IamHarrie

Last year had a political shift that helped bring in a new wave of institutional building. Much of this work has focused on making existing systems reliable, compliant, and usable by institutions, particularly in the areas of stablecoins and payment coordination systems.
Here are five sectors that are likely to see greater focus, liquidity, and adoption going forward.
1. Stablecoins as a Global Payment Layer
One of the developments would be the use of stablecoins as a global payment layer built on crypto infrastructure, while remaining largely abstracted from users.
Over the past two years, stablecoin transfer volumes have exceeded those processed by Visa.
This shows that stablecoins are already operating as a parallel financial system rather than a theoretical alternative.
At the same time, TradFi companies are beginning to integrate crypto-based settlement into their existing payment rails. As this continues, application layers such as wallets, cards, and consumer platforms are likely to remain the primary point of user interaction, while stablecoins handle value transfer in the background.
Several blockchain networks are also beginning to issue their own native stablecoins to capture and accrue value generated by the activities on their networks, and more ecosystems will likely look to internalize settlement and liquidity.

2. Perpetual Markets and Asset Concentration
Perpetual futures markets account for a large portion of onchain trading activity. However, most of this activity is concentrated in a small number of assets.
Roughly 80% of all perps volume comes from Bitcoin. Around 15% comes from other major assets, while the remaining 5% is spread across smaller tokens that tend to experience short periods of activity before fading.
This pattern highlights that while new assets continue to appear, liquidity and sustained usage remain concentrated in established markets.
In addition to crypto-based perpetuals, equity-based perpetual products are beginning to emerge. Some platforms like Hyperliquid, tradexyz , RobinhoodApp and a couple of others have integrated or intend to offer exposure to traditional equities through crypto native systems.

3. Privacy and Confidential Transactions
As institutional participation increases, privacy has become a requirement.
Organizations need to protect sensitive transaction details while still allowing verification and compliance.
Confidential transactions are designed to meet this need. Rather than providing full anonymity, these systems allow transaction data to remain private while still being verifiable by authorized parties.
Several chains like Aptos and Sui have announced plans to integrate confidentiality into their tech stacks. This infrastructure will become an important part of future onchain systems, particularly for enterprise and institutional use.

4. Prediction Markets
Prediction markets continue to grow in usage and activity. A key change is that they are increasingly embedded into existing applications rather than operating as standalone platforms.
This integration makes them easier to access and use. They are being applied as tools to reflect shared expectations and sentiment across a range of topics, rather than as isolated products.

5. AI and Agent-Based Systems
AI agents and automated services are still early in development. Many approaches are being tested, and there are not too many single dominant models yet.
Crypto infrastructure provides tools for coordination, verification, and incentive design within these systems. The efforts of builders right now are focused on building dependable components that support more complex interactions over time, especially in payment and service networks.

A Word for Builders
As these systems mature, attention shifts from infrastructure to application and execution. For startups building in this environment, three objectives remain consistent.
→ Build a product that people want. The product should address problems that matter to users.
→ Second, build a community around the product. A strong community helps with feedback, distribution, and trust. When possible, this community should benefit from network effects, where the product becomes more valuable as participation grows.
→ Third, give ownership to the community. Ownership can help bootstrap early adoption and align incentives between builders and users.
The next phase is likely to be defined less by new ideas and more by how effectively these systems are combined, scaled, and tested in concrete use cases.

The flow of liquidity and revenue into the chain and meme tokens is largely tied to one activity: speculation. And it’s likely to persist for a while, because people will always want to speculate on trends, events, and even the news.
I did a little digging and found that the memecoin market is experiencing a gradual decline. Conservative estimates place trader losses from rug pulls in 2025 at around $8 billion, with most losses occurring when liquidity was removed after launch, making the tokens impossible to sell. Remarkably, 93% of these rug pulls were executed in under one hour.
The risk with speculation is that wrong choices are paid for with one’s portfolio, and consistent wrong choices can burn traders, leading them to pause or seek more stable and sustainable sources of liquidity inflow.
The next question would be, what happens to the token launchpads?

What’s happening with Launchpads?
Initially, what drew people into memecoins was the fact that you could see a promising token on Dexscreener, check its tokenomics, join the project’s Telegram group, and see the stats on holders and the developers themselves before buying in.
It was a good way to explore potential wins.
Today, there is a lot of Insider activity, sniper bots, and other automated strategies that make it easier to get rekt.
This has, in a way affected launchpad activity over the past year. Pumpfun, for instance, has seen fewer graduations and fewer active users daily, which also affects their revenue.

Occasionally, there are spikes in activity, but they are brief and rarely go beyond a certain timespan.

User Sentiment in Memecoins
User participation has also declined. Fewer wallets are actively engaging with new launches, and repeat participation has dropped as many users step away after negative experiences.
And by negative, I mean after getting used as the liquidity exit.
Although people continue to speculate on trends, news, and cultural moments (a whole market was built on that economy; prediction markets), the willingness to take early risks has diminished, so a growing number of users are moving towards more sustainable DEX activities.

It is way harder to find the next 10x or 1000x launch due to insider factors, early coordinated buyers, and automated bots that extract value almost immediately after launch.
To build on this, only a small number of memecoins currently maintain a market capitalization above $1 billion.

Most new tokens struggle to retain liquidity beyond the initial launch phase, and since capital does not remain on-chain long enough, user activity tanks or declines.

What’s next for Degenerates?
I’ll be as candid as possible. Memecoins, as a form of expression and speculation, are unlikely to disappear, as cultural interest continues to exist and new launches tied to events or public figures still draw attention.
However, these moments tend to be short-lived and do not develop into sustained market cycles or narratives.
For the market to stabilize, better structures with protection mechanisms are required.
Without these safeguards becoming common practice, speculative markets will still struggle to maintain trust.
Meaningful changes needs to happen, otherwise, memecoin activity across major launchpads is likely to remain under pressure and continue to decline.

Building a payment product for stablecoins requires a sharp focus on the US dollar. Unlike other digital assets, stablecoins are primarily used as a proxy for cash, and their value proposition hinges on trust, liquidity, and speed.
Institutions are drawn to stablecoins not for speculation alone but because they provide immediate settlement, transparent transaction records, and lower costs for cross-border payments.

They are particularly attractive in markets where access to traditional US banking is limited, offering both efficiency and inclusivity.
Stablecoins democratize access to the US dollar, creating a bridge for underbanked populations. They allow users to hold dollar-denominated assets while also tapping into yield opportunities in decentralized finance markets.
This dual function—access to stable value and potential returns—positions stablecoins as both a financial utility and a strategic instrument, aligning with broader economic interests. As demand grows, it could also strengthen the global influence of the US dollar.
Within the stablecoin economy, two major players dominate:
USDC and Tether.
While USDC primarily serves domestic markets in the United States and Europe, Tether has emerged as the global standard. Its widespread adoption in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia highlights the importance of network effects in payments.
Institutions seeking a reliable and broadly accepted digital dollar often find Tether’s reach and liquidity unmatched. For a global stablecoin payment product, focusing on USD-denominated assets is not optional—it is essential.
Existing blockchain infrastructures, however, pose limitations for payment-focused applications. Ethereum, while secure and decentralized, is often too costly and slow for high-volume transactions.

Tron offers faster and cheaper transfers but has legacy constraints and uneven trust among users. These gaps motivated the development of Plasma, a purpose-built blockchain designed specifically for stablecoin payments.
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Plasma prioritizes fast, low-cost, and gasless transfers for USDT, ensuring that sending money is seamless and efficient. Beyond speed and cost, the chain addresses privacy, regulatory compliance, and liquidity management. Its architecture separates transaction validation into specialized validator sets, enabling smooth and secure payment flows while preventing network spam.
Plasma also leverages Bitcoin’s security through bridging and state proofs, providing an added layer of trust and immutability.
The path to adoption is deliberate and strategic. Plasma targets both crypto-native users and local payment infrastructures, especially in regions with high stablecoin usage. By embedding itself into existing financial flows and building strong partnerships, Plasma seeks to become a practical alternative to legacy systems without relying on a broad but superficial deployment of protocols. Its goal is not merely to exist but to deliver meaningful value to users and institutions alike.
The business model emphasizes decentralization over profit extraction. Plasma is designed to be governed by the community, gradually transitioning control to users while maintaining network integrity. This approach mirrors the broader philosophy of blockchain: value creation through utility, trust, and distributed governance rather than centralized control.
Looking ahead, @Plasma is positioned to redefine how stablecoins are used for payments. By combining speed, privacy, global reach, and a user-centric architecture, it addresses key limitations of existing chains while unlocking new opportunities for institutional and retail users.
The project shows that purpose-built infrastructure, when aligned with a clear use case and market need, can drive both adoption and innovation in the stablecoin economy.

#Plasma $XPL

Like the internet is a protocol for connecting all computers and a way for them to communicate, LayerZero is a protocol establishing a way for blockchains to communicate or send state data between each other.
The core design principles at the root of every design decision made within LayerZero are that this infrastructure must be
ImmutableCensorship resistantFully permissionless.
Anyone can interact directly with LayerZero. Any smart contract and any user can use it without restriction.

The protocol has a permanent on-chain state. Even if all current operators shut down their infrastructure, new participants can take over and run it. It will always remain available to be operated by anyone.

One of the cool use cases is seen in bridges.

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The Crosschain Use Case
Historically, bridges became highly valuable because they allowed goods and services to coordinate across regions, which naturally led to financial systems forming around them.
Cross-chain infrastructure follows the same pattern. Developers and users must make trade-offs based on which chain they interact with, and each chain would usually have factors like finality, block time, and transaction costs come into play. While transferring assets from one chain to another looks like movement, in reality, it is simply a change in ledger state. In a cross-chain setting, this process becomes complex because each blockchain operates independently and has no visibility into the others.

To move assets safely, the system must verify that funds were deducted on the source chain before instructing the destination chain to credit them. If a receive call can be executed without confirmation from the origin chain, the protocol can be compromised. This risk led to tightly controlled bridge designs, centralized operators, or trusted intermediary chains. When those fail, every application that depends on them also fails.
Let's look at it like this..
Think of cross-chain like two islands in the ocean that cannot see or talk to each other. When you move assets from Island A to Island B, nothing is actually travelling across the water. What really happens is that the balance on Island A is reduced, and the balance on Island B is increased. For this to be safe, Island B must be sure that the assets were truly deducted on Island A.
If Island B allows anyone to say “the funds were removed” without proof from Island A, the system can be abused, and the assets can be created out of thin air. That is why early bridges relied on a single harbour master, a small group of trusted guards, or a central checkpoint to confirm movements between islands. When that checkpoint fails, every village that depends on it is put at risk.
Cross-chain is like two isolated islands connected by a fragile dock. If an attacker controls the dock, the second island can be drained. And if the dock can be changed or destroyed, the island’s survival is also threatened.

LayerZero replaces this centralized bridge gateway with a distributed, permissionless, and verifiable network that guarantees cross-chain messages are secure, reliable, and resistant to censorship or single points of failure.

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Understanding the Stack
Every blockchain that connects to LayerZero hosts an endpoint, essentially a smart contract that communicates with the protocol. Endpoints act as the entry and exit points for messages on each chain. They are responsible for passing instructions and data between different blockchains, enabling a seamless flow of information across the ecosystem.
Attached to each endpoint is a Message Library, or MessageLib. These libraries manage how messages are sent and verified across chains. Once a MessageLib is deployed, it remains permanent, which allows LayerZero to introduce updates without removing older versions. Developers can choose whether to use the older or newer libraries, providing flexibility similar to how software updates are handled in traditional applications.
While endpoints and message libraries manage onchain communication, LayerZero relies on off-chain components for verification:
The oracle andThe relayer.
The oracle retrieves essential transaction data from the source chain, such as block headers or events, and forwards it securely to the destination chain. The relayer, in turn, provides cryptographic proof that the data delivered by the oracle is accurate. This two-step verification ensures that no single party can tamper with messages, as both the oracle and relayer would need to collude to compromise a transaction.
It is important to clarify that oracles in LayerZero are not used for external data like price feeds or APIs. Their only job is to fetch transaction details from the source chain. Relayers do more than pass along messages; they independently confirm the integrity of the information as it travels across chains.
Here is how the process works in practice. When a user initiates a transaction on one chain, the oracle retrieves the relevant data and delivers it to the destination chain. The relayer separately sends cryptographic proof confirming the data’s authenticity.
The LayerZero endpoint on the destination chain then compares both inputs. If the oracle’s data matches the relayer’s proof, the message is executed. This approach ensures that cross-chain transactions are only finalized when independently verified, preventing fraud and exploits.

LayerZero V1 introduced this framework with the intention of fully decentralized verification

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The Security Layer
In V1, theoretically, anyone could run a relayer, allowing the network to operate trustlessly. In practice, however, running a relayer required massive infrastructure, including handling billions of calls per month and ensuring real-time secure execution. As a result, most applications relied on LayerZero Labs’ relayer and trusted oracles such as Chainlink.
Also, the relayer was responsible for both verification and execution. This setup created a single point of potential failure; if the relayer went down, transactions couldn't be processed, leading to bottlenecks, and it would also compromise the trustless vision of the protocol.

LayerZero V2 addressed this limitation with Decentralized Verifier Networks, or DVNs.

Which is the crux of this article, and my most fav part..
Let's get back.

Decentralized Verifier Networks, or DVNs, are the entities responsible for verifying messages sent across chains by applications using LayerZero.
Any system capable of cross-chain data packet verification, including native bridges, third-party bridges, middle chains, and oracles, can register as a DVN in V2. Applications can then choose a unique combination of DVNs to secure their messages, giving them full control over how verification is handled.
Most bridges have some method for listening to the source chain, tracking its state, and writing that state to the destination. DVNs expand on this by offering application flexibility and future-proofing. If a new verification method emerges that is faster, cheaper, or more secure, developers can add it to their applications without being forced into a one size fits all model. This means applications can configure any number and type of verification, ensuring that when improvements arise, they do not need to redeploy contracts or rebuild infrastructure from scratch.
One of the biggest shifts in V2 is the separation of liveness and security. Security now operates as a customizable structure of X of Y of N. For example, an application might define 15 DVNs and set a threshold of nine out of 15 signatures required for a message to be sent across chains.

Applications can also retain veto rights, ensuring that a single verifier or group of colluding networks cannot compromise their messages. This structure gives maximum security by balancing authority and fallback, letting the application owner safeguard their operations while leveraging a decentralized verification network.
With this approach, security in LayerZero V2 becomes completely permissionless. Previously, in V1, running decentralized verification was technically possible but complex and difficult to implement. Now it is implicit in the protocol itself, extremely easy to configure, and compatible with any existing third-party validation network.
Any validator set, messaging protocol, or native bridge can serve as a verifier, making LayerZero V2 a flexible and resilient foundation for cross-chain messaging.

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The Big Unlocks
An average observer might consider LayerZero to be just a bridge, but it is gradually becoming the most important infrastructure protocol in crypto. Here is why I think so.
→ Over 150 million messages have moved across the network, connecting more than 130 blockchain networks. With Starknet integration in January 2026, this now covers over 150 ecosystems. LayerZero has facilitated over one hundred billion dollars in digital asset transfers, with $6B moving each month. The network handles roughly 75% of all cross-chain messaging, processing about 1.5 million messages per month. This accounts for nearly three-quarters of all crosschain activity. Competitors like Wormhole and Chainlink CCIP cover fewer chains and operate with very different architectures.

→ LayerZero V2 introduced a modular security model using Decentralized Verifier Networks, or DVNs. Applications no longer rely on a single oracle-relayer pair. Developers can now choose how many verifiers must confirm a transaction, such as two-of-three or three-of-five, and each chain can have its own set of verifiers.
New chains can join without changing the core protocol, and security settings can be customized at the application level. This flexibility allows developers to future-proof their apps without redeploying contracts or altering underlying infrastructure.
→ Efficiency and user experience have also improved. V2 reduces latency and resource costs for cross-chain messaging. For users, this means faster and more reliable interactions. For decentralized applications, it enables smoother onboarding, higher engagement, and stronger retention. Protocols can grow confidently, knowing that their infrastructure scales with both users and transactions.
→ Institutional confidence is also building. A16z's $55M ZRO token purchase also shows a belief that omnichain messaging is becoming foundational infrastructure.
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LayerZero 2026 Outlook
LayerZero aims to capture the omnichain boom, connecting over 500 chains and facilitating more than $500 billion in cross-chain transfers. Key areas of focus include zero-knowledge verifiers, sustainable economic incentives, and modular cross-protocol interoperability.
Omnichain Pivot
As chain abstraction grows, LayerZero scales through zero-knowledge proof verifiers, enabling trustless, high-speed cross-chain messaging. By 2026, this could add over 50% more chains, surpassing 200, and drive $200 billion or more in transfers via enhanced Stargate and Somnia integrations. These developments enable seamless asset flows for autonomous DeFi protocols and gaming ecosystems.Sustainable Incentives
Post-token unlock, LayerZero is stabilizing the ecosystem through strategic buybacks that tie fees to $ZRO scarcity. Staking yields are targeted at 8 to 10%, encouraging relayer participation and supporting modular network growth. Estimated relayer engagement could increase by 15%, further strengthening crosschain reliability.Interoperability
LayerZero is evolving toward modular messaging similar to IBC, creating synergy across bridges and integrating securely with networks like Wormhole and Axelar. This hybrid model positions LayerZero as a verification layer for broader ecosystems, potentially increasing total value locked by 30% by the end of 2026.Risks and Mitigation
Regulatory oversight, from the SEC to MiCA, presents challenges for cross-chain messaging. LayerZero is proactively addressing these through compliant APIs aligned with Singaporean and EU frameworks, AML tools, and ESG-focused verifiers. If unmanaged, regulatory risks could reduce volume by up to 10%.

Plasma is a new Layer 1 blockchain built specifically for stablecoins and is going after a trillion dollar opportunity. It is already backed by major names like billionaire Peter Thiel and Paolo Ardoino, the CEO of Tether. Their goal is to build a stablecoin infrastructure for the entire global payment system.
What makes Plasma different and why is it positioned for a big win?
It all comes down to stablecoins, their market opportunity, and the early traction Plasma is already showing.
Plasma chain is purpose built for stablecoins and for creating the infrastructure of a global payment network. It is extremely fast, with around one thousand transactions per second, zero USDT transfer fees, and block times under one second. Being able to move any amount of money across the world for zero dollars is a major technological achievement.
It is EVM compatible, meaning it can plug directly into Ethereum, which has the largest total value locked of any blockchain. This allows Plasma to build a strong DeFi ecosystem immediately. Projects like Aave, Ethena, and Fluid are already committing to building on Plasma.
Plasma can also be thought of as a Bitcoin sidechain because it includes a native Bitcoin bridge. This allows it to access Bitcoin liquidity and bring it into Plasma, enabling users to earn yield and participate in DeFi more easily than before.
It currently supports over one hundred countries and over one hundred currencies, allowing users to send funds globally at zero fees.
One of the most important features is confidential payments. Blockchains are powerful because of their transparency, but that does not fit the use case of a global payment network. Payments need privacy. Plasma is bringing private transactions to blockchain based payments.
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Stablecoins and the Market Opportunity
The question is whether stablecoins are truly a trillion dollar opportunity. I believe they are, and that we are already there. Stablecoins are becoming one of the largest global payment networks in the world. In the last twelve months alone, stablecoins moved over thirty three trillion dollars, more than PayPal and Visa combined.
Stablecoin companies mint one digital dollar for every real dollar deposited and invest those dollars primarily in Treasury bills. This has made them some of the largest holders of US government debt.
Stablecoins succeed because they allow money to move in seconds with very low fees. Compared to traditional systems, which still take days and charge unnecessary costs, stablecoins already feel like modern financial infrastructure.
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Traction and Ecosystem
Plasma’s mainnet went live a couple of months back and is already among the largest blockchains by total value locked, reaching over seven billion dollars. This is remarkable when compared to chains like Base, Arbitrum, and Avalanche.
Before even discussing DeFi or token economics, Plasma’s fundraising model is worth noting. They sold 10% of the supply in a public sale at the same valuation as investors and capped individual participation.
This allowed everyday participants to benefit, not just venture capital. Many early contributors and community members also received significant airdrops, reinforcing community ownership and alignment.
Looking at the Plasma ecosystem, many major protocols are already preparing to deploy. These include leading lending platforms, major stablecoin issuers, and liquidity protocols like Curve and Pendle. Most of these projects operate at the intersection of DeFi and stablecoins, which aligns with Plasma’s purpose built design.
Users can already bridge into Plasma through existing infrastructure and deposit stablecoins into protocols earning yields around 25%. In a volatile market, this is one of the highest yield opportunities available on relatively low risk assets.
@Plasma 's token distribution allocates ten percent to the public, forty percent to growth and investors, and the remainder to team and long term incentives. Public sale participants received immediate liquidity outside the United States, while US participants have a twelve month lockup.
Despite its early traction, Plasma is still ranked outside the top fifty projects by market capitalization. Given its scale, backing, and adoption, it is difficult to justify its current position relative to many older or less relevant projects. This suggests there may still be time to build exposure before broader market recognition.
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Moving Forward
Plasma is not only infrastructure for stablecoins. It is also evolving into a digital bank. Users will be able to hold stablecoins, earn yield on balances, receive cashback, and spend globally through a card, all with zero fee transfers and support across more than one hundred fifty countries.
The most important takeaway is that stablecoins are already the number one real world use case for crypto. Plasma is building the blockchain designed specifically for that reality.
$XPL #Plasma

Whether you are building, investing, or networking, these are the major conferences that can define narratives in 2026.

February 2026
February 9–11: AIBC World
February 10–12: Consensus2026
February 17–21: EthereumDenver
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March – April 2026
Mar 30 – Apr 2: Eth CC
April 15–16: Paris BlockWeek
April 27–29: The Bitcoin Conference
April 29–30: Token2049
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May – June 2026
May 5–7: Consensus2026
June 1–3: AIBC World
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July – August 2026
July 21–22: Futurist Conference
August 20–2: Coinfest Asia
August 27–28: The Bitcoin Conference
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September – October 2026
Sept 29 – Oct 1: KBW Official
October 7–8: Token2049
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November – December 2026
November 2–5: AIBC World
November 9–12: WebSummit
November 15–17: Solana Conference
December 2026: The Bitcoin Conference
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2026 (To Be Announced)
2026 – BinanceBC Week
2026 – EFDevcon
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Which ones are on your calendar?
Which events should be added to this list?
This can help you plan your year in crypto, save it and share it with someone who needs it.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading in what looks like a correction and reaccumulation phase rather than a clear market top or a deep bear market bottom. Bitcoin is down about one third from its October 2025 all time high of $126,100 after a correction of roughly 36%, but it is still up around four to five times from the 2022 low near $16,000.
2025 ended slightly negative for Bitcoin, which was unusual for a post halving year. This supports the idea that the old four year halving cycle is no longer the main driver of price. Onchain valuation shows Bitcoin trading above its realized price, meaning the average holder is still in profit. This kind of environment is usually linked with consolidation or late cycle pullbacks rather than with major bottoms.
Network activity and fees are both low compared to the past two years. Addresses are still active, but transaction fees in both $BTC and USD are near multi year lows.
Long term holders have slowed their profit taking and only small pockets of capitulation have appeared. Mid sized whales have been selling, while very large holders and corporate treasuries have been more stable.
ETF flows were strongly negative from late 2025 into January 2026, with more than six billion dollars leaving Bitcoin spot ETFs. In early February, there was one very large single day inflow, which may be an early sign that selling pressure is easing.

For Ethereum, usage is high but cheap. Daily active addresses and transactions are close to two year highs, while fees are much lower than average. This is mainly due to network upgrades and the migration of activity to layer two networks.

Almost half of all $ETH is now staked, and another large share sits in institutional funds and corporate treasuries. This locks up a big part of supply and reduces what is freely traded.
Layer two networks such as Base and Arbitrum are growing fast and driving most of the activity, even though they pay relatively little to Ethereum mainnet in fees.
Ethereum still dominates stablecoins and tokenized Treasury assets, but low fee burn has led some traditional finance analysts to question how much value the base layer captures in the short term.
Social and narrative sentiment around ETH remains generally positive, but its price still moves mainly with Bitcoin.

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How the cycle works today
Bitcoin cycles used to be shaped mostly by the four year halving schedule. That pattern is weaker now because most Bitcoin has already been mined and the reduction in new supply is much smaller than in earlier years. This means demand and market structure matter more than the halving date.
ETFs and institutions have become major forces. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in tens of billions of dollars since launch and now move price through creations and redemptions. Public companies also hold a meaningful share of total supply. Ethereum is following a similar path, with ETH ETFs, staking products and corporate treasuries growing in size.
Macro conditions are also central. The US dollar weakened through 2025 and global liquidity has been improving, which has usually helped risk assets. At the same time, Federal Reserve policy remains a key short term driver. Tightening pushes crypto risk premiums higher, while easing supports demand. In this environment, macro and ETF flows matter more than halving cycles.

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Bitcoin cycle position
Bitcoin fell from its October 2025 peak after a strong rally driven by ETFs and macro conditions. Even after the correction, it is still far above the 2022 low. On chain valuation shows Bitcoin trading moderately above its cost basis, not extremely cheap and not extremely expensive.
Network usage is stable, but fees are very low. This suggests demand is present but speculative intensity is reduced. Holder behaviour shows that short term holders are close to break even and long term holders are mostly still in profit but are no longer selling aggressively.
Mid sized whales have reduced holdings, while very large holders and corporate treasuries have stayed fairly steady.
ETF flows were heavily negative into January, which matched falling prices and very weak sentiment. Recently, a large inflow appeared, which may signal a pause in the outflow trend. Social sentiment has swung to extreme fear, and narratives now focus on institutional adoption, currency weakness and skepticism about old cycle models.

Putting this together, Bitcoin looks more like it is in a mid to late cycle correction and reaccumulation zone rather than at a fresh peak or a deep bottom. Further downside is possible, but much of the excess from the previous rally has already been worked off.

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Ethereum structure inside a Bitcoin led cycle
Ethereum shows strong usage but weak direct revenue. Transactions and active addresses are high, while fees and burn are low. Upgrades increased capacity and reduced costs, and most activity now happens on layer two networks.
Despite this, Ethereum’s supply structure is becoming tighter. Nearly half of ETH is staked, and large amounts are held by institutions and corporate treasuries. Staking queues remain long, showing steady demand to lock ETH rather than sell it.

Regulatory clarity and new products have made staking accessible to funds and asset managers.
Layer two networks now drive much of Ethereum’s growth. Some are profitable, while many generate little fee revenue. Ethereum still plays a central role in stablecoins and tokenized Treasuries, which ties it closely to real world financial use.

Sentiment around ETH is constructive. Many see accumulation by medium sized wallets, continued layer two growth and institutional adoption as positive signs.
At the same time, concerns remain about how much value the base layer captures when fees stay low. In the next few months, ETH is likely to follow Bitcoin’s path but with larger swings, supported by staking and real world usage.
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Three possible paths over the next three to six months
Re accumulation and renewed advance

This path assumes a weak or stable dollar, improving liquidity, steady Federal Reserve policy and a return of consistent ETF inflows. On chain metrics would slowly improve without overheating. Bitcoin would grind higher from current levels and could challenge previous highs over time. Ethereum would likely outperform because of staking, layer two growth and ETF adoption.Prolonged digestion

This path assumes mixed macro signals and ETF flows that move in and out without a strong trend. Bitcoin would trade in a wide range as valuation and activity stay near neutral levels. Ethereum would mostly track Bitcoin, with short rallies on network news that fade back into the range. Staking and real usage would provide support but not a strong push higher.Deeper cyclical drawdown

This path assumes renewed macro stress or a new wave of ETF outflows. Bitcoin valuation would compress toward its cost basis and long term holders would begin selling at a loss more often. Usage and fees would likely fall further. Ethereum would probably fall more than Bitcoin in price terms, even though its structure remains strong. Right now, the data lean more toward the first two paths than toward an immediate deeper drawdown. ETF selling has already been heavy, valuation is moderate, and profit taking by long term holders has slowed. Macro conditions remain uncertain, so risk is still present.

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What to watch going forward
For Bitcoin, the main things to monitor are valuation relative to realized price, behaviour of short and long term holders, changes in network fees and transactions, ETF inflows and outflows, and the direction of the dollar and global liquidity.
For Ethereum, the key points are the share of supply being staked, validator queues, institutional and corporate holdings, the balance between layer one and layer two economics, ETH ETF flows, and Ethereum’s role in stablecoins and tokenized assets.
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Conclusion
From a cycle perspective, the current environment looks like a correction and reaccumulation phase within a market driven by institutions, ETFs and macro conditions. Bitcoin shows signs of meaningful cleansing after its 2025 peak but not of full capitulation.
Ethereum rests on strong structural foundations in staking, layer two usage and tokenized assets.
Whether a durable bottom is already in place will depend mainly on macro conditions and ETF flows. Much of the excess appears to have been removed, but the market remains sensitive to policy shifts and liquidity changes.
Tracking the indicators above provides a way to update this view over the next three to six months without relying on old halving based cycle models.

Over the last few months, we have seen a strong rise in onchain perp DEXs, with a good number of them developing their own competitive moats and capturing market share.
In 2025, trading volume on perp DEXs reached a record $12.09 trillion, having reached 65% of total lifetime volume within a single year.
At the most basic level, perpetuals allow people to trade with more money than they hold by using leverage. Someone with $10 can open a position as if they had $200. That is why perps became popular in crypto. They literally give small traders more exposure.
Decibel is one of those DEXs. Although it is currently in testnet, it is one of the products an entire chain is bullish on, and there are a couple of amazing things up its sleeve.
If you have been around Aptos for a while, you will most likely be familiar with the term Global Trading Engine. The idea is that anything you can do in the world can potentially be done more efficiently if everything is handled in a composable onchain way. Over time, Aptos has proven to be a good stack for onchain throughput and latency, which is an edge for products being built on top of it, Decibel being one of them.
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What’s the onboarding like?
This right here is one good reason, aside from having not so good products, why most people do not interact with certain apps. Some apps and products are built mainly for crypto native users, so a normie or someone who trades stocks and wants to try perps may experience friction at first.
While trying it out, I noticed one thing that was intentionally done to improve the user experience.
Normally, you need to download or have a specific wallet, since some wallets are chain specific. You also need to get some native token to pay for gas. So it is usually not as easy as just logging in and starting to use the app. It can take at least a couple of hours, or even a couple of days, if you do not already have an exchange set up to buy crypto.
But on Decibel, there are several wallet options to choose from. For normies, you can simply use Google sign in, and a wallet will automatically be created for you, tied to that particular social login.
A lot of users on chains like Solana or Ethereum, or any other chain, might not have an Aptos wallet. But they can just connect Phantom or MetaMask the same way they would connect to any other native dApp, and an Aptos wallet will be created for them.
You don’t need a new wallet to trade on Decibel. Fund from Aptos, Ethereum, Solana, or directly from a CEX. Cross-chain accounts on Decibel make it simple to position capital where you already are. Here’s a quick guide on how
When transferring USDC, you can move it across chains. Your USDC is burned on Solana and deposited on Aptos. In the same way, if you want to withdraw your USDC from your Decibel Aptos account, you transfer it back to your Solana wallet. This allows you to move funds easily between both chains without much being lost, and with most of the process abstracted away.
Also, Decibel works for both advanced traders and everyday users. You do not need to understand the technical side to use it. To make things easier, the team shares simple tutorial videos that show how the product works. These videos are posted on Decibel’s X account.
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Trade Execution Speed
I mentioned earlier that Aptos is a good tech stack for building products that depend heavily on speed and efficiency. Across their timeline, there are upgrades aimed at beating previous records in sub second finality.
This feature right here is another edge Decibel is leveraging.
Personally, I am not a fan of leverage above 20x or 30x. If you are going to trade with 50x, 100x, or more, execution has to be extremely fast, because a literal second can mean blowing up your portfolio. Your PnL card could look really good or really nasty because of this.
Speaking of which, the PnL card is really cool. I took a trade on BTC, and it is green right now.

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User Interface
Who does not love good design?
I would give the design team their flowers. The frontend design is impressive and runs without lag.

If there is one tab that does not work properly, it is the Points tab, which is a sub tab under “More”.
That would probably be integrated somewhere close to mainnet launch.
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Feedback and Iteration
Successful Web3 products do not grow only by having amazing features. They grow through people who feel involved in the product. Decibel is being developed in public, with early testers, builders, and traders invited to try it out.
This creates feedback loops that help the team build a better product that people love and iterate toward a higher level of utility.
A few weeks back, I noticed a bug in one of my market orders. The liquidation price was not consistent before and after executing the trade. A different liquidation price would show up once my trade was executed.
Here it is.

I gave the team feedback, and it has now been corrected.

It has been rectified
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Final Takes
Perps today mostly cover crypto assets, but long term, the same trading model on Decibel can apply to real world assets and traditional markets. Imagine idle liquidity on Decibel earning yield. It is all part of the plan.
This is what it looks like when infrastructure, user experience, and composability are treated as one system.

The conversation around institutional crypto adoption has focused on a narrow set of technical metrics. Speed, throughput, and cost efficiency are all important qualities of a strong technology stack, and they can improve the products built on top of it. However, these factors address secondary issues rather than the core problem.
The primary barrier is structural. Most existing blockchain architectures cannot reconcile the transparency that regulators require with the confidentiality institutions need.
Public blockchains expose transaction details to anyone observing the network. This creates immediate challenges for institutions that manage client assets or execute proprietary strategies. A pension fund rebalancing its portfolio cannot publicly reveal position sizes or trading patterns. An investment bank facilitating a private placement cannot expose client identities or deal terms on a public ledger.

The alternative has been permissioned networks that restrict access to approved participants. JPMorgan’s Onyx platform is a well-known example, operating on a controlled version of Ethereum where participants must be vetted before joining. While this approach reduces data exposure, it sacrifices the network effects and composability that make open blockchains valuable. As a result, institutions end up building isolated systems with limited interoperability.
Regulators face their own constraints. The SEC’s scrutiny of crypto markets stems in part from the difficulty of monitoring pseudonymous trading activity. In Europe, the European Banking Authority has made it clear that platforms handling client funds must maintain transparent audit trails and robust governance structures. These expectations intensified across jurisdictions following the collapse of FTX.
The result is a stalemate. Institutions need privacy, regulators need visibility, and most blockchain architectures force a choice between the two.

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Selective Disclosure as Infrastructure
Zero-knowledge cryptography offers a way out of this impasse. It allows one party to prove that a statement is true without revealing the underlying information. A fund can prove it meets accredited investor requirements without disclosing its portfolio. A trader can demonstrate sufficient collateral without exposing position sizes.
@Dusk has implemented this approach directly at the protocol level. Its core mission is to enable real-world assets such as stocks, bonds, and private equity to move on-chain while remaining fully compliant with existing financial regulations.

Through its Citadel protocol, Dusk embeds zero-knowledge compliance into base-layer infrastructure. Smart contracts can enforce regulatory rules such as investor accreditation, holding periods, and transfer restrictions while keeping transaction details private.
This architecture separates what must be proven from what must be revealed. Regulators can verify that rules are being followed without accessing sensitive commercial data. Market participants can transact privately while maintaining provable compliance with applicable regulations.

This design is reinforced by a Dusk EVM layer, which allows developers to build privacy-preserving smart contracts using familiar Ethereum tooling. Combined with its SBA consensus mechanism, which offers fast settlement and near-instant finality, Dusk provides infrastructure designed for financial markets rather than purely speculative use cases.

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Implications for Market Structure
If privacy-preserving compliance mechanisms can operate at scale, the implications extend beyond incremental efficiency gains. The ability to tokenize traditionally illiquid assets while maintaining regulatory compliance could reshape how capital is formed and traded.
Asset classes such as private equity, venture capital, and real estate often have long holding periods and limited liquidity in part because of the high costs associated with managing small investor bases and secondary transactions.
Compliant tokenization has the potential to significantly reduce these costs and expand access to these markets.

#Dusk $DUSK

We all know this experience from our conventional lives where you love an article or a piece of media. You go back to it later and it is gone. It is frustrating, and there is nothing you can do about it.
Web3 promised higher availability and higher security, but so far we have mostly delivered that only for transactions, only for the accounting layer. But the world is not built on accounting layers. The world is built on computing infrastructures. And computing infrastructures must first store things and ensure they are still there tomorrow, the week ahead and going forward.
Even today, the Web3 ecosystem has not fully integrated this yet. We see NFT collections that represent valuable digital assets, but the actual media is stored on Web2 servers.
When someone forgets to pay a bill or a service shuts down, the assets would disappear. Sometimes you try to use a decentralized application and the front end is gone. Now, the infrastucture would still exist, but the interface does not.
So we cannot talk about an onchain future for the full stack without usable onchain data and storage.
This is the challenge the team set out to tackle by building Walrus.

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What is Walrus?
@Walrus 🦭/acc is a protocol running on Sui that offers secure decentralized storage.
At a basic level, Walrus lets you store images, videos and websites and read them again with high assurance that they will still be there and that they will be exactly what you uploaded. But the bigger idea is that Walrus lets you program the data experience.

I am a grown up, you are also grown up, so it is safe to say that Walrus is storage for grown ups. Just humour though. Lets get back. 😊
You can manage resources, manage costs and manage lifecycles as part of your decentralized application. Because Walrus is a protocol on Sui, it is tightly integrated with the Sui programming model.
You can build things like tickets where ownership and metadata live on Sui, while the associated media lives on Walrus.

You can transfer them together.
You can reveal some parts and keep others private.
You can program both together.

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The Building Phase
Traditional decentralized storage takes a file and stores it everywhere. That is expensive. To prevent data loss, you end up storing hundreds of copies. Walrus uses erasure coding that breaks a file into encoded chunks and distributes them across nodes. No matter how many nodes you use, the cost stays roughly five times the original file size.
Up to two thirds of the storage nodes can disappear and you can still read data. About one third can disappear and you can still write data. As nodes fail or leave, the network heals itself and new operators take over.
Walrus also scales with hardware. The more nodes you add, the more storage capacity the network has. It grows with more demand.
Because #Walrus runs on Sui, all its economics, governance, staking and rewards are handled by smart contracts. This means storage assets can be used inside Sui DeFi and other Sui applications. It also means developers can write smart contracts that customize how Walrus operates.
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Use Cases
Walrus is both a storage network and an application platform.
With it, one key application was also shipped called Walrus Sites. It lets you upload and serve a website from decentralized storage through a normal browser, with no friction for users.
Walrus is currently live and reached mainnet in about a year. It has already stored over 440 terabytes of encoded data and around five million blobs. About half a million WAL has been spent on storage operations, and about one billion WAL has been staked to secure the network. Peak upload speeds exceed 80 megabytes per second.
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Closing Thoughts
The real reason to use blockchains is not just to compute or store, but to do so with strong guarantees: availability, integrity, confidentiality, and neutrality.
Decentralization means no one can exclude you, rewrite the rules, or extract rent from your users.
The vision is to push from transaction processing into storage, and then into deeper security primitives. For Walrus, that means cheaper, faster, and more reliable storage.

Do try it out.
Their token ticker is $WAL

Right now, the market is in a dip, and there have been a lot of liquidations over the last few days. Not just in crypto, but also in mineral assets like gold and silver.
Historically, liquidity follows a fairly predictable cycle. When mineral assets such as gold and silver begin to lose market cap, capital often rotates into crypto. When crypto weakens, liquidity typically flows back into more stable stores of value like precious metals or other stable assets.
That has been the usual cycle.
But this time is a little different.
At the moment, there is no clear correlation between asset classes. Mineral assets are down, and crypto assets are down as well. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader market are all declining simultaneously. Instead of liquidity rotating from one sector to another, it appears to be exiting the system altogether.

This speaks to how the market is being driven right now.
Without assigning blame or pointing fingers, from the perspective of a retail participant, someone who trades crypto and believes in the long term thesis, this is simply a very difficult environment to navigate.
Speculation in this market can quickly wipe out positions. Liquidations are easy to trigger, especially with leverage. While there are still potential catalysts that could spark bullish momentum, there are just as many sudden news events that could accelerate further downside.
In other words, risk is elevated on both sides. Because of that, this may not be an ideal time to trade aggressively.

What Do I Do?
In the current environment, there are two reasonable ways to approach the market, depending on your risk tolerance and objectives.
One approach is to move part of your portfolio into stablecoins and wait. You can also hold smaller positions in altcoins that have sufficient liquidity and more stable support levels.

Not large positions, just smaller exposure, and only in assets that can survive strong volatility. That is one way to stay in the game without overexposing yourself.Another perspective is to view the current dip as a buying opportunity. At these levels, prices can certainly look attractive. But a good entry point does not eliminate risk.If you are going to invest, only invest what you are willing to lose. Do not stake everything on the idea that this is the bottom. Convert part of your holdings into more stable assets and let the rest sit in the market carefully.

There is no specific time frame for recovery right now. There are news that can trigger a rebound, and there are also news that can trigger deeper bearish movement. Both are possible.
Until the market shows a clearer bullish direction, the safest position may be patience.
Protect your capital.
Be cautious with speculation.
Stay alive in the market.

#WhenWillBTCRebound
#marketcorrection