CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data shows a significant surge in whale inflows to the Binance platform, reflecting a clear shift in the behavior of major Bitcoin holders. The 30-day average of whale inflows to the platform has reached approximately $8.3 billion, the highest level recorded since 2024, giving this development particular significance in terms of its market implications.

This rapid increase in the 30-day average of whale inflows is often interpreted as a potential predisposition to sell or reallocate positions, especially when it coincides with a decline or relative weakness in price action. Meanwhile, the data shows that Bitcoin was trading near $66,400 at the time of this reading, significantly below its previous highs, suggesting that potential selling pressure may be a contributing factor to this weak price performance.

From another perspective, the 30-day moving average of whale flows reaching its highest level since 2024 does not necessarily signify an outright sell-off. It could also reflect strategic moves to manage liquidity, shift assets for use in derivatives, or repositioning in anticipation of larger future moves. However, historically, significant jumps in this average tend to coincide with periods of increased volatility or transitional phases in market structure.

It is also noteworthy that this surge followed a period of relatively stable whale flows, reinforcing the hypothesis of a shift in major investor sentiment. If these flows continue to rise, we may see an increase in the supply available for sale on exchanges, a factor that could put downward pressure on prices in the short term. Conversely, if the flows begin to decline again, it could signal the end of the distribution phase and the beginning of a gradual return of confidence.

Written by Arab Chain

This study combines three metrics: Binance Exchange Inflow, Liquidity USD (MAG-XRP), and Liquidity XRP (MAG-XRP). Together, they help explain how exchange supply and on-chain liquidity conditions have historically aligned with major XRP price movements.

Exchange Inflow on Binance shows a sharp spike during the highlighted period before the strong rally. Large inflows typically indicate tokens moving to exchanges, which can signal potential sell pressure. However, inflows do not always translate into immediate selling. In this case, the spike coincided with rising volatility and preceded a major price expansion.

Liquidity USD measures the capital depth supporting XRP markets. During the rally phase, USD liquidity expanded significantly, allowing price to sustain upward momentum. Recently, USD liquidity has been declining, suggesting thinner market depth compared to the expansion phase. Lower depth often increases volatility sensitivity.

Liquidity XRP reflects token-side availability. Before the breakout, XRP liquidity compressed noticeably, indicating reduced active supply. That compression phase aligned with the start of the strong upward move. Currently, XRP liquidity is trending lower again, resembling earlier pre-expansion conditions.

Historically in this chart, a combination of exchange inflow spikes and liquidity compression preceded volatility expansion. Rising USD liquidity supported sustained moves, while declining liquidity increased fragility.

At present, exchange inflows remain moderate, but both USD and XRP liquidity are contracting. This suggests a thinner market structure where price reactions may become sharper.

These metrics provide structural context but should not be used in isolation. Combine them with derivatives positioning, funding trends, and broader market structure before forming directional conclusions.

Written by The Alchemist 9

Altcoin performance analysis shows that most investors exposed to these assets today (excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins) are now in significant difficulty, particularly those still holding positions.

The market continues to be driven by BTC’s movements, which has been in a downtrend since October 2025 following an ATH at $126,000. At present, BTC’s momentum remains highly uncertain, with price still hovering at roughly 46% of its all time high.

Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, alongside increasingly hawkish projections and tone from the Fed expressed in the latest FOMC minutes, are making the current environment especially challenging for highly volatile assets such as altcoins.

On Binance, which offers a wide range of altcoins, 83% are now trading below their 50 week moving average, suggesting a deeply established corrective trend. Since the end of the bear market in 2023, a new record was set on February 7, with more than 92% of altcoins on Binance trading below this key technical support.

It worth noting that the 50 week moving average is a technical level commonly used in market analysis, particularly by long term investors. It is considered a key threshold for determining an asset’s broader trend.

Altcoins therefore illustrate a clear shift in market dynamics compared to March 2024, when only 6% of altcoins on Binance were trading below this level, and 7% in December 2024.

It is nevertheless worth noting that outside of these periods, which lasted several months, at least 50% of altcoins remained below this threshold, a dynamic quite different from the previous cycle.

This trend is partly driven by the increase in altcoin supply across the broader crypto market combined with still constrained liquidity conditions. In this context, outperforming requires a clear understanding of how market dynamics have evolved, along with careful asset selection supported by a well structured investment plan.

Written by Darkfost

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently suggested there is a 90% chance the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of April. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aims to clarify the regulatory boundary between the SEC and CFTC, establish registration frameworks for exchanges and brokers, formalize custody and asset segregation rules, and codify AML/KYC standards. It seeks to reduce long-standing ambiguity around who regulates the U.S. crypto spot market and under what rules.

The main delay stems from the Senate Banking Committee postponing markup of H.R.3633. The core dispute centers on stablecoin yield. While the GENIUS Act bans issuers from paying interest, banks argue that exchange-based rewards create de facto yield products that could drain deposits from traditional banking. As the chart shows, the total supply of yield-bearing stablecoins has expanded sharply since late 2024, reaching multi-billion levels in 2025, underscoring how rapidly this segment is growing within the on-chain economy.

This growth has intensified political and financial tensions. Crypto firms seek to distinguish between issuer-paid interest and user-facing rewards, while banks push for tighter restrictions to prevent deposit outflows. Until compromise language is codified, Senate momentum remains fragile.

Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee has advanced separate CFTC-focused text, meaning multiple legislative packages must eventually be reconciled. Combined with bipartisan vote requirements, state preemption concerns, and unresolved DeFi provisions, the legislative path remains complex.

If enacted, the Act could compress regulatory risk premiums in the short term and reshape market structure over the long term. However, clarity will arrive in stages — first through headlines, then rulemaking, and finally enforcement. Until then, uncertainty remains embedded in the system.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The realized price data of whale addresses that are accumulating ETH bent downward for the first time.

There are 2 possibilities for this metric to bend downward.

[1] - Either a whale with a higher average cost SOLD, and this caused the average to go down.

[2] - Or there are whales that BUILT THEIR COST at lower prices, and this pulled the cost basis downward.

⁉️ OK! Which one is correct? Which one caused Realized Price to go down?

To understand which one is correct, we should also look at the Balance and Realized Cap data of the accumulating whales, next to this data.

When we also look at these 2 data sets, we see that "in the area where Realized Price bends downward", Balance increases, and Realized Cap also goes upward. From this, we understand that case [2] is the correct and valid case.

✅ So there is no selling behavior in the Accumulating Whales. On the contrary, there is buying at lower prices, and this is why Realized Price bends downward. The accumulating whales’ trust in ETH still looks strong.

⚠️ BUT, DO NOT FORGET!

This data and analysis does not represent the whole ETH universe. It is only data specific to the "accumulating whales" cohort, and it shows us their situation. But the ETH price can keep moving down or up in the short and medium term depending on other factors and the behavior of different investor groups.

Written by CryptoMe

Bitcoin data on the Binance platform, which links the Bitcoin price to the Z-Score (the monthly volume indicator for Bitcoin futures contracts), measures how far current trading activity deviates from its annual average. In the latest reading, the Z-Score is nearing -1.95, one of the lowest values ever recorded.

This deeply negative reading indicates that futures trading volumes are significantly below their long-term average, reflecting a clear contraction in liquidity and a decline in leverage. At the same time, Bitcoin is trading in a downward trend near $66,000, consistent with a weak momentum environment in the derivatives market.

This convergence between the price decline and the low Z-Score suggests that the current selling pressure is not driven by excessive speculative activity or leverage expansion, but rather reflects a cooling and repositioning phase among traders. Historically, such environments often emerge during periods of healthy correction or ahead of the formation of new price bases.

From a structural perspective, the Z-Score falling to extreme levels in parallel with the price decline indicates that the market is shedding weak positions and rebalancing away from overheating. This type of behavior is generally positive over the medium term, as it reduces the risk of widespread forced liquidations.

the Z-Score reaching approximately -1.95 while Bitcoin trades near $66,000 reflects a period of weakening momentum, but it could also form the foundation for a more stable price structure before any significant directional move in the near future.

Written by Arab Chain

There is a specific group of Bitcoin participants whose average cost basis has acted as a structural dividing line between bull and bear markets across every cycle in on-chain history. These are mid-weight traders — wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC with coins last moved within the past one to three months. Active enough to reflect real market sentiment. Sizeable enough to move it. Their realized price is now sitting at approximately $89,822, and Bitcoin hasn't traded above it since mid-January 2026.

The 2021 cycle shows exactly why this level matters. When BTC set its first ATH near $67,551 in November 2021, this cohort's realized price was around $33,700. Crucially, price never fell below that level during the mid-cycle consolidation — which is precisely why the market held constructive sentiment through late 2021 and early 2022. These traders remained in profit, conviction held, and the structure stayed intact. The realized price acted as a floor. The true bear market only confirmed itself in June 2022 when BTC crashed roughly 30% below their cost basis, reaching as low as $18,945.

The current situation has broken that pattern at a much earlier stage. This same cohort's realized price peaked near $94,000 in late 2025. Price slipped below it in mid-December 2025 and has not recovered. As of February 18, 2026, BTC trades near $66,424 — roughly 26% below what these active, mid-size traders paid on average. Every day that gap holds, this group sits in unrealized loss, and historically that is the condition that prolongs bear markets rather than resolves them.

The comparisons circulating right now to mid-2021's correction ignore this entirely. In 2021, these traders were never underwater. Today they are — by a wide margin. Until Bitcoin reclaims and holds above $89,800, the on-chain structure has not repaired. That is the level to watch, not price

Written by Crazzyblockk

The chart shows that the Exchange Supply Ratio (Binance) is clearly declining. In other words, the amount of ETH held on Binance is decreasing. Under normal conditions, this would be interpreted as reduced selling pressure. However, the fact that price is falling during the same period reveals how weak demand actually is.

A declining exchange balance alone is not inherently bullish. If no new capital is entering the market or worse, if existing demand is shrinking reduced supply cannot push prices higher. Liquidity is weak and buyers are not aggressive. There is no strong spot demand willing to move the price upward.

When supply drops but price continues to fall, the issue is not “fewer coins available for sale,” but rather a lack of buyers.

If the exchange supply ratio is decreasing while price trends downward, the selling pressure is likely coming from perpetual short positions and funding related dynamics. Aggressive activity in derivatives markets can suppress price even if spot supply is declining.

ETH leaving exchanges may also be moving to staking or changing hands through OTC deals. Therefore, assuming that withdrawn ETH will not be sold is not necessarily accurate.

The SMA(50) and SMA(100) are both sloping downward. Even as the ratio declines, momentum fails to recover. This proves that in a weak trend, positive on-chain data alone cannot lift price. First the trend must reverse only then can supply metrics support a sustained move higher.

If demand does not strengthen, low supply by itself will not trigger a rally. However, if short positions accumulate aggressively, the probability of a sudden short squeeze increases.

A falling supply ratio could amplify upside moves if a breakout occurs, but until then, the structure suggests that in this bearish season, there are simply not enough buyers to support a sustained upward move.

Written by PelinayPA

Same price level, completely different derivatives market — and that gap is exactly what makes the current data worth reading carefully.

In October 2024, ETH was trading around $2,400–$2,600. The aggregate funding rate across major CEXs was running between 0.055% and 0.097%. Every exchange was aligned — Binance, OKX, Bybit all positive, longs stacked, risk appetite wide open. Today, ETH sits near those same prices at $1,981, but the funding landscape has structurally flipped. The aggregate has collapsed to just +0.030%, and Binance is printing negative at -0.0034%, meaning shorts are now paying longs.

That inversion is the cycle signal. When price revisits a prior level but derivatives sentiment has reversed, it means the trader base was conditioned by everything in between — a run toward $3,300 and then a 40% drawdown in under six weeks. That doesn't invite the same crowd back at the same prices.

The divergence across exchanges deepens the read. OKX sits at near-zero +0.00076%, Bybit at +0.00104%, Deribit slightly negative. These platforms are neutral. Binance's negative funding isn't just directionally different — it's been persistent for two weeks, reaching as deep as -0.012% on individual sessions, while peers drift sideways.

When the dominant exchange leads negative while others lag, it typically reflects a slow structural repricing of risk rather than peak fear. Peak fear tends to snap back quickly. This doesn't. The cycle indicator here stays bearish until Binance's funding rate converges back toward neutral — and that hasn't happened yet.

Written by Crazzyblockk

On-chain data is revealing a developing divergence within the Bitcoin market, where long-term positioning continues to strengthen while transactional activity shows signs of moderation. Balances held by accumulating address cohorts are extending their structural uptrend, climbing steadily despite recent price volatility. The expansion is evident across both retail-linked accumulation and patterned accumulation wallets, reinforcing the view that conviction-driven holders are actively absorbing circulating supply.

What makes this trend more significant is the timing. Even as price momentum slows and corrective pressure emerges, accumulation flows remain persistent. Historically, this behavior reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative chasing. Supply is gradually migrating into wallets associated with long holding periods, tightening liquid availability across the network and reducing immediate sell-side pressure.

In contrast, inflow activity tied to more reactive market participants is softening. Transfers from CEX-connected addresses and highly active wallets have declined relative to prior expansion phases. Frequent in–out flow cohorts typically linked to trading liquidity are also showing reduced throughput. The simultaneous cooling in the Bull–Bear Indicator further suggests that speculative demand is compressing rather than expanding.

This combination signals an internal market rebalancing. Bitcoin is not exhibiting broad distribution characteristics; instead, the data points to ongoing supply absorption alongside declining short-term rotation. Such structures have historically aligned with mid-cycle consolidation environments, where accumulation builds beneath the surface before liquidity and demand return to drive the next directional expansion.

Written by CryptoZeno

Last time this occurred was in July 2022.

Bitcoin trading in $20,000 range.

Retail investors selling at a high loss precedes price bottom regions! 🟢

Written by G a a h

[A Stabilizing Market]

After undergoing a -48% correction between October and February, Bitcoin has stabilized, suggesting a market transition from sharp repricing to consolidation. In this steadier environment, Nexo clients are withdrawing more credit than during previous months.

[Nexo Retail Credit Withdrawals Escalating in January]

While the Nexo client withdrawals declined through 2025, reflecting a broad risk-off behavior, the leveling off in late 2025 / early 2026 suggests retail participants have largely completed balance-sheet tightening. At the same time, CryptoQuant’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) has been resetting to healthier levels.

From December 2025 to January 2026, the weekly retail withdrawals of Nexo users grew from 6.73 to 13.92 million, representing a ~107% growth.

This new confidence among the Nexo investors reflects improved sentiment, and mirrors a weakening bitcoin-related selling pressure, as the leading cryptocurrency paves its way towards consolidation.

[Cumulative Credit Withdrawals Reach an All-Time High]

Nexo users' cumulative credit withdrawals have reached $863 million between 2025 and 2026. This figure reflects robust borrowing activity across market cycles, indicating ongoing demand for crypto-backed liquidity solutions.

Recent data signals the end of deleveraging and emerging signs of renewed confidence and borrowing demand as the crypto market reaches a new equilibrium.

[Looking Forward]

The recent crypto deleveraging phase appears largely absorbed, with open interest declining from prior highs, funding rates normalizing, and liquidation volumes subsiding. This potentially creates room for renewed borrowing activity should sentiment and liquidity conditions improve. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is consolidating and stabilizing near $67K, building a firm base after the recent volatility surge.

Written by oinonen_t

The cumulative flow chart for XRP whales into the Binance platform during 2026 shows a clear increase in the volume of coins deposited by large wallets, reaching approximately 3.8 billion XRP. This behavior carries significant implications regarding the nature of the current market phase and the expectations of major market participants.

Since the beginning of January 2026, the cumulative curve has been gradually and steadily rising, reflecting a continuous influx of large amounts of XRP into the platform. This pattern does not appear random or driven by short-term spikes; rather, it shows a series of successive increases, indicating that whales are undertaking systematic transfers of large balances instead of isolated, individual movements. This type of behavior is usually interpreted as a potential preparation for redistributing liquidity or capitalizing on anticipated price movements.

What stands out in the chart is the clear acceleration in the pace of increase during the first half of February, with the cumulative value rising at a faster rate compared to January. This acceleration suggests a growing appetite among whales to move their assets to exchanges, which may be linked to expectations of higher price volatility or an approaching market decision point. Historically, increased whale flows to exchanges have coincided with periods of either short-term price corrections or repositioning ahead of a new trend.

With cumulative flows reaching levels exceeding several billion XRP, the amount of liquidity theoretically available for sale is arguably greater than before. However, this does not necessarily imply direct selling pressure, as some of these flows may be used for other purposes, such as providing liquidity for trading pairs or transferring assets between internal exchange portfolios.

Written by Arab Chain

Long Term Holders have been particularly active throughout this cycle, as highlighted by the CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) heatmap.

CDD is an indicator that measures the number of holding days accumulated by a BTC each time an UTXO is spent. When displayed as a heatmap, this metric provides a clear and immediate overview of LTHs activity.

When compared to previous market cycles, it becomes apparent that this cycle stands out as the one in which LTHs have been the most active.

This activity has also tended to intensify around market tops, suggesting that their significant selling pressure likely played a role in marking these local peaks.

That said, it is important to note that this cycle has also introduced additional sources of noise that may have contributed to increased LTH activity without necessarily being tied to outright selling pressure. Several major entities have conducted UTXO consolidation transactions, including Coinbase and Fidelity Investments.

Furthermore, the emergence of Ordinals and Bitcoin inscriptions has prompted some long standing holders to migrate from legacy addresses toward SegWit (P2WPKH = bc1q...) or Taproot (P2TR = bc1p...) formats, which may also have impacted CDD readings.

Finally, the arrival of institutional capital and new market participants has significantly improved overall market liquidity, allowing Long Term Holders to distribute larger amounts of BTC than in previous cycles.

Written by Darkfost

Analyzing exchange reserves can provide valuable insights into investor behavior for a given asset.

When a sharp increase in an asset’s reserves on an exchange is observed, it generally reflects investors’ willingness to transfer their funds onto these platforms, most often with the intention of selling. This type of dynamic tends to signal potential short term selling pressure, as assets become immediately liquid once deposited on an exchange.

Conversely, a decline in reserves held on trading platforms sends a very different signal. It suggests that investors are withdrawing their assets from exchanges, reflecting an accumulation trend and a stronger long term conviction, as funds are moved into private custody solutions rather than kept in a trading environment.

This is precisely the trend currently observed in the XRP supply ratio on Binance. This indicator simply measures the proportion of the asset’s total supply held by a given exchange.

Over the past ten days, the XRP supply ratio on Binance has recorded a notable decline, dropping from 0.027 to 0.025. During this period, approximately 200 million XRP have left the platform.

While some of these movements may occasionally result from internal reallocations by the exchange itself, platforms such as Binance regularly publish their custody addresses, making it possible to distinguish organic user driven flows from internal operational adjustments with reasonable accuracy.

This dynamic therefore suggests that some investors consider current price levels to be attractive from an accumulation standpoint. It is worth noting that the asset has undergone a correction of around 40% since the beginning of the year, which may further strengthen the interest of investors adopting a longer term strategy.

As a result, these investors appear to be positioning for the long term by withdrawing their XRP from exchanges in order to store them in private wallets.

Written by Darkfost

Retail is fully disengaged. No accumulation. No FOMO.

Retail capitulation at this scale has historically marked late-stage corrections. But it doesn't mean immediate reversal.

Retail stays out longer than you think.

- Retail Demand 30D Change: deep negative - matching 2022 bear lows and mid-2024 capitulation

- BTC price: ~69K (down from 125K ATH)

- Transfer volume ($0-$10K): collapsing - small wallets aren't buying

- Last time this low: 15K-20K (2022) and 25K (mid-2023)

Written by IT Tech

Since $ETH bottomed, altcoin trading volume has increased incomparable to last cycle.

Most altcoins haven't even recovered yet. However, they are showing massive trading volume and strong buying walls.

Most retail investors are selling altcoins in fear, while someones are absorbing this selling volume.

The process of preparing for a bull market in this cycle is occurring unprecedented buying.

This cycle's alt season will be incomparably more powerful than last cycle.

Written by CW8900

In-depth data, including all metric breakdowns and visual trend analysis, is available in the full infographic. The information below is an executive summary of the on-chain panorama.

No different from the giants trading Bitcoin via ETFs and CME futures in the US — who have already lost $8.5 billion since October and seen exposure plunge by two-thirds since the 2024 peak — Bitcoin Traders with a specific profile are also enduring historic losses. These are addresses with UTXO age between 1 and 3 months, balances from 10 to 10,000 BTC, that reject CEXs and miners, preferring self-custody in hard wallets. The result? An unrealized loss of $27.89 billion, or -23.39%. Just like the American institutional market, which trades at a persistent discount on Coinbase, this group faces the same selling pressure that knocked Bitcoin down more than 40%.

Even with the 3 pillars from the previous analysis — Accumulators (demand of 371.9K BTC), Retail (+6,384 BTC in 30 days) and Miners (MPI of -1.11) — sustaining the price between $66K and $70K and preventing an immediate collapse, the macroeconomic scenario indicates it is still too early for the bear market to end. The protection from these agents merely delays the inevitable: Bitcoin's encounter with deeper levels.

WHERE BTC MAY FIND BOTTOM

◾ Immediate Support → $60,000 – Region concentrating the highest trading volume from the first half of 2024.

◾ Realized Price → $54,800 – The last major on-chain defense. It's the average cost basis of all holders.

◾ Extreme Scenario → $42,000 – Levels not seen since February 2024.

THE BARE TRUTH

Loss has no class. Whether on Wall Street's glass-floored trading floors or in the solitude of a hard wallet, the entire market is hostage to the same bloodbath. ETFs and on-chain addresses share the same red. The recovery? It depends on price reaction at the levels above.

Written by GugaOnChain

In-depth data, including all metric breakdowns and visual trend analysis, is available in the full infographic. The information below is an executive summary of the on-chain panorama.

No different from the giants trading Bitcoin via ETFs and CME futures in the US — who have already lost $8.5 billion since October and seen exposure plunge by two-thirds since the 2024 peak — Bitcoin Traders with a specific profile are also enduring historic losses. These are addresses with UTXO age between 1 and 3 months, balances from 10 to 10,000 BTC, that reject CEXs and miners, preferring self-custody in hard wallets. The result? An unrealized loss of $27.89 billion, or -23.39%. Just like the American institutional market, which trades at a persistent discount on Coinbase, this group faces the same selling pressure that knocked Bitcoin down more than 40%.

Even with the 3 pillars from the previous analysis — Accumulators (demand of 371.9K BTC), Retail (+6,384 BTC in 30 days) and Miners (MPI of -1.11) — sustaining the price between $66K and $70K and preventing an immediate collapse, the macroeconomic scenario indicates it is still too early for the bear market to end. The protection from these agents merely delays the inevitable: Bitcoin's encounter with deeper levels.

WHERE BTC MAY FIND BOTTOM

◾ Immediate Support → $60,000 – Region concentrating the highest trading volume from the first half of 2024.

◾ Realized Price → $54,800 – The last major on-chain defense. It's the average cost basis of all holders.

◾ Extreme Scenario → $42,000 – Levels not seen since February 2024.

THE BARE TRUTH

Loss has no class. Whether on Wall Street's glass-floored trading floors or in the solitude of a hard wallet, the entire market is hostage to the same bloodbath. ETFs and on-chain addresses share the same red. The recovery? It depends on price reaction at the levels above.

Written by GugaOnChain

• Ethereum is currently trading below the realized price of every whale cohort.

• The last time this occurred after an ATH was in September 2018.

Written by _OnChain