won't regret it.
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Haussier
RWA lending leaders are emerging. $KMNO is up there with $MORPHO and $AAVE RWAs make up 30% of our deposits and are foundational for Kamino.
RWA lending leaders are emerging.

$KMNO is up there with $MORPHO and $AAVE

RWAs make up 30% of our deposits and are foundational for Kamino.
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Haussier
$ENA 's white label stablecoins just crossed $100M in total circulating supply for the first time, now sitting at $131M across jupUSD, USDm, and suiUSDe collectively jupUSD nearly doubled overnight to $74M, driving the bulk of the move. From $0 to $131M in roughly 6 weeks
$ENA 's white label stablecoins just crossed $100M in total circulating supply for the first time, now sitting at $131M across jupUSD, USDm, and suiUSDe collectively

jupUSD nearly doubled overnight to $74M, driving the bulk of the move.

From $0 to $131M in roughly 6 weeks
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Baissier
Base just announced it's moving away from the OP Superchain to its own unified codebase. Why? ‣ Too many external dependencies slowing things down ‣ Want to ship 6 hard forks/year instead of 3 ‣ One dev should be able to understand the full stack ‣ Need to test upgrades (like ZK proofs) without waiting on other teams $OP dropped 22% on the news. We always knew this day would come.
Base just announced it's moving away from the OP Superchain to its own unified codebase.

Why?

‣ Too many external dependencies slowing things down
‣ Want to ship 6 hard forks/year instead of 3
‣ One dev should be able to understand the full stack
‣ Need to test upgrades (like ZK proofs) without waiting on other teams

$OP dropped 22% on the news. We always knew this day would come.
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Haussier
$SOL total app revenue dropped 41.8% last quarter. Sounds bearish until you look at the app revenue capture ratio (how much apps earn per dollar spent in transaction fees) which went from 262% to 375%. ➢ For every $1 in network fees, applications pulled in $3.75 in revenue ➢ Activity cooled but monetization per unit of activity got significantly better That's the difference between a chain losing momentum and a chain getting more capital-efficient.
$SOL total app revenue dropped 41.8% last quarter.

Sounds bearish until you look at the app revenue capture ratio (how much apps earn per dollar spent in transaction fees) which went from 262% to 375%.

➢ For every $1 in network fees, applications pulled in $3.75 in revenue
➢ Activity cooled but monetization per unit of activity got significantly better

That's the difference between a chain losing momentum and a chain getting more capital-efficient.
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Baissier
Altcoin sell pressure just hit a 5-year high. Since January 2025, the cumulative buy/sell difference for alts has gone down. The buyers just aren't there for every alt, focus on rev-generating alts. The ones I am watching is $SOL $HYPE $SYRUP $AERO $TAO
Altcoin sell pressure just hit a 5-year high.

Since January 2025, the cumulative buy/sell difference for alts has gone down.

The buyers just aren't there for every alt, focus on rev-generating alts.

The ones I am watching is $SOL $HYPE $SYRUP $AERO $TAO
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Haussier
AI agents onchain have been quietly building momentum. ‣ 21K+ registered identities via ERC-8004 ‣ Paying each other through x402 ‣ Launching tokens, deploying contracts ‣ $VIRTUAL is sitting at $410M mcap in agent generated economic activity Now today OpenAI x Paradigm dropped EVMbench. A benchmark testing whether AI agents can detect, exploit and patch real smart contract vulnerabilities. ➢ 120 high-risk bugs pulled from 40+ actual audits ➢ Claude Opus 4.6 topped the detection leaderboard at $37.8K avg reward ➢ Codex performance jumped 70% in a short window Agents were transacting onchain and now they're learning to audit the very contracts they transact through. But remember most agents today are still closer to scripts than autonomous thinkers. A lot of the volume is agents paying agents inside closed loops. The infra was there. The inflection point is here, now agents will start generating revenue from the real world. And now it is no more a narrative, now it's an economy.
AI agents onchain have been quietly building momentum.

‣ 21K+ registered identities via ERC-8004
‣ Paying each other through x402
‣ Launching tokens, deploying contracts
‣ $VIRTUAL is sitting at $410M mcap in agent generated economic activity

Now today OpenAI x Paradigm dropped EVMbench. A benchmark testing whether AI agents can detect, exploit and patch real smart contract vulnerabilities.

➢ 120 high-risk bugs pulled from 40+ actual audits
➢ Claude Opus 4.6 topped the detection leaderboard at $37.8K avg reward
➢ Codex performance jumped 70% in a short window

Agents were transacting onchain and now they're learning to audit the very contracts they transact through. But remember most agents today are still closer to scripts than autonomous thinkers. A lot of the volume is agents paying agents inside closed loops.

The infra was there. The inflection point is here, now agents will start generating revenue from the real world. And now it is no more a narrative, now it's an economy.
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Haussier
$AAVE ' earnings in 2022 was -$47M and by 2025 it is +$66.7M🔥 ➣ $128M in protocol revenue ➣ $868M in total fees  ➣ Treasury sitting at $248M But the real story isn't the turnaround. It's what comes next. Now it's not about lending markets for Aave anymore. It's about abundance assets solar, batteries, compute (Technologies where costs collapse while capacity scales) StaniKulechov yesterday dropped the 25-year roadmap yesterday.  ‣ Solar module prices dropped 99.8% since 1976 ‣ The world needs to go from ~1,700 GW to 14,000 GW of solar by 2050 ‣ That's a $50T funding gap Aave's Horizon platform lets developers tokenize solar farm debt ⭢ collateralize it onchain ⭢ borrow GHO against it ⭢ redeploy that capital into the next project But do note there are big players eyeing this sector. If Aave cracks this then it will be huge.
$AAVE ' earnings in 2022 was -$47M and by 2025 it is +$66.7M🔥

➣ $128M in protocol revenue
➣ $868M in total fees 
➣ Treasury sitting at $248M

But the real story isn't the turnaround. It's what comes next.

Now it's not about lending markets for Aave anymore. It's about abundance assets solar, batteries, compute (Technologies where costs collapse while capacity scales) StaniKulechov yesterday dropped the 25-year roadmap yesterday. 

‣ Solar module prices dropped 99.8% since 1976
‣ The world needs to go from ~1,700 GW to 14,000 GW of solar by 2050
‣ That's a $50T funding gap

Aave's Horizon platform lets developers tokenize solar farm debt ⭢ collateralize it onchain ⭢ borrow GHO against it ⭢ redeploy that capital into the next project

But do note there are big players eyeing this sector. If Aave cracks this then it will be huge.
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Haussier
So Saylor didn't build a company. He has built a one-way door for Bitcoin. Most people look at Strategy and see leveraged $BTC bet and they miss what's actually happening here 👇 The debt structure is the product. ➤ Borrowed $3B and pays zero interest on it ➤ Zero Bitcoin tied to any loan ➤ No margin calls, no price-based triggers in any contract Then there's the liquidity layer ($2.25B in USD reserves) Annual obligations (dividends, interest, operations, the total comes to ~$887M/yr) $2.25B ÷ $887M = 2.5 years (without selling one Bitcoin) And if they pause dividends, that runway stretches to decades. In this case the stock takes a hit, while bitcoin stays. This makes a financial structure where Bitcoin only flows in and nothing in the contract language can force it out. 714.6K $BTC behind walls that don't crack at $8K, $20K or anywhere in between. Solid architecture.
So Saylor didn't build a company. He has built a one-way door for Bitcoin.

Most people look at Strategy and see leveraged $BTC bet and they miss what's actually happening here 👇

The debt structure is the product.

➤ Borrowed $3B and pays zero interest on it
➤ Zero Bitcoin tied to any loan
➤ No margin calls, no price-based triggers in any contract

Then there's the liquidity layer ($2.25B in USD reserves) Annual obligations (dividends, interest, operations, the total comes to ~$887M/yr)

$2.25B ÷ $887M = 2.5 years (without selling one Bitcoin)

And if they pause dividends, that runway stretches to decades. In this case the stock takes a hit, while bitcoin stays. This makes a financial structure where Bitcoin only flows in and nothing in the contract language can force it out.

714.6K $BTC behind walls that don't crack at $8K, $20K or anywhere in between.

Solid architecture.
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Haussier
$BNB become the second largest network by total RWA value, surpassing $SOL In Q4, total RWA value on the chain reached $2B. The majority of that is concentrated in USYC ($1.4B) and BUIDL ($503M), both effectively functioning as yield-bearing funds plugged directly into Binance’s distribution engine.
$BNB become the second largest network by total RWA value, surpassing $SOL

In Q4, total RWA value on the chain reached $2B.

The majority of that is concentrated in USYC ($1.4B) and BUIDL ($503M), both effectively functioning as yield-bearing funds plugged directly into Binance’s distribution engine.
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Haussier
$BTC has been bleeding for 4 months and everyone's waiting for a 2022-style capitulation to buy. Problem is, this cycle never hit extreme overvaluation in the first place. MVRV sitting at 1.1 right now. Below 1 is historically undervalued (We're close) But if the top was muted, why would the bottom look like past cycles? It probably won't and that's going to fake out a lot of people waiting for a playbook that doesn't apply anymore.
$BTC has been bleeding for 4 months and everyone's waiting for a 2022-style capitulation to buy.

Problem is, this cycle never hit extreme overvaluation in the first place. MVRV sitting at 1.1 right now. Below 1 is historically undervalued (We're close)

But if the top was muted, why would the bottom look like past cycles?

It probably won't and that's going to fake out a lot of people waiting for a playbook that doesn't apply anymore.
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Haussier
There's a pattern with DeFi protocols that actually make it. They stop being one thing and become infra while managing it to sustain it even in a bear market. Maple is exactly doing that. It started as institutional lending and has scaled beyond it.  ➢ Total AUM sits at $4.5B+ ➢ $20B in loans originated (Currently has $2.4B active loans) ➢ Generated $8M+ in fees last month  ➢ $SYRUP is sitting at $317M mcap Most yield sources in DeFi are synthetic. Maple's comes from overcollateralized loans to real borrowers. It is one of those projects that experienced extraordinary growth this cycle. That's the difference. 
There's a pattern with DeFi protocols that actually make it.

They stop being one thing and become infra while managing it to sustain it even in a bear market.

Maple is exactly doing that. It started as institutional lending and has scaled beyond it. 

➢ Total AUM sits at $4.5B+
➢ $20B in loans originated (Currently has $2.4B active loans)
➢ Generated $8M+ in fees last month 
➢ $SYRUP is sitting at $317M mcap

Most yield sources in DeFi are synthetic. Maple's comes from overcollateralized loans to real borrowers. It is one of those projects that experienced extraordinary growth this cycle.

That's the difference. 
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Haussier
Ethena’s FDV-to-fees ratio compressed to ~5.8 in January, while fees hit $29M (+32% MoM). With $ENA trading near ATL, the playbook is clear: 1. push USDe into TradFi and CeFi 2. embed it deeper as collateral 3. optimize duration and yield as rates roll over If execution lands, Ethena likely looks very different in a lower-rate regime.
Ethena’s FDV-to-fees ratio compressed to ~5.8 in January, while fees hit $29M (+32% MoM).

With $ENA trading near ATL, the playbook is clear:

1. push USDe into TradFi and CeFi
2. embed it deeper as collateral
3. optimize duration and yield as rates roll over

If execution lands, Ethena likely looks very different in a lower-rate regime.
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Haussier
IMO $HYPE is doing what Binance did in 2019-2021. ➤ HIP-3 now make up ~28% of total volume ➤ Weekly trading volume has passed Coinbase ➤ HIP-4 brings prediction markets and options ➤ Showing so much strength against BTC in this market conditions ➤ So far $873.69M has been distributed to token holders in 2026 Hyperliquid isn't building a better DEX. It's building the onchain exchange layer for everything (Perps, spot, options, prediction markets, TradFi assets) One platform, shared liquidity.
IMO $HYPE is doing what Binance did in 2019-2021.

➤ HIP-3 now make up ~28% of total volume
➤ Weekly trading volume has passed Coinbase
➤ HIP-4 brings prediction markets and options
➤ Showing so much strength against BTC in this market conditions
➤ So far $873.69M has been distributed to token holders in 2026

Hyperliquid isn't building a better DEX. It's building the onchain exchange layer for everything (Perps, spot, options, prediction markets, TradFi assets)

One platform, shared liquidity.
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Haussier
There's a $230T securities market and a $25.5T collateral market. That gap is the biggest unlock in finance and $CC is building the pipes to close it. - DTCC tokenizing Treasuries - Euroclear running gold collateral - JPMorgan deploying JPM Coin They also just powered the first private stablecoin payroll for a real enterprise. This is what institutional crypto actually looks like.
There's a $230T securities market and a $25.5T collateral market.

That gap is the biggest unlock in finance and $CC is building the pipes to close it.

- DTCC tokenizing Treasuries
- Euroclear running gold collateral
- JPMorgan deploying JPM Coin

They also just powered the first private stablecoin payroll for a real enterprise.

This is what institutional crypto actually looks like.
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