A strong and sudden pullback in gold, silver, and platinum after a sharp rally and consecutive new highs,
while the DXY continues to decline and the dollar weakens 💲
This dynamic could give the crypto market some breathing room, at least temporarily, and we may see a modest bounce if dollar weakness persists.
$BTC
$BTC
Based on this thesis, BTC should be in the process of forming / or has already formed, a pivot low around day 70 of the 140D cycle, particularly as the broader market narrative remains firmly bearish.
This suggests a short term upside continuation with range bound volatility into February, during which distribution is likely to occur before the next impulsive move to the downside.
For this outlook to be invalidated, BTC would need to break and hold below $80K. A simple sweep of $80K without acceptance below it would not be enough, in that case, a push higher into February would still remain the base scenario.
$BTC
Compression. (green lines)
*Compression refers to a period of low volatility where an asset's price "coils" into a tighter and tighter trading range. This pattern indicates a state of indecision in the market, with balanced buying and selling pressures, which often precedes a significant price movement or "breakout".
Context thus far:
1. Breakdown and subsequent rejection from megaphone (yellow) [bearish].
2. Breakdown and subsequent rejection from wedge (white) [bearish].
3. Compression zone. Readying for volatility.
However, there are conflicting elements at play. There is extremely low sentiment, which would indicate a bottom could be near. But from a TA standpoint, things look to continue lower.
Imo, one way to resolve both of these elements (super low sentiment + bearish TA) is this potential outcome:
A quick, flash dip down (resolving the bearish TA), followed by a big counter trend rally shortly after (resolving the low sentiment).
Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
🚨 BITCOIN IS STILL STUCK, AND I KNOW EXACTLY WHY.
Most traders expected chaos once december options came off.
Instead, bitcoin went NOWHERE.
Nothing broke out because nothing was allowed to…
The positioning just moved down the calendar.
Here’s exactly what changed:
A large chunk of december gamma expired, but institutions didn’t give up.
They rolled size into january and february.
Same strikes, same levels, just more time.
So the pin didn’t disappear, IT ACTUALLY MOVED.
That keeps price artificially stable in the short term, but it comes with a cost.
Flat price isn’t free. Time decay keeps draining those trades until someone gives up.
Now, think about the macro backdrop:
– Liquidity is not expanding
– Rates are still restrictive
– Funding conditions are getting worse
– Spot depth is thin and flows are fragile
This is not the environment where suppressed volatility resolves higher.
What usually happens next in setups like this is simple:
When the cost outweighs the benefit, exits happen ALL AT ONCE.
I’m not looking for upside here. I’m watching for a forced release lower once the january structure starts to break.
Options flows can postpone the move, but they NEVER erase it.
You need to focus on pressure points, that’s all.
$BTC
WHAT I'M ABOUT TO TELL YOU ISN'T IN ANY WALL STREET RESEARCH NOTE
Everyone's debating which domino falls first: Japan? Private credit? Equity concentration? Consumer collapse?
They're asking the wrong question.
I've spent 400+ hours analyzing funding market data most analysts never see.
Here's what I found:
All four risks share ONE hidden vulnerability.
Cross-currency basis dislocation + repo market stress.
When that channel spikes, they don't fall sequentially.
They fall TOGETHER. Within days. Not months.
The evidence is already flashing:
→ Treasury fails hit $30.5B last week. 8-year high.
→ Fed's RRP buffer: collapsed from $2.4T to $1.5B. Gone.
→ Japanese hedge ratios at 14-year lows. Exposed.
→ Public BDCs pricing 10-15% defaults vs 2% reported.
→ Subprime auto at 15.78%. Above 2008 peak. Right now.
The mainstream sees four separate problems.
I see one detonator.
My prediction:
If JPY/USD cross-currency basis widens past -75bps for 5+ days before March 31, 2026, you'll see synchronized forced selling across Japan, private credit, AND equities within 72 hours.
Not sequential dominoes.
Simultaneous collapse.
The window is January-March 2026.
The BOJ meets January 22-23.
The Fed meets January 28-29th.
Japanese fiscal year-end is March 31st.
Nobody is watching the right indicator.
Now you are.
Bookmark this. Set your reminder.
Let's see if this ages well.
$BTC
💫💖🌹 @Square-Creator-fdf154d301d7c "Réflexions"
$BTC Bitcoin n’a pas évolué.
C’est notre regard qui a mûri.
Nous l’avons pris pour un jeu,
puis pour un danger,
avant d’y voir un chiffre.
Un jour, le silence devient clair :
ce n’est pas un outil de plus,
c’est une ligne morale gravée dans le code.
Quand tout vacille,
ce qui ne peut être altéré
devient refuge.
Merci pour tes publications 🙏
Bienveillament ✨️
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
💫💖🌹 BONJOUR @patiencevertus
🌟 TRADING : STOP LOSS & TAKE PROFIT (OBLIGATOIRES) 🌟 Si tu trades sans Stop Loss et Take Profit, tu trades sans protection ❌
Voici l’essentiel à comprendre
🛑 STOP LOSS (Limiter les pertes)
Le Stop Loss est un ordre qui ferme automatiquement ta position quand le prix va contre toi afin d’éviter une grosse perte.
📌 Exemple :
Achat à 100 €
Stop Loss à 95 €
➡️ Si le prix baisse à 95 €, la position se ferme automatiquement
➡️ Perte contrôlée : -5 €
Le Stop Loss se place là où ton analyse est invalidée, pas au hasard.
🎯 TAKE PROFIT (Sécuriser les gains)
Le Take Profit est un ordre qui ferme automatiquement ta position quand le prix atteint ton objectif de gain.
📌 Exemple :
Achat à 100 €
Take Profit à 110 €
➡️ Si le prix monte à 110 €, la position se ferme
➡️ Gain sécurisé : +10 €
⚖️ RÈGLE D’OR DU TRADING
✔ Toujours placer le Stop Loss AVANT le Take Profit
✔ Ne jamais déplacer un Stop Loss par émotion
✔ Risquer seulement 1 à 2 % du capital par trade
🥰 Conclusion
📉 Stop Loss = survie
📈 Take Profit = discipline
🧠 Les deux = trading professionnel
J'espère que j’ai répondu à ta question 🙏
Bienveillament ✨️,
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫