Yolonda Bohan teRZ

Fed sygnalizuje koniec cyklu zacieśniania
Ostatnia konferencja prasowa FOMC Jerome'a Powella przekazała wyraźny i silny komunikat pod usualnym ostrożnym językiem: era podwyżek stóp procentowych dobiegła końca.
Rezerwa Federalna utrzymała stopy procentowe na poziomie 3,5%–3,75% w decyzji 10–2. Żaden członek nie argumentował za kolejną podwyżką, podczas gdy dwóch już poparło cięcie. Powell uczynił stanowisko jednoznacznym, gdy powiedział: „Podwyżka stóp procentowych nie jest bazowym scenariuszem nikogo.” Tą wypowiedzią cykl zacieśniania został skutecznie uznany za zakończony.

🚨 CRITICAL WARNING: The Next 72 Hours Could Decide Crypto’s Next Major Trend
The crypto market is entering an extremely sensitive macro phase where multiple heavyweight events are colliding at the same time. This is not normal volatility. This is the type of setup that breaks ranges, flips trends, drains liquidity, and punishes traders who underestimate timing and risk.
Over the next three days, six powerful catalysts will hit the market almost back-to-back. Any one of them alone can move prices. Together, they create a fragile environment where one wrong signal can trigger fast, aggressive sell-offs.
1) Donald Trump Speech (Today – 4:00 PM ET)
Trump is expected to talk about the U.S. economy and energy prices.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Energy prices directly affect inflation expectations.
• If he pushes for lower energy prices → markets may briefly see it as inflation cooling.
• If he hints at tariffs, trade pressure, or policy conflict → uncertainty rises.
Markets hate uncertainty. Risk assets hate it even more.
And Trump’s recent tariff talk historically points toward higher inflation, not lower — which puts the Federal Reserve in an even tighter position.
2) Federal Reserve Decision + Powell’s Speech
Rates are expected to stay unchanged.
So the decision itself isn’t the trigger — Powell’s tone is.
Inflation is still sticky, especially in labor data.
Powell has also resisted political pressure to cut rates.
If Powell sounds hawkish: • Rates stay higher for longer
• Liquidity remains tight
• Risk assets struggle to trend
In crypto, this often creates violent range manipulation, fake breakouts, and liquidation spikes on both sides.
3) Mega-Cap Tech Earnings: Tesla, Meta, Microsoft
These giants control overall risk sentiment.
• Strong earnings → relief rally
• Weak earnings → risk-off wave
The danger is timing:
They report the same day as the FOMC decision.
If Powell is hawkish and earnings disappoint, downside pressure can accelerate rapidly.
Crypto does not move in isolation — when equities wobble, crypto usually overreacts.
4) U.S. PPI Inflation Data (Thursday)
PPI shows inflation at the producer level before it reaches consumers.
• Hot PPI = inflation still sticky
• Sticky inflation = no rate cuts
• No rate cuts = no fresh liquidity
Without liquidity, crypto rallies struggle to survive.
5) Apple Earnings (Same Day)
Apple is not just another stock.
It’s a market anchor.
Weak Apple earnings can: • Drag major indices
• Damage sentiment
• Crush risk appetite
When Apple sneezes, the market catches a cold — and crypto often catches pneumonia.
6) U.S. Government Shutdown Deadline (Friday)
This is the silent risk most traders ignore.
Historically, shutdown fears: • Drain liquidity
• Spike volatility
• Pressure risk assets
With current conditions already tight, a shutdown would be especially dangerous for leveraged positions.
The 72-Hour Macro Collision
Within just three days, markets must absorb:
• Trump’s economic speech
• Fed decision + Powell guidance
• Tesla, Meta, Microsoft earnings
• PPI inflation data
• Apple earnings
• U.S. government shutdown deadline
This is not normal.
This is compressed macro risk — the kind that defines direction for weeks, not hours.
Final Takeaway
This is not the environment for: • Blind leverage
• Emotional entries
• Chasing breakouts without confirmation
Volatility will spike.
Liquidity traps will appear.
Fake moves will look real.
If even one of these events breaks against expectations, red candles can return fast.
In weeks like this, survival beats bravado.
Capital preservation is the real trade.
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